PC 수요가 달아오르고 있고, 관련 회사의 3분기 실적이 좋을것

2020.08.30

아래 기사는 코로나 사태 장기화로 재택 교육과 재택 근무등의 증가로 전문가들의 예상을 뛰어 넘는

PC 수요가 발생했다고 하며 관련 회사들의 실적 전망치를 상향시키고 있다고 합니다.

최근 메모리 현물 가격 상승이 다 이유가 있어 보입니다.

 

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4371392-pc-demand-is-heating-up-and-widespread-q3-beats-now-appear-likely?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=intc-pc-demand-is-heating-up-and-widespread-q3-beats-now-appear-likely&utm_campaign=rta-stock-article&utm_content=link-2

PC Demand Is Heating Up And Widespread Q3 Beats Now Appear Likely.

PC 수요가 달아오르고 있고, 3분기 실적이 좋을것이라는 의견이 확산되고 있다.

 

최근 몇주 사이에 PC 수요가,주로 크롬북과 노트북 수요가, 강하게 증가하고 있다.

이런 수요는 인텔이나 AMD와 시장 조사기관이 최근까지 언급했던 수요보다도 더 강하게 증가하고 있다고 한다.

우리는  PC 공급망에 있는 많은 회사들이 3분기에 이익이 좋을 것으로 본다.

 

Summary

PC demand, driven mainly by Chromebooks and laptops, has picked up strongly in recent weeks.

Demand commentary from PC supply chain suggests the demand uptick is much stronger than what commentary from Intel, AMD, and market research sources suggested until recently.

We see many companies in the PC supply chain benefiting strongly in Q3.

This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Beyond The Hype. Get started today »

 

Within the last two weeks, earnings reports from AsusTek (2357:TT), Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY), Nvidia (NVDA), Dell (DELL), and HP (HPQ) coupled with several news reports from Taiwan are indicating that, contrary to widespread expectations, Q3 is shaping up to be a red hot quarter for PCs.

지난 2주간 대만 마더보드및 컴퓨터 제조사인 아수스텍과 레노바, 엔비디아, 델과 HP등에 관한 대만의 뉴스와

실적 리포트는 3분기에 PC관련 실적이 좋을 것으로 형성되고 있다.

 

Probably most telling commentary comes from the Dell earnings call. Jeff Clarke, the COO, commented:

“If you think about what's just happened is even IDC within the calendar quarter, Q3 has changed the forecast outlook for the calendar quarter we're in by 20 points. I've been at this a while. I've never seen that much change in a 6-week period with 7 weeks to go, which, to me, suggests that there is unanticipated demand driven from learn from home, a one-to-one education initiative.”

아마 많은 말이 델컴퓨터의 실적 발표에서 나왔다.

시장 조사 기관인 IDC조차도 예상못한, 3분기 실적 전망이 20포인트 상향되었다.

회사는  향후 7주간을 포함 지난 6주간의 이뤄진 많은 변화를 본적이 없다.

재택 교육에서 1대1 교육은  예상치 못한 컴퓨터 수요를 증가시켰다.

 

Not surprisingly, there is component shortage including CPUs.

The COO had this to say:

“If you look at the supply constraints there, there's supply constraints with LCD. Typically on glass itself and the drivers themselves and there aren't enough low core count CPUs for the industry to respond to this demand profile.”

Similarly, on HP earnings call, CEO Enrique Lores commented:

델컴퓨터는 놀랍지도 않게 CPU를 포함한 컴퓨터 부품 공급 부족이 일어나고 있다고 언급했다.

비슷한 말은 HP CEO도 언급했다.

 

“As we look at the next quarter, really, the key limitation is not on the demand side. On the demand side is actually on the supply chain side, because given the demand that we see in some specific segments, we really need to find -- need continue to find more components, processors and panels to respond to the demand that we see.”

3분기 실적을 예상할때 주요 변수는 수요가 아닌 공급 측면에 있다.

수요를 맞출 CPU나 패널등과 같은 부품을 구해야할 필요가 있다고 언급했다.

 

Last week, Nvidia guided gaming revenues to be up 25% for the October quarter on top of an already massive July quarter indicating a strong consumer quarter.

지난주 엔비디아는 10월말 분기에서 게이밍부문 매출(컴퓨터부문이 포함된)을 25% 상향 시켰다.

Earlier, AsusTek forecasted 30% growth in PCs for Q3 from an already strong Q2. In some sub segments, AsusTek is seeing even stronger growth. For example, the company is seeing over 40% growth in gaming laptops and even stronger growth in Chromebooks for the education segment.

그보다 먼저 아수스텍은 2분기 강한 PC 수요에 더해, 3분기에도 PC 부문 매출이 30% 증가할 것으로 예상했다.

