'23년 상반기 해상 오일앤가스 프로젝트에 투자한 돈이 680억달러(2023.07.25)

2023.07.13

Clarksons Offshore Index hits nine-year high (seatrade-maritime.com)

Clarksons Offshore Index hits nine-year high

 

A range of factors have impacted the offshore oil and gas markets over the year so far but the signals are broadly positive, with Clarksons Offshore Index hitting 99 points, only two down on the 101 notched up in 2014.

 

올해 현재까지 해상 유전 시장에는 다양한 요인들이 영향을 미쳤지만, Clarksons Offshore Index가 99점에 도달하여

2014년의 101점에서 단 두 점만 떨어진 상태로 크게 긍정적인 신호들이 보고되고 있습니다.

 

Brent crude average $80 over the first half of the year, Clarkson said in its Half Year Review, up 14% on the ten-year trend. Firmer prices underpinned higher capital expenditure with $68 billion of offshore oil and gas projects reaching final investment decisions over the first half, up 57% year on year and 41% on the ten-year trend.

 

Clarkson의 반기 리뷰에 따르면, 상반기에 브렌트 원유는 평균 $80에 거래되었으며, 10년간의 추세보다 14% 상승했습니다. 더 견고한 가격은 자본 지출을 높여, 상반기에 해양 유전 프로젝트에서 약 $680억의 투자 결정이 이뤄졌으며,

이는 전년 대비 57% 증가하고 10년간의 평균보다는 41% 증가한 수치입니다.

 

Offshore oil and gas accounts for 16% of the world’s energy, forty times more than the rapidly expanding

offshore wind sector.

 

해양 유전은 전 세계 에너지의 16%를 차지하며, 빠르게 성장하는 해상 풍력 분야의 40배에 해당합니다.

 

Related: Tidewater rides a wave in the offshore vessel market

Tidewater rides a wave in the offshore vessel market

 

FPSO activity is up, with live projects under development in Brazil, Guyana and West Africa: 13 FPSO contract awards are expected over the course of 2023, an 11-year high, Clarkson said.

Meanwhile, the firm’s  Rig Rate Index has climbed by 74% since the beginning of 2021 with utilisation of jack-up units and floaters is now at 85%. High-spec jack-ups are earning more than $150,000 a day, while the firm’s Offshore Supply Vessel index has climbed 17% over the first half to hit 161, the highest level since late 2014.

 

jack-up units 갑판 승강형 해저 유전 굴착 장치

 

Clarkson에 따르면, FPSO(Floating Production, Storage, and Offloading) 활동이 증가하고 있으며, 

브라질, 가이아나 및 서아프리카에서 개발 중인 프로젝트들이 진행 중입니다.

 2023년에는 13개의 FPSO 계약이 체결될 것으로 예상되며, 이는 11년 만에 최고 수준입니다.

한편, 해당 기업의 Rig Rate Index는 2021년 초부터 74% 상승하여 현재 잭업 유닛과 플로터 유닛의 활용률이

85%에 도달했습니다. 고성능 잭업 유닛은 하루에 $150,000 이상을 벌어들이고 있으며, 해당 기업의

해상 공급 선박 지수는 상반기에 17% 상승하여 161로 기록하였으며, 이는 2014년 말 이후로 최고 수준입니다.

 

Although there is still nominally spare OSV capacity, with a significant number of laid-up units potentially available, Clarkson points out that its OSV utilisation figure of 72% at the start of July could actually be tighter than this. Vessels laid up for long periods are likely to prove difficult to reactivate and about 43% of the currently idle fleet has been laid up for five years or more.

 

Clarkson은 여전히 이름만으로는 여유가 있는 OSV(Offshore Supply Vessel) 용량이 있지만, 많은 유닛이 휴업 중이며 이를 활용할 수 있다고 언급하고 있습니다. 7월 초에는 OSV 활용률이 72%로 표기되지만, 실제로는 이보다 더 제한적일 수 있다고 지적하고 있습니다. 오랜 기간 동안 휴업된 선박들은 재가동이 어려울 가능성이 높으며, 현재 휴업 중인 OSV 함대 중 약 43%가 5년 이상 휴업되어 있는 상태입니다.

 

Other supply constraints are evident, Clarkson said, with only small numbers of legacy newbuildings from the ‘stranded inventory’ delivering. Finance for new projects is a challenge as banks have a greater focus on ESG issues, newbuilding prices are high, and uncertainty over future fuels remains an issue.

