마이크론 2022년1분기 전망치 약세로 시간외 하락(2021.09.29)
2021.09.29
마이크론은 장 마감후 2021년 회계년도 4분기(6월-8월말) 실적 발표.
Micron Technology, Inc. 2021 Q4 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (NASDAQ:MU) | Seeking Alpha
4분기 매출 83억달러, 영업익 31억달러, 순이익 28억달러 달성.
2021년 연간으로 매출 277억달러, 영업익 77억달러, 순이익 70억달러, 주당 순이익 6.06달러 달성.
4분기 실적은 시장 예상치 상회하였으나 회계년도 2022년1분기(9월-11월말) 전망치가 시장 예상치를 하회하면서
시간외 거래에서 4%대 급락했다.
회계년도 2022년1분기 실적 전망치: 매출 76.5억달러(플마 2억달러), 영업익 9.15억달러(플마 0.25억달러)
주당 순이익 2.10달러(플마 0.10달러).
요약: 마이크론 사장은 실적 발표 컨콜에서 시장 예상치에 못미치는 회계년도 2022년1분기 실적 전망치를 발표.
이유는 메모리를 필요로 하는 최종 제품의 수요는 많으나 메모리를 제외한 다른 부품 부족으로
(코로나 확산으로 인한 말레이시아 부품 공장의 생산 중단) 주문받은 완제품 자체를 조립하기에 힘든 상황이며
그러나 이 상황은 다른 부품 부족 사태가 완화되면 상황이 반전될 것으로 예상함.
Micron Earnings: Speed Bumps Are No Reason To Sell (NASDAQ:MU) | Seeking Alpha
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MU 73.10 -2.08 -2.77% : Micron Technology, Inc. - Yahoo Finance
A slowing of orders from PC makers is a short-term issue, according to Mehrotra.
Some of his customers are struggling to get other types of components, meaning they can’t build all of the laptops and desktops that have been ordered. That’s led them to reduce memory inventory.
The situation will reverse when industrywide shortages ease in the coming months, he said.
"컴퓨터 제조사로 부터의 주문 감소는 단기적인 이슈이다"라고 메로트라 마이크론 사장은 언급했다.
다수의 컴퓨터 제조사들은 메모리를 제외한 다른 부품 부족으로 주문받은 컴퓨터 모두를 만들 수없는 상황이다.
이것이 고객들이 메모리 재고를 줄이려는 이유이다.
이러한 상황은 향후 산업 전반의 부품 부족 사태가 완화되면 반전될 것이다.
“PC is just one market but we have all of these other strong markets as well,” Mehrotra said in an interview.
“The industry -- memory and storage -- is a different place today from in the past.”
컴퓨터 시장은 여러 시장가운데 한 부문일 따름이다. 이를 제외한 다른 시장 모두는 수요가 강한 상태이다.
메모리와 스토리지(디램과 낸드) 산업은 과거와는 다른 위치가 되었다.
Mehrotra said Micron isn’t expecting PC growth to continue at the frantic pace of the last year, but will settle at a much higher level of unit shipments than in the past. And other markets, such as automotive and industrial equipment, are growing quickly. Data centers have already overtaken PC to become the biggest user of memory, Mehrotra noted.
마이크론 사장이 말하길 PC 시장이 작년과 같은 고성장을 지속할 것으로 생각지는 않지만,
과거보다 지금은 컴퓨터 한대당 디램과 낸드 장착량이 높은 수준으로 증가했다고 한다.
또 자동차나 산업장비와 같은 시장이 빠르게 성장하고 있다.
데이터센터 시장의 메모리 수요는 이미 PC 시장을 넘어서 가장 큰 메모리 수요 시장이 되었다고 마이크론 사장은
언급했다.
Even before Tuesday’s news, Micron’s shares have lagged behind a broader run-up for chip stocks. Investors have remained cautious about the long-term prospects for companies in historically the most volatile part of the $400 billion industry.
