마이크론 주가는 매수하기 좋은 가격-도이치뱅크(2021.09.02)

2021.09.02

The Risk-Reward Ratio of Micron Stock Looks Favorable, Says Analyst (yahoo.com)

 

Computer memory stocks are known to be heavily cyclical, subject to the whims of supply and demand dynamics. Recent times have seen these stocks come under pressure as investors have pondered whether we are at the peak of such a cycle. Shares of memory giant Micron (MU) have borne the brunt of this perceived market development and over the past 6 months have shed 22% of their value.

 

While memory supply chain checks conducted by Deutsche Bank’s Sidney Ho suggest that in the near-term demand remains strong with suppliers finding it hard to “keep up,” the analyst concedes that given the memory market’s historically cyclical nature, investors are “taking a more bearish view,” concerned with how the strong DRAM capex this year will affect industry supply next year.

도이치뱅크 애널리스트 시드니호가 조사한 메모리 공급망 분석에 따르면, 가까운 시일내 수요는 공급이 몼따라갈

정도로 강하지만, 메모리 시장의 역사적인 시클리컬 시장의 속성상, 올해 디램 설비투자가 많이 증가한만큼

내년에 공급 과잉에 대한 우려가 있다는 사실을 인정했다.

 

Ho also notes that in the server market there is general agreement that demand currently remains robust.

However, opinions diverge when the talk turns to the outlook, specifically regrading “how much inventory is in the supply chain and hence their outlook for memory pricing.”

시드니호는 서버 시장의 현재 수요는 강하다는게 일반적인 견해로 분석했다.

하지만 미래 전망에 대해서는 ,특히 공급망에 얼마나 많은 재고가 있는지, 그로인한 메모리 가격 전망에는

견해가 갈리고 있다.

 

On the demand side, delays in Q3 price negotiations suggest some large cloud customers have already built up enough inventory, indicating pricing rather than availability is more of an issue. While Q3 price negotiations are ongoing, sellers on the other hand have pointed out that memory components’ prices are still up by 5-10% quarter-over-quarter, implying inventory levels at those customers are “unlikely to be too high.”

수요 측면에서, 3분기 가격 협상이 지연된 것은 대형 클라우드 업체가 이미 충분한 재고를 가지고 있고,

이는 가격협상이 쉽지않다는 것이다.

3분기 가격 협상은 아직 진행중이며 공급자들은 재고 수준이 충분하지 않기때문에

메모리 가격이 2분기대비 5-10% 상승한다고 지적한다.

 

“The divergence in view has led to a wide range of ASP expectations for 4Q,” says Ho, “With the more bullish view suggesting server DRAM prices could be up ~5% q/q, while the more bearish view suggesting prices could be down 5-10% q/q.”

공급자와 수요자의 견해 차이는 4분기 협상 가격 폭이 클것이 예상된다.

낙관적이 견해는 4분기 서버 디램 가격을  3분기대비 5% 상승을 예상하지만,

하락을 예상하는 쪽은 5-10% 하락을 예상한다.

 

While Ho also notes that there seems to be widespread agreementthat the supply-demand balance would improve in the second half of next year - making for a favorable CY22 set up - his view is that “increasing uncertainty around DRAM prices in the near term will likely continue to pressure valuation multiples.”

하지만 내년도 후반기에는 디램의 수급이 균형을 이룰 것이라는 광범위한 합의가 있다고 시드니호는 언급했다.

 

For Micron specifically, this means a “lowering of DRAM pricing assumptions” and with it a price target reduction for the stock. The figure drops from $110 to $95, yet still suggests upside of ~29%. Despite the target slash, given the recent underperformance in share price, the risk/reward “remains favorable” and Ho’s Buy rating stays as is. (To watch Ho’s track record, click here)

마이크론에 관해서는 디램 가격 하락을 가정하고, 목표 주가를 하향했지만, 목표가를 110달러에서

95달러로 낮췄음에도 현재가는 목표가까지 29% 상승 여력이 있다.

호 애널리스트는 마이크론을 매수 등급으로 하였다.

 

Most on the Street agree MU stock remains a Buy. 16 out of 22 recent reviews are positive, with the other 6 remaining on the fence with a Hold rating - all coalescing to a Moderate Buy consensus rating. T

he average price target remains a bullish one; at $111.69, the figure implies share appreciation of ~52% in the year ahead. (See Micron stock analysis on TipRanks)

대부분 애널리스트들의 마이크론에 대한 등급은 '매수'이다.

22명중 16명이 매수이고 6명은 보유 등급이다. 평균 목표가는 111.69달러이다.

 

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