마이크론 실적 전망치 하향으로 시간외 2%대 하락(2022.07.01)

2022.07.01

마이크론 3분기(3월~6월2일) 실적은 시장 컨센서스를 약간 상회했으나,

다음 분기(6월~8월) 전망치가 시장 컨센서스를 대폭 하회하면서 시간외에서 2%대 하락하고 있다.

 

3분기 매출 86.4억달러,순이익은 26.3억달러, 주당순이익은 2.34달러였다.

다음 분기 예상 매출 중간치는 72억달러, 주당 순이익은 1.63달러로 전망했다.

회사의 다음 분기 매출 전망치가 시장의 전망치보다 15억달러 하회.

 

마이크론 사장은 어닝콜에서 6월들어 시장에서 메모리 수요가 약해지고 있다고 언급했다.

특히 PC와 스마트폰 수요가 감소하고 있다고 하였다.

 

그럼에도 불구하고 UBS애널 티모시 아큐리는 PC와 스마트폰 수요가 약하지만,

2023년에는 공급 부족으로 가격 강세를 예상했고, 신규 서버 CPU 발매로 수요가 반등할 것으로 예상하며

마이크론 목표가 110달러와 매수 등급을 유지했다.

 

에버코스의 애널 뮤즈는 소비자 수요 약세를 데이터센터 수요 강세가 상쇄할 것으로 예상하면서

마이크론의 목표가 90달러와 아웃포펌 등급을 유지했다.

 

 

Micron's weak forecast adds to Wall Street concerns that chip demand is drying up - MarketWatch

Quarterly sales forecast is more than $1.5 billion below Street expectations

회사의 다음 분기 매출 전망치가 시장의 전망치보다 15억달러 하회.

 

Micron Technology Inc. added to Wall Street fears late Thursday that customers may have loaded up on chips during the shortage after the memory-chip maker forecast a poor outlook following earnings that topped expectations.

Micron  MU, -1.32%  expects adjusted fourth-quarter net income of $1.43 to $1.83 a share on revenue of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion. Analysts had forecast $2.60 a share on revenue of $9.15 billion.

 

마이크론은 4분기 실적 전망에서 주당순이익 1.43달러~1.83달러,매출 68억~76억달러를 예상했다.

시장의 4분기 전망치는 주당순이익 2.60달러, 91.5억달러이다.

“Recently, the industry demand environment has weakened, and we are taking action to moderate our supply growth in fiscal 2023,” said Sanjay Mehrotra, Micron’s chief executive, in a statement. “We are confident about the long-term secular demand for memory and storage and are well positioned to deliver strong cross-cycle financial performance.”

마이크론 사장은 최근 시장에서 메모리 수요가 약해지고있고, 이에따라 회사도 2023년 회계의 공급 증가를 

조정하고 있다고 말했다.

 

 

Micron shares, which had fallen as much as 5% after hours, were last down 1%, following a 1.3% decline in the regular session to close at $55.28.

 

For the fiscal third quarter, the Boise, Idaho-based chip maker reported net income of $2.63 billion, or $2.34 a share, compared with $1.74 billion, or $1.52 a share, in the year-ago period. Adjusted earnings, which exclude stock-based compensation expenses and other items, were $2.59 a share, compared with $1.88 a share in the year-ago period.

 

Revenue rose to $8.64 billion from $7.42 billion in the year-ago quarter.

3분기 매출은 86.4억달러이고 전년 동기 매출은 74.2억달러.

 

Analysts surveyed by FactSet had forecast adjusted earnings of $2.43 a share on revenue of $8.64 billion, based on Micron’s forecast of $2.36 to $2.56 a share on revenue of $8.5 billion to $8.9 billion.

Read: Pessimism on chip stocks is hitting a new high, and the money seems to be flowing toward software

 

Micron specializes in DRAM and NAND memory chips. DRAM, or dynamic random access memory, is the type of memory commonly used in PCs and servers, while NAND chips are the flash memory chips used in smaller devices like smartphones and USB drives. Like most semiconductors, memory chips have been in great demand during the COVID-19 pandemic, and prices have shot higher, but analysts are beginning to seeing signs that demand is easing and customer inventories are building.

 

Over the past 12 months, Micron shares have dropped 35%, while the PHLX Semiconductor Index  SOX, -1.07% has shed 12%, the S&P 500 index  SPX, -0.88% has fallen 12%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index  COMP, -1.33%  dropped 24%.

지난 12개월동안 ㅁ마이크론 주가는 35% 하락했고, 반면에  필라델피아 반도체지수 12%하락,

 S&P 500 지수 12%하락, 나스닥 24%하락하였다.

 

The analyst at Citi for instance, who lowered his price target by $15 to $85 this week,

was still more than a billion dollars above the company's midpoint, despite already calling for a guidance miss.