Micron is coming off a surge in fiscal 2021, when heavy demand allowed the company to charge more. Its sales were $27.7 billion in the period, a record level and more than twice the total from five years ago. Over the years, the Boise, Idaho-based company has reported sales declines of more than 20% and gains of as much as 80%.
In the fiscal fourth quarter, Micron posted revenue of $8.27 billion, up 36% from a year earlier.
Net income was $2.72 billion, or $2.39 a share, in the period, which ended Sept. 2.
Micron is part of a global semiconductor supply chain that’s struggled to keep up with the pace of orders -- partly due to the pandemic. The shift to working from home spurred the need for technology, and production has also been disrupted by new flare-ups of Covid-19, which has caused factory shutdowns in hubs such as Malaysia.
마이크론은 현재 반도체 주문을 따라가지 못하고 있는-부분적으로 코로나 사태에 기인하는- 반도체 공급망의 일부이다.
기술과 생산을 필요로 하던 재택 근무로부터 현장 근무로의 이동은 말레이시아와 같은 나라에 위치한
공장의 생산 중단을 유발한 새로운 코로나 확산으로 방해받았다.
Investors have expressed concern that the memory-chip boom was fueled in part by customers’ panic buying the products and hoarding inventory. Micron’s CEO said inventory levels are fine across his customers and low at memory producers.
투자자들은 메모리 시장의 호황이 고객들의 공급망 붕괴를 우려한 공포 매수로 인한 것인지를 우려하고 있다.
마이크론 사장은 고객들 재고도 양호하고 메모리 공급자 재고도 낮은 편이라고 말했다.
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마이크론 컨콜
Micron holds an excellent position in the fast-growing graphics market with a broad product portfolio featuring our proprietary GDR 6X product line, and deep partnerships with leading GPU suppliers.
FQ4 mobile revenue increased more than 25% year-over-year, driven by continued unit sales and content growth. We expect overall smartphone unit sales to grow this year, with sales up over 500 million 5G mobile phones forecasted.
These contents 5G phones featured more than 50% higher DRAM and doubled the NAND content than 4G phones. We expect 5G and AI to drive new innovation in applications such as AI optimized video capture and editing,
that will fuel DRAM and NAND content growth for years to come.
4분기 모바일 부문 매출은 전년 동기대비 25% 증가.
2021년 5G 스마트폰 판매량은 5억대에 달할 것이고 5G 스마트폰은 4G 스마트폰에 비해 디램은 50%,
낸드는 100% 더 장착된다.
인공 지능으로 장착된 비데오와 같은 응용처에서 5G와 인공지능은 새로운 혁신을 이어갈 것이다.
We are continuing to see strong demand in our edge markets, which includes automotive and industrial IOT.
We expect our automotive and industrial markets to be the fastest-growing memory and storage markets
over the next decade. As the number one player in these markets, Micron is exceptionally well-positioned
to benefit from these secular growth trends.
우리는 자동차나 산업용 사물인터넷과 같은 엣지 시장에서 강한 메모리 수요를 보고 있다.
이 시장은 향후 10년간 가장 빠르게 성장하는 시장이 될것이고, 마이크론은 지속적인 성장에서
이익을 취할 것이다.
Other automotive businesses delivered a fourth consecutive record quarter, driven by continued recovery in auto manufacturing and the growth of memory and storage content driven by in-vehicle-infotainment and driver assistance applications.
우리는 자동차 부문에서 4분기 연속 매출 신기록을 달성했다.
자동차 인포테인먼트와 주행 보조 장치는 디램과 낸드 장착량 증가를 가져왔다.
Industrial IOT revenues also set records in the Fiscal Fourth Quarter, benefiting from the continued growth of applications, such as point-of-sale devices, factory automation, and surveillance. We expect industrial demand trends to accelerate further, at 5G speeds, that adoption of data-intensive applications powered by Intelligent Edge infrastructure.
산업용 사물인터넷 부문도 4분기에 최고 실적을 달성했다.
