2020년 글로벌 디램 투자는 전년대비 20% 감소.

하이닉스의 연도별 CAPEX(디램과 낸드 합한 것):

    6.65조원(2015년)-->6.29조원(2016년)-->10.30조원(2017년)-->17조원(2018년)-->12.7조원(2019년).

    회사는 2020년1월 실적 발표시 2020년 설비 투자액은 2019년보다 적을 것이라고 말했다.

 

2020.08.21

https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20200821PR201.html

DRAM capex spending to decline 20% in 2020, says IC Insights.

2020년 디램 설비투자는 전년대비 20% 감소할 것.

 

The DRAM market is poised for a modest recovery in 2020, but suppliers are being very cautious and strategic,

and thorough in their analysis of market conditions before they consider any further upgrades or decide to move ahead with any new DRAM wafer fab plans, according to IC Insights.

2020년 디램 시장은 전년에 비해 완만한 회복을 보이고 있으나, 제조사들은 신규 디램 공장을 건설하는데는

매우 조심스럽고 전략적인 접근을 하고 있다.

 

Three major DRAM suppliers - Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron Technology - are expected to make further cuts in their DRAM capital spending in 2020 as most new facilities and upgrades to current fabs are in place to handle near-term demand, IC Insights indicated.

디램 공급 3사는 2020년 캐펙스 비용을 더욱 감소시킬 것으로 예상된다고 IC Insights는 분석했다.

 

Samsung's DRAM capital expenditure budget will decline 21% to US$4.9 billion this year, while SK Hynix will trim its DRAM capex budget 38% to US$4 billion. Micron is expected to cut its DRAM capex by 16% this year to US$3.6 billion.

삼성의 디램 투자는 전년대비 21% 감소한 49억달러로 감소할 것이고, 하이닉스는 38% 감소한 40억달러를 투자할 것.

마이크론도 전년대비 16% 감소한 36억 달러를 투자할 것.

 

New fabs, once built, must run at very high or full capacity given the high levels of capital expenditures required to build and equip them. Investing US$6-10 billion in a wafer fab only to see it operate at partial capacity would have a destructive financial impact on any supplier. Consequently, DRAM makers will continue to closely monitor capacity and expansion plans in the coming months in order to limit potential damage from another supply/demand imbalance, IC Insights said.

 

Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron are wrapping up their significant DRAM capacity expansions in 2020, and each has made it clear that they will be restrained about how fast they progress with building and ramping their new manufacturing lines, IC Insights noted.

삼성,하이닉스와 마이크론은 2020년에는 상당한 디램 투자 확대를 마감하고 있다.

또 각 회사는 신규 공장을 건설하고 양산하는 것에 대한 속도를 조절할 것이라는 것을 명백히했다고

IC인사이트는 언급했다.

 

Even smaller niche DRAM suppliers like Winbond are being guarded, IC Insights continued.

Winbond is building a new fab in Kaohsiung, southern Taiwan, which was originally scheduled for completion

at the end of 2020 with commercial production slated for 2021.

However, the company has now rescheduled equipment move-in for January 2022.

심지어는 더 작은 틈새 품목 디램 제조업체인 윈본드조차도 대만 남부 카오슝에 건설하기로한 공장을

2020년말 완공, 2021년 상업 생산할 계획이었으나, 회사는 장비 입고를 2022년1월로 연기했다. 

 

Collectively, suppliers are expected to allocate US$15.1 billion to DRAM capex spending this year, a 20% decline from US$19.1 billion in 2019 and down from the record high of US$23.2 billion spent for DRAM in 2018, IC Insights said.

정확히 말해서 디램 제조사들은 올해 디램 캐펙스로 151억달러를 투자할 것이다.

이는 2019년 투자 금액 191억달러에서 20% 감소한 금액이며, 2018년 디램 투자액 최고 금액이 232억달러로 부터도

감소한 금액이다.

 

Even with elevated capital spending levels the past few years, DRAM capex as a percent of DRAM sales was not terribly out of line with what the industry has seen since 2015, IC Insights suggested. It is interesting to note, however, that with the 37% DRAM market collapse in 2019, DRAM capex spending as a percent of sales jumped to 30.5%, the highest level since 30.5% in 2011.

지난 몇년간 디램 투자액은 증가하였지만, 디램 매출액대비 투자금액 비율은 2015년이래 보여준

산업 평균 투자 비중과도 일치하지 않는다.