AI 배포 및 높은 재고 수준에서의 공급망 회복이 웨이퍼 파운드리 시장 가치를 2025년까지 연간 20% 성장으로 이끌 것(2024.09.19)

2024.09.19

DRAMeXchange - 【Market View】AI Deployment and Supply Chain Recovery from High Inventory Levels to Drive a 20% Annual Growth in Wafer Foundry Market Value by 2025, Says TrendForce

AI Deployment and Supply Chain Recovery from High Inventory Levels to Drive a 20% Annual Growth in Wafer Foundry Market Value by 2025, Says TrendForce

 

TrendForce에 따르면 AI 배포 및 높은 재고 수준에서의 공급망 회복이 웨이퍼 파운드리 시장 가치를 2025년까지 연간 20% 성장으로 이끌 것이라고 한다.

 

TrendForce posits that the wafer foundry market is expected to see a recovery in 2025, with an estimated annual growth of 20%—up from 16% in 2024. This positive outlook comes despite the weak end-market demand for consumer products, which has led component manufacturers to adopt a conservative stocking strategy and made the average capacity utilization rate of wafer foundries fall below 80% in 2024.

 

TrendForce는 웨이퍼 파운드리 시장이 2025년에 회복될 것으로 예상하며, 2024년 16%에서 2025년에는 연간 20%의 성장을 기록할 것으로 추정하고 있다. 이러한 긍정적인 전망은 소비자 제품에 대한 최종 시장 수요가 약세를 보임에도 불구하고 나타난다. 소비자 수요의 감소로 인해 부품 제조업체들은 보수적인 재고 전략을 채택했으며, 그로 인해 2024년 웨이퍼 파운드리의 평균 가동률이 80% 이하로 떨어졌다. 

 

Only advanced processes, such as 5/4/3nm nodes used for HPC products and flagship smartphones, have managed to maintain full capacity, and this situation is expected to persist into 2025. However, the visibility in the consumer end market remains low for 2025. 

 

다만, HPC 제품과 플래그십 스마트폰에 사용되는 5/4/3nm 노드와 같은 첨단 공정만이 가동률 100%를 유지하고 있으며, 이러한 상황은 2025년에도 계속될 것으로 보인다. 그러나 2025년 소비자 최종 시장에 대한 전망은 여전히 불투명하다.

 

In contrast, the automotive and industrial control supply chains are beginning to recover from inventory corrections starting in the second half of 2024, with gradual restocking expected to resume in 2025. Coupled with the increase in wafer consumption per unit driven by edge AI and the continued expansion of cloud AI infrastructure, these factors are projected to drive a 20% annual growth in the wafer foundry market value in 2025.

 

반면, 자동차 및 산업 제어 공급망은 2024년 하반기부터 재고 조정에서 회복되기 시작했으며, 2025년에는 점진적인 재고 보충이 재개될 것으로 예상된다. 엣지 AI에 의해 장치당 웨이퍼 소비가 증가하고 클라우드 AI 인프라의 지속적인 확장과 맞물려, 이러한 요인들이 2025년 웨이퍼 파운드리 시장 가치의 연간 20% 성장을 이끌 것으로 전망된다.

 

TrendForce indicates that advanced processes and packaging will propel TSMC’s revenue growth rate beyond the industry average in 2025. Although the growth momentum of non-TSMC foundries is still restrained by consumer end-demand, it is expected that revenue growth in 2025 will reach nearly 12%, outperforming the previous year. This is due to factors such as healthy component inventory among IDM and fabless clients in various sectors, demand for power driven by Cloud/Edge AI, and a lower base in 2024.

TrendForce는 첨단 공정과 패키징 기술이 2025년 TSMC의 매출 성장률을 업계 평균 이상으로 끌어올릴 것이라고 지적했다. 비록 TSMC 이외의 파운드리들은 여전히 소비자 수요에 억눌려 있지만, 2025년에는 매출 성장률이 12%에 가까울 것으로 예상되며, 이는 전년도에 비해 나아진 성과이다. 이는 여러 부문에서 IDM 및 팹리스 고객들의 건강한 부품 재고, 클라우드/엣지 AI에 따른 전력 수요, 그리고 2024년의 낮은 성장 기반 등의 요인 덕분이다.

 

Advanced processes and packaging to propel TSMC’s revenue growth beyond industry average in 2025

첨단 공정과 패키징 기술이 2025년 TSMC의 매출 성장률을 업계 평균 이상으로 끌어올릴 것

 

TrendForce highlights that over the past two years, the 3nm process capacity has entered a scaling-up phase, and by 2025, it is expected to become mainstream for flagship PC CPUs and mobile APs, as mid-range and high-end smartphone chips, AI GPUs, and ASICs remain on the 5/4nm nodes, utilization rates for these processes are likely to stay high. Although the demand for 7/6nm processes has been weak for the past two years, new demand is anticipated to emerge between the second half of 2025 and 2026, driven by the transition plans for RF/WiFi processes in smartphones. TrendForce forecasts that in 2025, 7/6nm, 5/4nm, and 3nm processes will contribute 45% of global revenue for wafer foundries.