컴퓨터로 관리되는 판매 장치, 공장 자동화와 관리등에 의한 응용처의 지속적인 성장이 있었다.
지적 엣지 인프라 건설로 데이터 집약적인 응용처의 채택이 5G 속도로 증가하고 있다.
We're also seeing an acceleration in other consumer IOT businesses driven by rapid growth in device sales such as VR headsets, smart exercise equipment, and smart speakers. Turning to market outlook calendar 2021 is shaping up to be a strong year. We expect calendar 2021 industry DRAM, bit demand growth to be in the low 20% range.
소비자용 사물인터넷 부문도 VR헤드셋, 스마트 시험 장비와 스마트 스피커와 같은 기기의 매출 증가로 성장하고 있다.
우리는 캘린더 2021년 산업용 디램 수요 증가를 20% 전반으로추정하고 있다.
And industry NAND width demand growth to be in the high 30% range. Overall, our preliminary view is that calendar 2022 industry width demand growth will be consistent with long-term industry bit demand growth categories. In the mid to high teens for DRAM, and approximately 30% for NAND.
산업용 낸드 수용 증가는 30%대 후반으로 추정.
2022년 산업용 디램과 낸드 수요 증가율을 각각 10%대 중후반과 30%대로 추정한다.
We anticipate underlying demand in calendar 2022 to be led by increasing datacenters, server deployments, 5G mobile shipments, and continued strength in automotive and industrial markets.
Additionally, non-memory supply shortages that are constraining customer bills across various end market segments and that are pushing out some demand should ease throughout 2022 supporting demand growth during the year.
2022년 수요는 데이터센터, 서버, 5G모바일 출하와 지속적인 자동차와 산업용 시장이 이끌 것이다.
추가로 비메모리 공급 부족이 소비자들의 수요를 억제시킬 것이고 이는 2022년 전반적인 수요 증가를 완화시킬 것이다.
Given prudent industry CapEx and very lean supplier inventories, we expect healthy industry supply-demand balance and robust profitability for both DRAM and NAND in the year. In the near term, our FQ1 big shipments will decline modestly in both DRAM and NAND from very strong levels in FQ4.
Some PC customers are adjusting their memory and storage purchases due to shortages of non-memory components that are needed to complete PC bills. We expect this adjustment for our PC customers to be largely resolved in the coming months. We're also seeing constraints within our supply chain for certain IC components, which will some work limit our big shipments in the near term.
Big shipping growth will resume in the second half of the fiscal year, and we're planning to deliver record revenue with solid profitability in fiscal 2022. Our calendar year '22, big shipment growth for DRAM and NAND will be in line with the industry.
However, due to the strong shipments in fiscal year '21, and our below normal current inventory level, for fiscal year '22 our big shipment growth for DRAM and NAND will somewhat lag the long-term CAGR. In fiscal year '22, the continued ramp of 1-alpha and 176-layer NAND should provide us with good front-end cost reductions.
Our efforts to increase supply chain resilience and provide business continuity to our customers will cause headwinds to our assembly and packaging costs, consistent with the trend in the overall industry. Overall, we expect the annual cost-per-bit reductions to be competitive with the industry in fiscal year '22 and over the long term.
Turning to capital expenditures, we expect fiscal year '22 CapEx in the range of $11 billion to $12 billion. The year-on-year increase in CapEx is driven by our continued 176-layer NAND transition pilot line enablement for next-generation NAND and DRAM and continued infrastructure and prepayments to support the introduction of EUV.
Fiscal year '22 DRAM equipment CapEx for manufacturing will decline from fiscal year '21 as we benefit from the capital efficiency of our mature 1-alpha node. For fiscal year '22, our big supply growth will be achieved through node transitions alone, as we are a few years away from needing wafer start additions to keep up with the industry demand.
We also expect to increase fiscal year '22 R&D investment by approximately 15% from fiscal year '21 to deliver bold product and technology innovations designed to fuel the data economy, as well as to expand our portfolio to capitalize on opportunities such as high bandwidth memory and CXL solutions.