 

Clarkson은 '폐기 재고(stranded inventory)'로부터의 새로운 선박들이 제한적으로 배송되고 있다고 언급하며, 

다른 공급 제약 사항들이 명백하다고 말하고 있습니다. 새로운 프로젝트에 대한 자금 조달은 은행들이 ESG(환경, 사회, 지배구조) 문제에 더 큰 초점을 두고 있어 어려움을 겪고 있으며, 신조선 가격이 높아지고 미래 연료에 대한 불확실성이 여전히 문제로 남아있습니다.

 

---------------------------------

 

There is a bullish outlook for the offshore vessel sector both among US owners in the sector and from analysts.

Barry Parker | Jun 22, 2023

해양 공급선(OSV) 부문에 대해 미국 소유주들과 전문가들 모두 긍정적인 전망을 가지고 있습니다.

 

The timing was perhaps coincidental but brokerage BTIG posted a strong “Buy” recommendation for offshore service provider Tidewater in a note titled “All Aboard the Offshore Services Up-Cycle,” the same day that Tidewater's President and CEO, Quintin Kneen, was a featured speaker on a panel discussion on Offshore Service Vessels (OSVs) at the 35th annual Marine Money Week, held in New York.

 

타이밍이 우연히 맞았을지도 모르지만, 증권회사 BTIG가 "All Aboard the Offshore Services Up-Cycle"라는 제목의 노트에서 해양 서비스 제공업체 타이드워터에 대해 강력한 "매수" 추천을 발행한 날에 타이드워터의 사장 겸 CEO인 퀸틴 니인이 뉴욕에서 개최된 35회 Marine Money Week에서 개최된 패널 토론에서 해양 서비스 선박(OSV)에 대해 강연자로 참가했다.

 

In his report, BTIG’s equity analyst Greg Lewis wrote that: “After a multi-year downturn which saw many an offshore supply vessel (OSV) company go bankrupt, all signs point to the industry being on the cusp of a multi-year up-cycle following years of underinvestment across the offshore energy sector and the OSV sector.”

 

BTIG의 주식 분석가인 그렉 루이스는 자신의 보고서에서 다음과 같이 썼습니다:

 "다년간의 침체 기간 동안 많은 해양 공급선(OSV) 회사가 파산하였으나, 모든 지표들이 해양 에너지 부문과 해양 공급선(OSV) 부문에서 수년간 투자 부족으로 인해 다년간의 상승 사이클이 시작될 가능성을 가리키고 있습니다."

 

Related: Tidewater leading the charge in OSV expansion

This sentiment essentially sums up the view of the conference panel moderated by DNB Markets Managing Director Jim Cerenza, which also included Todd Hornbeck, CEO of the eponymous Hornbeck Offshore Services, and John Gellert, President and CEO of SEACOR Marine Holdings.  

In his remarks, Tidewater’s Kneen said: “There is still an air of scarcity,” concerning vessels, adding that the hires are continuing to move up.

Noting that the nearby outlook for oil markets, as presented by Citibank’s energy guru Dr. Ed Morse, in a previous presentation, calls for a rangebound and sidewise pricing with a possible recession looming on the horizon, Kneen said, “We acknowledge the macro outlook, but- from our point of view, we’ve seen no pullback, and the day-rates continue to accelerate.”

 

관련 기사: Tidewater, 해양 공급선(OSV) 산업의 선도주자

DNB Markets의 이사인 Jim Cerenza가 패널 진행자로 참여한 이 회의에서 Todd Hornbeck, Hornbeck Offshore Services의 CEO이자 동명의 회사 창립자, 그리고 SEACOR Marine Holdings의 사장 겸 CEO인 John Gellert도 함께 참가하여 이 같은 견해를 전달했습니다.

Tidewater의 CEO인 Kneen은 발언에서 선박에 대해 "아직도 수급 부족한 상태"라며  언급했으며, 추가적인 고용은 계속해서 증가하고 있다고 언급했습니다. 이전 발표에서 Citibank의 에너지 전문가인 Ed Morse 박사가 제시한 주변 석유 시장 전망이 가격이 범위 안에서 움직이며 가능한 불경기가 미래에 도래할 수 있음을 강조하는 반면, Kneen은 "우리는 매크로적 전망을 인정하나, 우리의 관점에서는 감소가 없었으며, 일일 레이트(day-rates)는 계속해서 증가하고 있다"고 말했습니다.