특히 게이밍 노트북에서는 40% 증가를 심지어 교육용 크롬북은 더 큰 증가를 예상했다.

 

The demand is so high AsusTek is reporting component shortages from various vendors including Intel (INTC) and, for the first time, also from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). In the case of AMD, AsusTek is seeing shortages of mid-range to high-end product. In the case of Intel, AsusTek is seeing shortages at the low-end. Lenovo is reporting strength on similar lines.

 아수스텍은 인텔과 AMD를 포함한 모든 종류의 부품 부족을 보고하고 있다.

특히 AMD CPU부족은 처음 겪는 일이라 했다.

중국 컴퓨터업체 레노바도 3분기 강한 실적을 예상했다.

 

All this is contrary to prior expectations, including guidance from Intel, that H2 PC demand is slowing down once COVID demand is satisfied. Note that it has been nearly a month since Intel gave us the dour guidance and the good news on demand front is only starting to trickle in during the last week or so. To that extent, Intel’s just announced stock buyback is a positive sign of what Intel may be seeing in the environment.

인텔과 HP는 2분기 실적 발표에서 3분기의 저조한 PC 수요를 예상했으나, 실상은 반대로 가고 있다.

 

On the flip side, datacenter demand does appear to be weaker during H2. Micron (MU), Western Digital (WDC) and other companies have recently indicated signs of cloud digestion and enterprise and SMB weakness driving demand slowdown. Micron stock price took a 10%+ beating during the last week due to concerns about demand slowdown. Nvidia’s datacenter growth is also less than stellar.

다른 한편으로 데이터센터 수요는 하반기 동안 더 약해진것으로 나타났다.

최근 마이크론, 웨스턴디지탈과 기타 회사들은 메모리 수요를 약화시켰던 클라우드 재고 처리와

기업용및 SMB 수요등이 약해지는 상황을 지적했다.

 

마이크론 주식은 지난주 수요 하락에 대한 걱정 완화로 10%이상 상승했다.

 

All things considered, datacenter and server demand appear to be slowing down as expected but demand on the PC front is showing signs of being significantly above prior expectations. Consequently, it now appears that PC food chain companies will post a strong Q3.

모든 것을 고려해 볼때, 데이터센터와 서버 수요는 예상대로 약해지고 있으나 PC부문 수요는 이전 예상 이상으로

상당한 것으로 나타났다.

결과적으로 pC관련 회사들의 3분기 실적은 강할 것으로 예상된다.

 

In the case of AMD, the prognosis appears to the best. The company is now capacity limited and in such a situation it is common for businesses to shift product mix up to maximize revenues. We suspect that AMD will be doing the same. AMD’s wafer starts at TSMC (TSM) may limited but AMD’s other foundry, Global Foundries, likely has capacity to deliver additional product which should help AMD satisfy the massive Chromebook wave that seems to be occurring. While a large growth in Chromebook CPUs could depress margins somewhat, they should smartly add to EPS.AMD’s EPYC product line also seems to be doing well with several high profile deployments from key customers in the recent weeks. Increased server sales should also help the company’s ASPs. Nvidia’s A100 appears to be driving considerable amount of new business for EPYC. As A100 ramps, it should directly benefit EPYC. Given the PC and server strength and rising ASPs, AMD should solidly beat on both top and bottom lines.

In the case of Intel, the company likely has incremental capacity in part due to AMD taking share. This capacity will come in handy in driving incremental production to fulfil the strong demand. Consequently, Intel too will solidly beat Q3 guidance.

 

Micron investors may also be in for a pleasant surprise. Typically, memory demand lags CPU demand slightly due to some customers adding memory later in the PC purchase process and also because the memory stick supply chain is shorter. Micron, which has been beaten down due to datacenter demand concerns, and more recently due to Huawei concerns, should see demand increasing in the coming weeks from PCs. Considering the massive demand wave, this demand is likely to offset much of the weakness Micron is seeing on the datacenter front.

 

TSMC should also see a robust uptick in Q3 and Q4 as a result of the strong PC demand.

As such, AMD, Intel, TSMC, and Micron are well poised for a run up as the news of strong demand spreads and as the companies beat guidance. We expect that there will be widespread upgrades in the segment as the quarter comes to an end. A run up over the next several weeks going into Q3 earnings is likely.

AMD, TSMC와 마이크론같은 회사들은 PC 수요가 강하다는 소식이 퍼질수록, 회사가 실적 예상치를

올릴수록, 회사의 주가는 상승할 것이다. 

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2020.09.01

https://www.hanaw.com/download/research/FileServer/WEB/info/daily/2020/08/30/Weekly_0831.pdf

하나금융투자의 PC와 디램관련 리포트.