Our leadership portfolio, [Indiscernible] quality, supply chain agility, and deep customer relationships make us a preferred partner in many of our markets. And we are confident in our ability to continue to create long-term, sustained profitability, and returns built on that leadership. I will now turn it over to Dave.
Dave Zinsner
Thank you, Sanjay. Micron delivered excellent FQ4 results, highlighted by our second highest quarterly revenues, strong gross and operating margins, and our substantial positive free cash flow. Total FQ4 revenue was approximately $8.3 billion, up 11% quarter-over-quarter, and up 37% year-over-year. As a reminder, FQ4 last year was a 14-week quarter and impacts our year-over-year comparisons. FQ4 revenue growth was broad-based with solid demand and price increases in both DRAM and NAND.
Our robust growth in FQ4 contributed to strong performance in FY-21, with revenue of $27.7 billion which was up 29% from the prior fiscal year. That Q4 DRAM revenue was $6.1 billion, representing 74% of total revenue.
DRAM revenue increased 12% sequentially and was up 39% year-over-year.
4분기 매출 호조로 2021년 연간 매출은 전년 대비 29% 증가한 277억달러였다.
4분기 디램 매출은 전분기대비 12% 증가하고 전년 동기대비 39% 증가했고
전체 매출의 74%인 61억달러였다.
Bit shipments increased in the low-single-digit percentage sequentially, and ASP s increased in the high-single-digit percent range, quarter-to-quarter. For the fiscal year, DRAM revenue increased 38% year-over-year to $20 billion, representing 72% of total fiscal year revenue.
디램 출하량은 전분기대비 한자리수 전반 증가했고 평균 판매 가격은 한자리수 후반 증가했다.
연간으로 디램 매출은 38% 증가했고 전체 매출의 72%를 차지했다.
FQ4 NAND revenue was approximately $2 billion, an all-time high, and representing 24% of the total revenue.
NAND revenue increased 9% sequentially and was up 29% year-over-year. its shipments increased by low-single-digit percentage sequentially, while ASP s increased in the mid-single-digit percent range, quarter-over-quarter.
4분기 낸드 매출은 20억달러였고 전체 매출의 24%를 차지했다.
낸드 매출은 전분기대비 9%, 전년 동기댑비 29% 증가했다.
출하량은 전분기 대비 한자리수전반 증가, 평균 판매 가격은 한자리수 중반 증가했다.
For the fiscal year, we achieved a new Company record for NAND revenue of $7 billion, an increase of 14% year-over-year. NAND revenue represented 25% of our total fiscal year revenue. Now, turning to our FQ4 revenue trends by business unit. Revenue for the compute and networking business unit was $3.8 billion up 15% sequentially, and up 26% year-over-year.
Growth was led by the data center and graphics markets. Revenue for the mobile business unit was $1.9 billion down 5% sequentially, and up 29% year-over-year. Mobile demand remained healthy in the quarter with continued momentum from the rollout of 5G. NBU revenue for fiscal '21 exceeded $7 billion and set a new record.
Revenue for the Storage Business Unit was $1.2 billion, up 19% from the prior quarter, and up 32% year-over-year. Datacenter SSDs had strong growth in the quarter driven by enterprise and cloud strength. QFC shipments set a new record in the fiscal year in terms of the percentage of our NAND shipments.
Finally, the embedded business unit generated record revenue of $1.4 billion, which was up 23% sequentially. And more than doubled year-over-year. We continued to experience strong demand across the automotive and industrial markets.
For the fiscal year, EVU revenue easily exceeded $4 billion, setting a new revenue record. The consolidated gross margin for FQ4 was 47.9% up 500 basis points from the prior quarter. Pricing increases across DRAM and NAND, as well as strong execution in our ongoing product portfolio transformation, drove margin expansion in the quarter.
