반도체 부족 위기는 2022년 하반기에 좋아질 것(2021.12.18)

22021.12.18

Chip crunch likely to improve in 2H22 as new capacities start production, says Central Bank (digitimes.com)

 

At a press conference on December 16, Taiwan's Central Bank governor Yang Chin-long said the chip crunch, which was caused by the imbalance in supply and demand due to severe epidemic in the first half of 2020 and the stronger-than-expected economic recovery in the second half, is expected to improve significantly in the second half of 2022.

대만 중앙은행장은 12월16일 언론과의 대화에서  2020년 상반기 발생한 코로나 사태로 심각한 수요와 공급 불균형이

발생했고  2020년 하반기에 예상보다 강한 경제 회복으로 발생한 반도체 위기가 2022년 하반기에는

상당 부분 해소될 것으로 예상했다.

 

The central bank also pointed out that emerging technology applications have boosted demand for products such as 5G communications, high-performance computing and automotive electronics. The digital transformation business opportunities are in hot demand, high-end semiconductor production capacity is coming on stream, while manufacturers are upgrading their production capacity allocation in Taiwan.

중앙은행은 떠오르는 기술 적용처가 5G통신, 고성능 컴퓨팅과 전기차등과 같은 상품의 수요를 증가시켰다고 지적했다.

 

In his briefing, Yang pointed out that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that the global economy will grow at a high rate of 4.9% in 2022, and it is expected that Taiwan's export momentum will continue, driving robust investment in advanced semiconductor equipment. In addition, the expansion of the technology budget and continued investment in Taiwan by major international manufacturers are likely to contribute to domestic investments as well. The economic growth rate for this year and next year is estimated to be 6.03% and 4.03%, respectively.

The expansion of the technology budget refers to the Executive Yuan's announcement that it will extend the tax-deductible credits for investments in smart machinery and 5G systems until the end of 2024. Investments in cybersecurity products are also included in the tax credit program. Taiwan has allocated NT$106.3 billion in the 2022 technology development budget, an annual increase of 15%. Incentives for investments in Taiwan originally will expire at the end of this year, but the Central Bank said the Executive Yuan intends to extend another three years, accompanied by an energy-saving carbon reduction program as requirements.

The Central Bank cited SEMI's September report, which estimated that there are a total of 38 new fab projects on construction worldwide in 2021 and 2022. But it stressed that capacity expansion or mass production of new fabs will still take 1-2 years, and some of the new capacity is expected to start in the second half of 2022.

In addition, the global economy has rebounded, major countries have been promoting infrastructure construction and the peak procurement season in Europe and the USare driving the growth of exports. The emerging technology applications and digital transformation are in hot demand, while export momentum of information, communication and audio-visual products, electronic components and communication products remain strong. The real export growth rate is estimated to be 10.52% in the fourth quarter and 16.8% for whole-year 2021.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Central Bank (ECB), supply chain bottlenecks are likely to ease in the first quarter of 2022, with transportation, delivery delays and semiconductor shortages expected to improve in the second half of 2022.

Although the US Federal Reserve announced an accelerated reduction in bond purchases due to rising inflation and is expected to raise interest rates three times in 2022, Yang believes that compared to the US, Taiwan prices are relatively stable, while inflation is a short-term phenomenon and is expected to slow down next year.