 

Related: Middle East OSV recovery sees demand outstripping supply

Explaining some of the market psychology as the mood takes an upward turn, Kneen suggested that in the midst of a downturn, which was experienced in the OSV sector starting in 2015, that OSV owners “would take anything…so that they could get utilisation…the terms had got beaten down, whether it was substitute vessels, or no mobilisation fees”. Taking the macro view, he said: “Things are coming back, but we have a long way to go before the market would balance out. I think we should focus on that…doing the right thing for the industry…all of that is changing…but it will take a little longer”.

During the panel, the subject of consolidation came up, with Tidewater having seen it up close and personal.

 

관련 기사: 중동 해양 공급선(OSV) 시장 회복, 수요가 공급을 능가

시장 심리가 긍정적으로 바뀌는 가운데, Kneen은 2015년부터 시작된 OSV 부문의 침체 기간에 대해 설명하며, OSV 소유주들이 "활용도를 얻을 수 있도록 어떤 것이든 받아들이려 했다"고 말했습니다. 그는 또한 "조건들이 협상력이 약해진 상태였는데, 대체선박이거나 이동 수수료가 없더라도 받아들이려 했다"고 언급했습니다. 큰 그림을 보며 그는 "상황이 회복되고 있지만, 시장이 균형을 이룰 때까지는 아직 멀었다. 우리는 그에 초점을 맞춰야 한다고 생각한다... 산업을 위해 올바른 일을 해야 한다"며 주장했습니다. 그는 또한 "모든 것이 변화 중이지만 조금 더 시간이 걸릴 것"이라고 덧붙였습니다.

패널 토론 중에 합병에 대한 주제가 나왔는데, Tidewater는 이를 가까이서 지켜보고 있었습니다.

 

During the downturn, the sector saw a number of bankruptcies and in late 2018 Tidewater combined with Gulfmark Offshore, where Kneen had been the top executive, a year after both had emerged from Chapter 11 restructurings. Tidewater had risen to the top of the OSV leaderboard through the acquisition of the fleet of Swire Offshore. Once a deal now in process to acquire vessels from Solstad is concluded, Tidewatere will control some 228 OSVs.

 

침체 기간 동안, 해양 공급선(OSV) 부문은 여러 기업들이 파산하는 상황을 목격했으며, 2018년 말에 Tidewater는 Gulfmark Offshore와 합병했습니다. 그 당시 Kneen은 Gulfmark Offshore에서 최고 경영진이었으며, 두 회사는 Chapter 11 재구조를 거쳐 한 해 후에 합병했습니다. Tidewater는 Swire Offshore의 함대를 인수함으로써 OSV 시장에서 상위권으로 올라섰습니다. 현재 Solstad로부터 선박 인수를 진행 중인 계약이 완료되면, Tidewater는 약 228대의 OSV를 보유하게 될 것입니다.

 

From Tidewater’s vantage point, the future is looking bright. “It’s the supply/demand balance that lets us drive the price, and there’s nothing about the supply/demand balance telling me that it’s going to get anything but tighter,” Kneen opined as the panel wound down.  “We can double the price on a vessel and that’s not going to determine whether someone goes FID on a project,” he said.

The experts are agreeing; another analyst presenting at Marine Money, Dr. Adam Kent, from UK-based MSI, which produces a matrix with prospects for all the maritime segments viewed the OSV sector as one of the most attractive to invest in.

 

Tidewater의 관점에서는 미래가 밝아보입니다. Kneen은 패널이 끝나는 시점에서 "공급과 수요의 균형이 우리가 가격을 결정하게 해주고, 공급과 수요의 균형이 어떻게 될지에 대해서는 더욱 강조하고 싶은 것이 없다"며 견해를 밝혔습니다. "우리는 선박의 가격을 두 배로 올릴 수 있지만, 그것이 프로젝트에 투자할지 여부를 결정하는 요소는 아니다"라고 그는 말했습니다.

전문가들 역시 동의하고 있습니다. 또 다른 전문가인 Dr. Adam Kent, 영국 기반의 MSI의 대표자는 Marine Money에서 발표한 내용 중 모든 해상 부문에 대한 전망을 제시하는 행렬(matrix)을 기반으로 해양 공급선(OSV) 부문을 가장 투자가치가 있는 분야 중 하나로 간주하고 있습니다.