Operating expenses in FQ4 were $891 million on the lower end of the range we provided in last quarter's earnings call. F Q4 operating income was $3.1 billion, resulting in an operating margin of 37% up from 32% in F Q3, and up from 21% in the prior year.
FQ4 EBITDA was $4.7 billion, resulting in an EBITDA margin of 57.1% compared to 53.3% in the prior quarter, and 47.4% in the prior year. For the fiscal year, total EBITDA was $14 billion up from $9 billion in the prior fiscal year and represented 50.4% of revenues. Non-GAAP earnings-per-share in FQ4 were $2.42, up from $1.88 in FQ3, and up from $1.08 in the year-ago quarter.
EPS included approximately $0.02 of gains from investments in our venture arm, Micron Ventures. For the fiscal year, total EPS was $6.06, up more than 100% from the $2.83 achieved in the prior fiscal year.
Turning to cash flows and capital spending, we generated $3.9 billion in cash from operations in FQ4, representing 47% of revenue. For the fiscal year, cash from operations totaled $12.5 billion, up from $8.3 billion in the prior fiscal year. Net capital spending was $2 billion during the quarter and $9.7 billion in fiscal '21.
We generated a positive free cash flow of $1.9 billion in FQ4 and over $2.8 billion for the fiscal year. The increased cash flow was driven by strong revenue growth, increased profitability, and efficient work in capital management. As Sanjay mentioned, we expect our fiscal '22 capital spending to be between $11 billion and $12 billion.
Like fiscal '21, we expect our capital spending to be weighted more to the first half of the fiscal year, which will constrain free cash flow in FQ1 and FQ2. We do expect to generate healthy free cash flow in fiscal '22, but weighted towards the back half of the year.
We also expect to close our Lehi Fab sale within FQ1, and we will receive approximately $900 million in proceeds from the sale. We completed share repurchases of $1.1 billion or approximately 13.9 million shares in FQ4. For the fiscal year, we repurchased $1.2 billion, or approximately 15.6 million shares.
From Fiscal '17 to Fiscal '21, we generated over $20 billion of free cash flow. During this period, we used approximately $5 billion of that cash flow to retire debt, and $7 billion towards buying back stock and eliminating the dilution from convertible debt, reducing our share count by 148 million shares. We also improved our total cash and investment position by $5.5 billion.
We expect that we will continue to generate strong free cash flow in the future. And as we discussed on our capital return strategy call in early August, we are committed to returning more than 50% of cross-cycle free cash flow to shareholders, through a combination of buybacks and a quarterly dividend that we expect we can grow over time.
But first dividend payment of $0.10 per share will be paid on October 18th to shareholders of record as of October 1st. The initiation of a dividend is an important milestone that reflects the structural transformation, Micron has undergone over the last several years and it shows our confidence in the sustainability of our cash flow generation.
Our ending of Q4 inventory was $4.5 billion, and the average days of the quarter were 94 days, below our normal range of 95 to 105 days. FQ4 finished goods, dollar inventory ended at the lowest levels since the [Indiscernible] acquisition in 2013. We ended the fiscal year with $10.5 billion of total cash and investments and $13 billion of total liquidity.
Our FQ4 total debt was $6.8 billion. Now turning to our outlook. In demand across our major markets remain strong. As Sanjay mentioned, our bit shipments are expected to decline modestly in FQ1, as we normalize our inventory position and work with PC customers as they manage through their supply chain challenges.
And on the gross margin side, our outlook is similar to how we viewed FQ4. While we will benefit from our no transitions on both DRAM and NAND, we will continue to see near-term headwinds from COVID-related expenses in assembly and packaging. As a result, we expect the gross margin in FQ1 to be largely a function of the mix. With all these factors in mind, our non-GAAP guidance for FQ1 is as follows.
We expect revenue to be $7.65 billion-plus or minus $200 million, gross margins to be in the range of 47%, plus or minus 100 basis points, and our operating expenses to be approximately $915 million, plus or minus $25 million. Excluding the impact of any potential new tax legislation, we expect our non-GAAP tax rate to be approximately 10% for FQ1.
