서버 디램 가격은 2021년3분기에 전분기대비 5-10% 상승할 것
2021.08.11
Server DRAM Prices Expected to Rise by 5-10% QoQ in 3Q21 Due to Peak Season, Says TrendForce
서버 디램 가격은 2021년3분기에 전분기대비 5-10% 상승할 것.
Suppliers and clients in the server DRAM market are still having difficulty in reaching agreements on prices for 3Q21 contracts even though the quarter is well underway, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations.
트렌드 포스의 최근 조사에 의하면 서버 디램 공급자와 수요자 사이에 3분기 가격 협상이 타결에 이르는데
어려움을 겪고있다고 합니다.
Hence, server DRAM contract prices are much more varied than before. Regarding the price trend in July, contract quotes for the mainstream 32GB RDIMMs rose by 5-7% MoM.
서버 디램 공급 가격은 전보다 더 다양화 되었다.
7월 서버 디램 32GB 모듈 가격은 전월대비 5-7% 상승하였다.
However, the price hikes have led to a reduction in demand, and there are indications that server DRAM sales bits will register some decline for 3Q21.
하지만 가격 상승은 수요 감소를 가져왔고, 서버 디램 매출 빗그로스가 3분기에는 감소할 것이라는 징조가 있다.
The release of server CPUs based on the new platforms is driving the procurement of higher-density 64GB RDIMMs, but this has not resulted in a significant corresponding increase in content per unit.
서버 신규 CPU 발매가 고용량 64GB 모듈 확보 수요를 견인했으나 ,
이것이 서버 한대당 장착량을 크게 증가시키지는 못했다.
The general trend for buyers is to replace two 32GB modules with one 64GB module, rather than a one-to-one replacement as DRAM suppliers previously expected. Contract prices of 64GB RDIMMs rose by 5-7% MoM for July, though prices were below this range for some transactions.
일반적인 경향은 32GB 모듈 2개 장착하는 것대신에 64GB 모듈램 1개를 장착하는 것이지,
디램 공급자들이 기대하듯이 32GB 2개를 64GB 모듈 2개로 대체하는 것이 아니다.
64GB 서버 모듈램 가격은 7월에 전월대비 5-7% 상승하였다.
TrendForce’s analysis shows that server DRAM suppliers and buyers are finding it difficult to reach a consensus on prices because DRAM suppliers expect that the demand for server DRAM modules is going to surge in 3Q21
as the third quarter is the traditional peak season for the server market.
트렌드포스의 분석에 의하면 서버 디램 공급자와 수요자 사이에 가격에 대한 합의를 이루는데
어려움이 있다고한다.
왜냐하면 서버 디램 공급자들은 3분기는 전통적으로 호황인 ㅣ자으로 수요가 증가한다고 생각하기 때문이다.
As well, suppliers also anticipate that the adoption of new server processor platforms will increase the memory content in servers. With a more optimistic demand outlook, suppliers have adjusted their product mixes to allocate more of their production capacity to server DRAM.
또 메모리 제조사들은 신규 서버 CPU 채택이 서버당 메모리 장착량을 증가시킬 것으로 예상하여,
생산 라인을 서버 디램 생산에 많이 할당하였다.
Hence, the supply fulfilment rate has risen significantly in the server DRAM market in 3Q21.
Server DRAM buyers, on the other hand, already have a high level of inventory.
그래서 2021년3분기 서버 디램 공급 충족률은 상당히 증가하였다.
달리 말해서 서버 디램 매수자들은 상당히 많은 재고를 축적하게 되었다.
Clients in the data center segment were aggressively stockpiling during the first half of this year
due to worries about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the supply chain.
They now need some time to consume their inventories and are reluctant to procure more DRAM modules.
데이터센터 고객사들은 상반기에 코로나로인한 공급망 붕괴 우려로 공격적으로 재고를 축적하였다.
그들은 이제 재고를 소비할 시기가 필요하며, 더 많은 디램을 확보하기를 꺼리고 있다.
Contract prices will be constrained to rise further in 4Q21 as demand side has turned conservative
2021년4분기에는 수요자들이 보수적으로 바뀌었기 때문에 디램 계약가가 더이상 오르기에는 힘들 것이다.
Currently, enterprise server OEMs in North America have finished arranging their quarterly contracts,
whereas numerous cloud service providers and Chinese enterprise server OEMs are still in the midst of negotiations.
현재 북미 시장의 기업용 서버 OEM업체들은 분기 계악을 끝냈으나, 다수의 클라우드 서비스업체와
중국 기업용 서버 OEM업체들은 여전히 가격 협상중이다.
TrendForce believes that, in order to reach their targets for sales and shipments, server DRAM suppliers may be willing to cut more “special deals” for server DRAM products in August.
Specifically, suppliers will push for lock-in contracts that offer adjustable prices for fixed quantity.
On the whole, the general behaviors of DRAM buyers with regards to procurement have changed noticeably form the first half of this year.
As the demand related to servers, PCs, and other major applications slows down, the whole DRAM market will gradually shift to the state of oversupply. Since the DRAM market is an oligopoly, the major suppliers will still have a significant leverage in price negotiations. Quotes for server DRAM products could therefore rise further by 5-10% QoQ in 3Q21. However, given that prices have yet to be finalized for a substantial portion of 3Q21 contracts, the transaction volume is also very limited. This, in turn, will inevitably create a lot of uncertainties with respect to the price trend in 4Q21.