2021년 마이크론 주가를 상승시킬 5가지 순풍
2020.10.07
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/05eeb5bf-ac3d-3958-8f6a-4c4f42e002da/5-tailwinds-that-will-propel.html
5 Tailwinds That Will Propel Micron's Stock Higher in 2021
The 5G, cloud, PC, gaming, and auto markets could all help the chipmaker resume its cyclical recovery.
2021년 마이크론 주가를 상승시킬 5가지 순풍.
5G, 클라우드, PC, 게임기와 자동차 시장이 메모리 주식이 씨클리컬 회복이 시작되는 것을 도울 것이다.
1. 마이크론 사장은 컨콜에서 5G 스마트폰이 2021년 회사의 성장을 이끌 것으로 기대.
5G 스마트폰 판매는 2020년 2억대에서 2021년 5억대로 증가할 것으로 예상.
5G 스마트폰은 이전 스마트폰보다 더 많은 디램과 낸드를 장착한다.
5G 시장은 2021년부터 2025년까지 복리로 연율 43.9%로 성장할 것.
2.클라우드 시장.
코로나 사태로 데이터센터의 서비스 사용 증가로 용량에 부하가 걸리면서
데이터센터향 디램 출하량이 강하게 증가했다.
클라우드 시장에서 2년에서 4년이 걸렸을지도 모를 트렌드가 몇개월만에 이뤄졌고,
이 추세는 앞으로도 계속될 것이다라고 마이크론 사장은 언급했다.
Micron stock recently dipped after the memory chipmaker posted its fourth-quarter earnings.
Its revenue rose 24% year-over-year to $6.06 billion, beating estimates by $170 million,
while its adjusted EPS jumped 93% to $1.08 and exceeded expectations by $0.11.
Those headline numbers were impressive, but its first-quarter guidance broadly missed expectations.
It expects its revenue to rise 1% year-over-year at the midpoint, and for its earnings to slip 2%.
Analysts had expected its revenue and earnings to rise 4% and 42%, respectively.
During the conference call, CEO Sanjay Mehrotra attributed the slowdown to the "unprecedented combination of a global pandemic and U.S. restrictions on shipments to Huawei," which still accounted for around 10% of its revenue in the fourth quarter.
Despite those near-term challenges, Micron remains optimistic about its growth prospects for fiscal 2021. Let's discuss five upcoming tailwinds Micron highlighted during the call, and how they could propel its stock higher.
1. The 5G market
Mehrotra expects upcoming 5G phones to be a "strong driver of growth" in 2021, and for the industry to face easier comparisons to its pandemic-throttled shipments in fiscal 2020. Micron expects global 5G handset volumes to rise from 200 million in 2020 to 500 million in 2021. Moreover, Mehrotra expects 5G phones to require higher-capacity DRAM and NAND chips, which will boost its revenue per device.
Mehrotra believes "Micron is well-positioned to win in the 5G era as a supplier to all the major smartphone manufacturers, with an outstanding portfolio of industry-leading low power DRAM and managed NAND solutions." He notes Micron "achieved a record number of design wins" across the mobile market during the fourth quarter.
Micron is also seeing 5G network deployments, particularly in Asia, boost demand for its DRAM chips.
Therefore, the expansion of the 5G market -- which could grow at a compound annual growth rate of 43.9% between 2021 and 2027, according to Grand View Research -- could amplify Micron's recovery in 2021.
2. The cloud market
Micron reported stronger shipments of DRAM chips to cloud customers throughout the COVID-19 crisis,
as the elevated usage of cloud-based services pressured the computing capacity of data centers.
During the call, Mehrotra noted that some trends in the cloud market which "would have taken two years to four years to develop have been accelerated into months and will likely persist into the future."
Mehrotra expects sales to the cloud market to remain "healthy" throughout the entire year.
3. The PC market
Sales of PCs also surged throughout the pandemic, as more people worked from home or bought new gaming PCs. Mehrotra noted the "work-from-home trend drove strong demand for notebooks" during the fourth quarter, which offset weaker sales of desktops. That growth lifted sales of both its DRAM and NAND chips.
Micron's NAND sales were also buoyed by a higher mix of its QLC NAND chips, which support the production of cheaper and higher-capacity SSDs (solid-state drives). It's also launching new NVMe-based SSDs, which are significantly smaller and faster than traditional SATA SSDs, for high-end PCs.
Mehrotra expects Micron to expand its SSD and NVMe portfolio "over the course of 2020 and 2021" for the consumer and enterprise markets.
4. Gaming consoles
Micron benefited from robust sales of gaming consoles in the fourth quarter as people played more games at home. But looking ahead, it expects Microsoft's (NASDAQ:MSFT) Xbox Series consoles and Sony's (NYSE:SNE) PS5 to boost demand for its next-gen GDDR6 DRAM chips, which are optimized for high-end graphics.
Microsoft and Sony will both launch their new consoles this holiday season, and the crowded preorders suggest the pent-up demand could easily outstrip the supply. Mehrotra expects that market to "drive growth" for Micron throughout fiscal 2021.
5. The automotive market
Lastly, the COVID-19 crisis shut down most of the auto industry in the second half of fiscal 2020, but Micron saw a "strong recovery" near the end of the fourth quarter and expects sequentially higher sales of automotive chips in the first quarter.
Micron expects both "DRAM and NAND content growth" to continue as a "secular trend" across the automotive market, thanks to more advanced infotainment systems and the rise of semi-autonomous and autonomous vehicles.
The key takeaways
Micron's first-quarter guidance likely disappointed investors, who expected sales of its DRAM and NAND chips to accelerate significantly with higher market prices. However, investors who already reined in their expectations throughout the tech war and pandemic probably weren't surprised.
But if we tune out all the near-term noise, we'll realize that Micron is still on the cusp of a cyclical rebound, and the growth of the 5G, cloud, PC, gaming, and auto markets might lift its stock -- which trades at just nine times forward earnings -- to fresh highs in 2021.