메모리반도체-Bernstein's 34th Annual Strategic Decisions Conference (Transcript)

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4178626-bernstein-34th-annual-strategic-decisions?dr=1

2018.06.01

virtuous~효력이 있는, virtuous cycle-선순환

데이터센터향 메모리(디램과 낸드) 매출은 2017년 290억불에서 2021년 620억불로 늘어날 것.

2.137배이며 연간 복리로 약21% 성장( 2.143배).

 

2017년에서 2021년까지 디램 수요는 연간 20%이상 증가하고. 낸드 수요는 40%-45%정도 증가 예상.

디램공급은 20%정도이고 낸드 공급은 2018년은 40-45%정도이고 2019년이후에는 연간 약 40%증가 예상.

 

2017년부터 2021년까지 데이터 생성량은 연간 22조GB에서 연간62조GB로 약 3배로 증가.

 

Sanjay Mehrotra

Good afternoon. Thank you for being here. It’s a pleasure to be here sharing

the Micron message with you. Before I share some information, let me just point to

the fact that I will be making certain forward-looking statements here.

And please do refer to our 10-K and the various filings we make with SEC from time to time

regarding any of the risk factors associated with the business.

I will highlight some of the aspects that we discussed last week at the Investor Day

during my presentation.

First, want to point out that the market for DRAM and flash are strong, are diverse

and are secular in nature.

And the applications all around us are demanding more and more memory.

 

So from memory and storage point of view,

when I say storage, I mean, flash here. And when I say memory, I mean, DRAM.

The applications are most hungry for more memory and more storage.

I’ll talk about a little bit about the market here.

In terms of the industry, in the backdrop of strong demand drivers and the increasing

complexity of the technology transitions, both on the DRAM and the NAND front,

as well as increasing capital intensity involved with this transition,

the memory industry on the supply side is stable. I’ll share that outlook with you.

And the combination of the demand backdrop and

the supply outlook makes for healthy fundamentals in our industry.

With respect to Micron specifically, and we termed it as new Micron last week

at the Investor Day. We have a winning strategy. We are extremely focused on execution

and we believe that Micron today is best positioned ever.

In terms of the applications and the end market,

let me point out that there are, of course, these billions of – tens of billions of devices

that are connected that are using data, that are creating data, that are analyzing data

and providing experiences to the consumers, as well as important business information

to the businesses.

And these billions of connected devices, of course, are also relying on the cloud

to access information, to process information and to provide these devices valuable insight.

And these devices are your smartphones. They are your PCs,

they are your surveillance cameras, your smart homes, your smart vehicles, smart cities,

I mean, these are billions of devices that we are talking about here.

They use the cloud to derive data, as well as valuable insights in order to provide experiences and value to the businesses and consumers. This in turn feeds more demand for cloud.

Cloud with the trend, emerging trend of artificial intelligence is able to provide

even more deeper insights which creates new types of devices at the edge,

which provides more value to these devices, these tens of billions of devices at the edge.

So you see it’s a virtuous cycle, virtuous cycle where data-driven value is being used to

really unleash new business models, save money to the businesses, as well as provide

consumers worldwide great experiences. And this virtuous cycle from the cloud,

more data in the cloud, more data in the devices is driving strong demand

across the Board for more DRAM and more flash,

because more memory and more storage is absolutely key to extract the value

that is available through all of this data that is being created all the time.

In 2017, about 22,000 billion gigabytes of data created. 22조 기가바이트.

A lot of that data gets stored, gets processed. Memory and flash gets used for that.

2017년에는 약22조 기가바이트의 데이터가 생성되었다. 이런 데이터는 저장되고 사용된다.

이럴 때 디램과 낸드가 필요하게 된다.

By 2021 timeframe, it’s expected that it will almost triple to about

62,000 billion gigabytes by 2021 timeframe. 62조기가바이트.

So massive growth in data that is ahead in memory and storage,

DRAM and flash are very much at the heart of these trends.

2021년에는 연간 62조 기가바이트의 데이터가 생성되는데 이런 대량의 데이터 증가는

디램과 낸드의 증가를 앞서는 것으로 디램과 낸드는 이런 기조의 중심에 있게된다.

We look at data center as one of the biggest growth drivers projecting their growth

to go from $29 billion of total available market opportunity for DRAM and flash

in calendar year 2017 growing to $62 billion, more than doubling by 2021 timeframe.

Again, data centers are able to provide the value in terms of services to the businesses

and users based on the data. They need more fast memory, that means DRAM.

They need more fast storage, that means more NAND.

Similarly, mobile is increasing in the opportunity as, well adding almost $10 billion of

total market opportunity for memory and fast storage between 2017 to 2021 timeframe.

And automotive, it’s a relatively small market, but a fast-growing market and

expected to become a larger and larger opportunity as autonomous vehicles,

which we call data center on wheels, require more and more memory and storage,

more DRAM and more flash in order to make for a safe navigation of autonomous vehicles

in the future.

But even today, the smart vehicles, the infotainment systems and a lot of the features

that are in your smartphones are actually starting to appearing in automobiles of today

as well driving growth for both DRAM and flash.

And Internet of Things, another market opportunity in its infancy,

expected to grow over the years. And some of these market opportunities frankly,

it’s tough to project exactly where they will be. They could be even much bigger.

They could be underestimated. But the point is that the trend of artificial intelligence is going

to drive greater demand for more memory and storage in all of these end markets.

So the growth trends in our end markets are secular in nature.

And if we translate those dollar opportunities that highlighted earlier and reflect those

in terms of bit growth what that shows there is on the DRAM side a bit CAGR of bit –

on the demand side between to 2017 to 2021 timeframe of approximately 20% or

slightly higher.

On the NAND side, the demand CAGR in the same timeframe is 40% to 45%.

You can see that on the DRAM what used to be a market that was mostly about PCs

in 2013 timeframe has evolved into PCs and mobile,

but also data center becoming a big growth opportunity as you can see

with the server bit demand that is shown here in 2017 and 2021 timeframe.

On the NAND side, it is about elasticity of demand, it is about client computing,

client notebook computers, displacing hard disk drives with SSDs,

as well as in enterprise and data centers more displacement of hard disk drive by SSD

due to the shared total cost of ownership benefits and the high performance benefits

that SSDs provide in the data centers.

So strong secular growth trends, both on the DRAM, as well as on the flash side.

On the supply outlook,

we project that DRAM supply for 2019 onward to be approximately 20%.

In fact, in calendar year 2018 also for the industry, we project that DRAM supply growth

to be approximately 20%. And on the NAND side for 2018,

we project NAND industry supply growth to be in the range of 40% to 45%,

and 2019 and beyond, we project NAND supply growth to be approximately 40%.