AI 주식을 구매하기 전에 모든 투자자가 던져야 할 세 가지 질문(2023.06.18)

2023.06.18

아래 기사를 읽어보면 엔비디아는 너무 비싸므로 피해야 할 주식이라고 합니다.

 

3 Questions Every Investor Should Ask Before Buying AI Stocks | The Motley Fool

 

3 Questions Every Investor Should Ask Before Buying AI Stocks | The Motley Fool

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• The stock's valuation must be considered when dealing with AI stocks.
  The Gartner Hype Cycle is an excellent way to visualize investing in a trendy topic.
• AI can be just a buzzword for some businesses.
   

AI 주식을 구매하기 전에 모든 투자자가 던져야 할 세 가지 질문:

1. 인공지능 기술이 이 회사의 비즈니스에 실질적인 영향을 미치고 있는가요? 
2. 회사는 AI를 핵심으로 한 전략적 방향성과 경쟁력을 가지고 있나요? 
3. 회사의 AI 기술은 현재 실용적이며 장기적인 가치를 제공하고 있나요?

 

1. Is the valuation right?

Valuation is a key subject, as even the best company bought at the wrong price can be a disaster.

When assessing valuation, I always ask: "What kind of growth must this company sustain for this valuation to make sense?" Applying this to popular AI stock Nvidia (NVDA 0.09%) is a worthy exercise, as it is a chief culprit in overpaying for a company that will significantly benefit from AI rollout. At 40 times sales, Nvidia trades higher than most stocks' price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Should Nvidia regain its peak profitability of a 38% profit margin, this would imply Nvidia trades at 105 times earnings. However, Nvidia is nowhere near its peak profitability, although this should improve in the coming quarters thanks to its impressive growth forecast.

 

1. 적정 가치인가요?
가치 평가는 매우 중요한 주제입니다. 가장 우수한 회사라도 잘못된 가격에 매입된다면 큰 재앙이 될 수 있습니다. 가치 평가를 평가할 때, 항상 다음과 같은 질문을 던집니다: "이 가격 평가가 타당하려면 이 회사는 어떤 종류의 성장을 유지해야 할까요?" 이를 인기 있는 AI 주식인 Nvidia (NVDA 0.09%)에 적용해보는 것은 가치 평가를 위한 유익한 시도입니다. Nvidia는 AI의 성장에 큰 이점을 얻을 것으로 예상되는 회사 중에서도 가장 많은 가격을 지불하고 있습니다.

Nvidia는 매출 대비 40배의 가격으로 거래되고 있으며, 대부분의 주식의 주가 수익비율(P/E)에 비해 높은 가격입니다. 

만약 Nvidia가 이전의 최고 수준인 38%의 이윤 마진을 회복한다면, 이는 Nvidia가 105배의 주가 수익비율로 

거래된다는 것을 의미합니다. 그러나 Nvidia는 아직 최고 수준의 이윤을 달성하지 못했으며, 

하지만 인상적인 성장 전망으로 인해 다가오는 분기에는 개선될 것으로 예상됩니다.

 

Should Nvidia double its revenue, that only reduces its P/E ratio to 53, still an expensive figure. Additionally, Nvidia would need to sustain that revenue level for the valuation to make sense, and that's not guaranteed to happen once data centers meant for powering AI are built out.

Valuation should always be considered when purchasing a stock, but it becomes even more critical when a massive amount of hype surrounds it. By doing a quick gut-level check, you can determine if a stock is even worth considering.

 

만약 Nvidia의 매출이 2배로 증가한다고 해도, 그것은 여전히 주가 수익비율을 53으로만 낮추는 것이기 때문에 

여전히 비싼 숫자입니다. 게다가, Nvidia는 그러한 매출 수준을 유지하기 위해서는 AI를 구동하기 위한 

데이터 센터가 건설되는 것이 보장된다는 것은 아닙니다.

주식을 구매할 때는 항상 가치 평가를 고려해야 하지만, 특히 주식에 대한 큰 흥미가 둘러싸인 경우에는 

더욱 중요해집니다. 짧은 시간 내에 직관적으로 체크함으로써 주식이 고려할 가치가 있는지 판단할 수 있습니다.

 

 

 

2. Is the time right?

After passing the valuation test, it's OK to ask: "Is this AI stock good for me in my current situation?" If you're a young investor with a long investment horizon, this answer is likely "yes." However, investing in a volatile industry may not be the right choice if you're nearing or already in retirement. Although there's a ton of talk about how AI will change the world, there's no guarantee of its overall effect. Gartner has a visual known as the "Gartner Hype Cycle," which talks about how people view technology as it becomes popular. In my opinion, we're still on the roller coaster up to the peak of inflated expectations.

 

2. 타이밍이 적절한가요?
가치 평가 테스트를 통과한 후에는 "현재 상황에서 이 AI 주식이 나에게 적합한가?"라고 물어봐도 괜찮습니다. 