씨티는 마이크론 목표가를  100달러에서 85달러로 하향.

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Micron earnings to provide more clues as to whether chip boom has passed - MarketWatch

 

Micron Technology Inc.’s earnings on Thursday will provide a much-anticipated clue into a problem that has worried Wall Street all year about the chip industry: Whether customers have been hoarding chips during the global shortage.

 

 

Micron’s MU, -1.32% May-ending quarter will give analysts an extra month of data to pick through, given the last major earnings report in the sector was Nvidia Corp. NVDA, -2.46%, which had an April-ending quarter. Those earnings revealed the effects of COVID shutdowns in China and lost business because of the war in Ukraine that did not factor for the majority of chip makers that had March-ending quarters.

 

Last quarter, Micron Chief Executive Sanjay Mehrotra said that sales to data-center customers had eclipsed those to the mobile market, and forecast that data-center sales would outpace the broader memory and storage market over the next decade. Revisions to the CEO’s forecast on Thursday will be closely watched for signs that demand is starting to ease.

 

The Boise, Idaho-based chip maker specializes in DRAM and NAND memory chips. DRAM, or dynamic random access memory, is the type of memory commonly used in PCs and servers, while NAND chips are the flash memory chips used in smaller devices like smartphones and USB drives. 

 

Analysts are just starting to see signs that customers may have overbought chips over the past year given short supplies, which would have in turn contributed to record sales for the industry. The thing is, Wall Street has seen this movie before, when the chip industry rode to record sales in 2018 only to find out it was because customers were double- and triple-buying chips to lock in prices before they could shoot any higher. As a result, chip makers were stuck with huge inventories that took months to unload.

 

For months now, analysts have been fretting over the chip sector following record-high stock prices just before 2022, record sales and sold-out supply until 2023.

Read: Pessimism on chip stocks is hitting a new high, and the money seems to be flowing toward software

 

 

Headlining that pessimism going into Micron’s earnings is Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore, who has an equal-weight rating and recently slashed his price target to $56 from $83.

Moore said he is “incrementally cautious around the end-market outlook,” and that “memory markets remain weak from a volume standpoint.”

 

While Moore appreciates Micron’s cost-structure improvements and the product roadmap, “weakness in PC and smartphone, which was concentrated in China, is growing and spreading both geographically and into server and other markets with order reductions/push-outs popping up recently.”

 

What analysts are saying

애널리스트들은 뭐라고 하는가?

 

Evercore ISI analyst C.J. Muse, who has an outperform rating and a $90 price target, said he expects consumer weakness and data-center strength to balance each other out.

 

에버코스의 애널 뮤즈는 소비자 수요 약세를 데이터센터 수요 강세가 상쇄할 것으로 예상하면서

마이크론의 목표가 90달러와 아웃포펌 등급을 유지했다.

 

“Bigger picture, we believe the structural transformation now underway at Micron, along with an increasingly rational memory-industry backdrop, positions the company well to navigate the current slowdown,” Muse said.

 

“For investors with duration, today’s level is very interesting, particularly considering the significant strides Micron has made in recent years,” Muse said. That said, “given recession potential,” Muse said he sees $50 as “the close-your-eyes level” on the stock.

 

 

Another analyst who has a $50-a-share downside scenario price on the stock is BMO Capital analyst Ambrish Srivastava, who has an outperform rating and an $85 price target. Srivastava he expects lower capital spending at Micron as he expects memory-chip prices to go lower than his previous expectations.

 

 

“As major end markets, from PCs to handsets, which collectively make up a meaningful portion of the memory industry’s revenues, as well as that of Micron’s, decelerate more than what we were earlier thinking, we are lowering our estimates for Micron,” Srivastava said.

Read: Why semiconductor stocks are ‘almost uninvestable’ despite record earnings amid a global shortage

 

UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri, who has a buy rating and a $115 price target, said he thinks that “investors continue to overlook several key factors” on the stock.

While PC and smartphone weakness is a concern, Arcuri expects strong prices going into 2023 as supply drops off again. Also, “demand should be cushioned” by new server platforms upgrading processors next year.

 

그럼에도 불구하고 UBS애널 티모시 아큐리는 PC와 스마트폰 수요가 약하지만,

2023년에는 공급 부족으로 가격 강세를 예상했고, 신규 서버 CPU 발매로 수요가 반등할 것으로 예상하며

마이크론 목표가 110달러와 매수 등급을 유지했다.

 

“We believe these company-specific factors have to some degree been lost in the investment debate on the stock as concerns around consumer demand have taken hold,” Arcuri said.

 

Of the 36 analysts who cover Micron, 32 have buy or overweight ratings, three have hold ratings and one has a sell rating, with an average price target of $96.74, or 67% higher than Tuesday’s close, according to FactSet data.