Based on a share count of approximately 1.14 billion fully diluted shares, we expect EPS to be $2.10, plus or minus $0.10. In closing, fiscal 2021 was a year of considerable growth and success for Micron. Looking at four-year average metrics reveals the sustained cross-cycle performance of our business. Over the last four years, our gross margins have exceeded 40% and our operating cash flow margins have been approximately 50%.
Despite the challenges stemming from the ongoing pandemic, we have continued to generate significant positive free cash flow while making substantial investments to grow our business. Our technology, product, and financial position provide strong momentum as we enter the new fiscal year. I'll now turn it back to Sanjay.
Harlan Sur(JP 모건 애널리스트)
Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. There are a lot of concerns on inventories in all of your end markets, especially PCs, just given the non-memory component shortages that are limiting notebook and desktop shipments in the second half of the year.
2021년 하반기에 노트북과 데스크탑 출하량을 제한하는 비메모리 반도체 부족으로
엔드 마켓 시장에 메모리 재고가 많은데-특히 PC 시장-대한 우려가 있다.
Can you guys just qualitatively describe customer and channel inventories in the PC, server, and smartphones segments of your business? And also, as you normalize your inventories through the first half of this fiscal year, do you guys anticipate a normal level of inventories on your Balance Sheet as you entered the second half of the fiscal year?
당신이 PC, 서버와 스마트폰 부문에서 고객사와 유통망등에 있는 재고 상태를 설명해 주십시오.
또 회계년도 상반기에 재고가 정상화되었듯이 회계년도 하반기에 재고 정상화를 예상하는지?
Sanjay Mehrotra(마이크론 사장)
I will have Dave comment on the second part of your question, and on the overall inventory question, I would say that by and large, inventory among our customers is in decent shape. Of course, we talked about the PC market, where due to semi-conductor component shortages, our PC customers, some of them are not able to fulfill all of their end demand, and therefore they have made some adjustments in their purchases, impacting some of our demand in the near-term into the PC market.
PC 시장에서 고객사들의 재고가 많은 것은 사실이다. 다른 반도체 부족으로 일부 PC제조사들은
주문받은 PC제품을 모두 만들지는 못하고 있다.
그래서 PC제조사들은 메모리 구매를 조정하고 있으며, 이는 가까운 시일내에 영향을 줄것으로 생각하나.
And we think this is short-lived, and over the course of the next few months, this will work itself out.
And on the smartphone side, of course, you know that new full-cycle, new full launches are coming up,
and this tends to be a seasonally strong quarter for new smartphone shipments as well.
이것은 단기적인 문제이고 몇개월이면 스스로 해결될 것이다.
스마트폰 부문에서는 새로운 상승 사이클이 시작되었고 계절적으로 신규 스마트폰 출하가 강해지는
분기가 왔다.
While some customers may because of geopolitical considerations or through the lessons learned during the pandemic, or their own supply chain considerations of supply chain shortages, maybe having a strategy of carrying more inventory than some other customers. Overall, the smartphone market continues to be driven by 5G transition smartphones over the course of calendar year '22 with 5G increasing by 50% from the 2021 levels.
And on the data center side, of course, the investment cycle is strong on the data center side, and of course, the pandemic has driven strong acceleration in digital transformation, and that certainty extending into the cloud, cloud services, video streaming, e-commerce, all of these trends, along with new architectures, new processors that are being introduced that actually enable greater AI capability into the workloads and greater usage of data attach of memory in the servers.
All of these also are creating new demand, so overall data center inventory levels are also in decent shape. So, what -- inventory in our markets today is in much better shape than it was back in the 2018-time frame.
Again, some customers may have higher levels due to their strategic considerations and they may choose to continue to do so in the longer term as well. Given the challenges faced by the supply chains during the pandemic, as well as given geopolitical considerations. This is what I would like to share with you on inventory and Dave; you can add a second part of the question.