투자 기간이 긴 젊은 투자자라면 이에 대한 대답은 아마도 "예"일 것입니다. 그러나 불안정한 산업에 투자하는 것은

 퇴직에 접근하거나 이미 퇴직한 경우에는 적합한 선택이 아닐 수 있습니다.

인공지능이 세상을 바꿀 것이라는 말이 많이 나오지만, 전반적인 효과에 대한 보장은 없습니다. 

가트너(Gartner)는 기술이 인기를 얻으면서 사람들이 어떻게 기술을 인식하는지에 대해 

"가트너 하이프 사이클"이라고 하는 시각화를 제시하고 있습니다. 

제 개인적인 의견으로는, 우리는 과장된 기대치의 정점에 이르기까지 아직 롤러코스터를 타고 있는 중입니다.

 

 

 

The key is to find a reasonably priced company that can survive into the plateau of productivity, where massive investment gains can be seen. If you don't have the patience or time horizon to see an AI investment through to that end, then maybe investing in AI isn't a smart decision.

 

핵심은 합리적인 가격으로 지속 가능한 회사를 찾는 것입니다. 그 회사가 생산성 고원에 도달하여 대규모 투자 수익을 얻을 수 있는 시기에 살아남을 수 있는 회사를 찾아야 합니다. 만약 AI 투자를 그러한 목표까지 이루어내기 위한 인내심이나 투자 기간이 없다면, AI에 투자하는 것은 현명한 결정이 아닐 수 있습니다.

 

3. Is AI an actual influence on this business?

 

How many companies touted their "metaverse" aspirations in late 2020, and how many are still pursuing that goal?

This same concept applies to the blockchain, connected home, or even 5G. Many companies discussed these topics to satisfy shareholders during presentations or conference calls, but nothing ever came to fruition.

 

3. 이 비즈니스에 인공지능은 실제로 영향을 미치는가요?
2020년 말에 자신들의 "메타버스" 포부를 얼마나 많은 회사가 과시했으며, 

그 목표를 여전히 추구하고 있는 회사는 몇 개인가요? 

이와 마찬가지로 블록체인, 연결된 가정, 심지어 5G에도 이 개념이 적용됩니다. 

많은 회사들이 주주들을 만족시키기 위해 프레젠테이션이나 컨퍼런스 통화에서 이러한 주제를 논의했지만, 

실제로는 아무런 결과가 나오지 않았습니다.

 

When considering an AI stock, think about if AI is a game-changer or just a flash in the pan.

While large language model (LLM) chatbots are all the rage, are they necessary for every facet of life?

Probably not.

 

AI 주식을 고려할 때, AI가 게임 체인저인지 단기간의 유행인지 생각해보세요. 

대형 언어 모델(Large Language Model) 챗봇은 현재 큰 인기를 끌고 있지만, 

모든 삶의 영역에서 필수적인 것인가요? 아마도 그렇지 않을 것입니다.

 

Consider companies like CrowdStrike (CRWD -2.92%) or Palantir (PLTR -1.81%), which utilize AI at their core to power machine learning programs that can process mountains of data to perform a task without human intervention. Additionally, advertising-based companies like Alphabet (GOOG -1.38%) (GOOGL -1.25%) and Meta Platforms (META -0.29%) are developing AI models to assess an ad viewer better and create custom ads tailored just to the user.

 

크라우드스트라이크 (CRWD -2.92%) 또는 팔란티어 (PLTR -1.81%)와 같은 회사를 생각해보세요. 이들 회사들은 AI를 핵심으로 활용하여 인간 개입 없이 작업을 수행하기 위해 대량의 데이터를 처리할 수 있는 기계 학습 프로그램을 구동합니다. 게다가 알파벳 (GOOG -1.38%) (GOOGL -1.25%) 및 메타 플랫폼 (META -0.29%)과 같은 광고 기반 회사들은 광고 시청자를 더 잘 평가하고 사용자에게 맞춤형 광고를 만들기 위해 AI 모델을 개발하고 있습니다.

 

All four companies pass the valuation test and consider AI an actual business driver. While Nvidia passes test No. 3 with flying colors, it horribly fails the first test, making it a stock worth passing on.

If you're considering an AI stock, ask yourself these three questions. This should help weed out some imposters and leave them with genuinely good AI investments.

 

네 개의 회사 모두 평가 테스트를 통과하며 AI를 실제 비즈니스 동력으로 여기고 있습니다. 

그러나 Nvidia는 테스트 1을 대실패하여, 피해야 할 주식으로 여겨집니다.

만약 AI 주식을 고려하고 있다면, 다음 세 가지 질문을 스스로에게 던져보세요. 

이것은 몇 가지 사기꾼을 걸러내고, 진정으로 좋은 AI 투자만 남게 해줄 것입니다.