 

TrendForce는 지난 2년 동안 3nm 공정 용량이 확장 단계에 진입했으며, 2025년에는 플래그십 PC CPU 및 모바일 AP의 주류가 될 것으로 예상된다고 강조했다. 중급 및 고급 스마트폰 칩, AI GPU, ASIC은 여전히 5/4nm 노드에서 생산되며, 이러한 공정의 가동률은 계속해서 높게 유지될 것으로 보인다. 비록 7/6nm 공정에 대한 수요는 지난 2년간 약세를 보였지만, 스마트폰의 RF/WiFi 공정 전환 계획에 따라 2025년 하반기부터 2026년 사이에 새로운 수요가 나타날 것으로 예상된다. TrendForce는 2025년에 7/6nm, 5/4nm, 3nm 공정이 전 세계 웨이퍼 파운드리 매출의 45%를 차지할 것이라고 예측했다.

 

 

Furthermore, driven by strong demand for AI chips, the supply of 2.5D advanced packaging was significantly constrained in 2023 and 2024. Major manufacturers offering integrated front-end manufacturing and back-end packaging solutions, such as TSMC, Samsung, and Intel, are actively expanding their capacities. TrendForce predicts that wafer foundries’ revenues from 2.5D packaging solutions will grow by more than 120% in 2025. While its share of total wafer foundry revenue will remain below 5%, its importance continues to rise.

 

또한, AI 칩에 대한 강한 수요로 인해 2023년과 2024년에는 2.5D 첨단 패키징 공급이 크게 제한되었다. TSMC, 삼성, 인텔과 같은 통합된 전방 제조 및 후방 패키징 솔루션을 제공하는 주요 제조업체들은 적극적으로 용량을 확장하고 있다. TrendForce는 2025년에 웨이퍼 파운드리의 2.5D 패키징 솔루션 관련 매출이 120% 이상 성장할 것으로 예상하고 있다. 총 웨이퍼 파운드리 매출에서 2.5D 패키징이 차지하는 비중은 5% 미만으로 남아 있을 것이지만, 그 중요성은 계속해서 상승하고 있다.

 

Mature process utilization rates expected to increase by 10 percentage points, but capacity expansion may place pressure on prices

 

TrendForce states that due to low visibility in consumer product demand, supply chain participants are likely to maintain a conservative approach to inventory building, and wafer foundry orders in 2025 are expected to remain in an ad-hoc mode similar to 2024. However, with inventories of components for automotive, industrial control, and general-purpose servers being gradually corrected to healthy levels in 2024, restocking is anticipated to resume in 2025, leading to a 10 percentage point increase in utilization rates for mature processes and breaking the 70% mark.

Following two consecutive years of delayed capacity expansion plans, wafer foundries are also expected to begin introducing previously postponed new capacities in 2025—especially for 28nm, 40nm, and 55nm modes. The combination of low demand visibility and the influx of new capacity could exert additional downward pressure on prices for mature processes.

 

성숙 공정 가동률이 10%포인트 증가할 것으로 예상되지만, 용량 확장이 가격에 압박을 가할 수 있음

TrendForce는 소비자 제품 수요의 낮은 가시성으로 인해 공급망 참가자들이 재고 축적에 대해 보수적인 접근 방식을 유지할 가능성이 높으며, 2025년 웨이퍼 파운드리 주문은 2024년과 유사하게 임시적(ad-hoc) 모드로 유지될 것으로 예상된다고 밝혔다. 그러나 2024년에 자동차, 산업 제어, 범용 서버용 부품의 재고가 점진적으로 건강한 수준으로 조정됨에 따라, 2025년에는 재고 보충이 재개될 것으로 예상되며, 이로 인해 성숙 공정의 가동률이 10%포인트 증가하여 70%를 넘길 것으로 전망된다.

2년 연속으로 지연된 용량 확장 계획 후, 웨이퍼 파운드리들은 2025년에 28nm, 40nm, 55nm 공정에 대해 이전에 연기된 새로운 용량을 도입할 것으로 예상된다. 낮은 수요 가시성과 새로운 용량의 유입이 결합되어 성숙 공정의 가격에 추가적인 하락 압력을 가할 수 있다.

 

 

Despite the 20% growth forecast for wafer foundry revenues in 2025, supported by ongoing AI developments and the bottoming out of component inventories for applications, foundries will still face several challenges. These include uncertainties over end-market demand due to macroeconomic factors, potential impacts of high costs on AI deployment strength, and increased capital expenditures due to capacity expansion plans.

 

AI 개발의 지속 및 애플리케이션용 부품 재고의 바닥세로 인해 2025년 웨이퍼 파운드리 매출이 20% 성장할 것으로 예상됨에도 불구하고, 파운드리들은 여전히 여러 도전에 직면할 것이다. 이러한 도전 과제에는 거시경제적 요인으로 인한 최종 시장 수요의 불확실성, 높은 비용이 AI 배포 강도에 미치는 잠재적 영향, 그리고 용량 확장 계획으로 인한 자본 지출 증가 등이 포함된다.