'24년 1분기 낸드 가격 23~28% 상승(2024.04.03)

2024.04.03

 

대만의 시장조사업체 르렌드포스에 따르면 2024년1분기 낸드 가격은

전분기 대비 23~28% 상승한 것으로 조사됐다.

 

지난 1월 전망치 15~20% 상승이었다.

2분기에도 낸드 가격은 13~18% 상승할 것으로 예상했다.

 

 

DRAMeXchange - 【Market View】Q2 NAND Flash Contract Prices Expected to Rise by 13–18%, Enterprise SSDs to See Highest Increase, Says TrendForce

 

Q2 NAND Flash Contract Prices Expected to Rise by 13–18%, Enterprise SSDs to See Highest Increase, Says TrendForce

TrendForce는 Q2 NAND Flash 계약 가격이 13~18% 강력하게 상승할 것으로 예상하며, 엔터프라이즈 SSD가 가장 큰

상승률을 보일 것으로 예상합니다.

 

TrendForce projects a strong 13–18% increase in Q2 NAND Flash contract prices, with enterprise SSDs expected to rise highest. Despite Kioxia and WDC boosting their production capacity utilization rates from Q1 this year, other suppliers have kept their production strategies conservative. The slight dip in Q2 NAND Flash purchasing—compared to Q1—does not detract from the overall market’s momentum, which continues to be influenced by decreasing supplier inventories and the impact of production cuts.

 

Kioxia와 WDC가 올해 Q1부터 생산 가동률을 높였음에도 불구하고, 다른 공급업체들은 생산 전략을 보수적으로 유지했습니다. Q2 NAND Flash 구매가 Q1에 비해 약간 감소했지만, 전반적인 시장의 모멘텀은 공급업체의 재고 감소와 생산량

감소의 영향으로 계속해서 영향을 받고 있습니다.

 

eMMC demand is predominantly driven by Chinese smartphone brands, leading to a substantial boost in shipments from Chinese module makers as some suppliers have reduced their supply.

Buyers are increasingly adopting solutions from module makers to meet production needs, enhancing the technological advancement of Chinese module factories and their outreach to premier clients. This trend is likely to increase the penetration of eMMC products among smartphone customers, with a projected 10–15% rise in eMMC contract prices in Q2 due to a sharp rebound in NAND Flash wafer prices.

 

eMMC 수요는 주로 중국 스마트폰 브랜드에 의해 주도되며, 일부 공급업체가 공급을 줄인 결과 중국 모듈 제조업체의 

출하량이 크게 증가했습니다. 

구매자들은 생산 요구를 충족시키기 위해 점점 더 모듈 제조업체의 솔루션을 채택하고 있으며, 이는 중국 모듈 공장의 기술 진보와 프리미어 고객에 대한 접근성을 향상시키고 있습니다. 이러한 추세는 스마트폰 고객들 사이에서 eMMC 제품의 침투율을 증가시킬 것으로 보이며, NAND Flash 웨이퍼 가격의 급격한 반등으로 인해 Q2에 eMMC 계약 가격이 10~15% 상승할 것으로 예상됩니다.

 

The UFS market is buoyed by significant smartphone demand in India and Southeast Asia, supporting strong order momentum for UFS in the second quarter. Chinese smartphone brands are increasing their Q2 orders to ensure adequate inventory levels, bolstering demand. Suppliers aiming to reach their break-even targets promptly are expected to push UFS contract prices up by 10–15% in Q2.

 

UFS 시장은 인도와 동남아시아에서의 상당한 스마트폰 수요에 힘입어, 2분기에 UFS 주문의 강력한 모멘텀을 지원하고 있습니다. 중국 스마트폰 브랜드들은 충분한 재고 수준을 확보하기 위해 2분기 주문량을 늘리고 있어서, 수요를 강화시키고 있습니다. 손익분기점 목표를 신속하게 달성하려는 공급업체들은 2분기에 UFS 계약 가격을 10~15% 상승시킬 것으로 예상됩니다.

 

Enterprise SSDs benefit from rising demand from CSPs in North America and China, with purchasing volumes expected to grow QoQ in the first half of the year. With large-capacity SSD orders experiencing low order fill rates, suppliers continue to influence price trends, likely forcing buyers to accept higher prices. As some buyers attempt to increase their inventory levels before the peak season in 2H24, Enterprise SSD contract prices are forecast to jump by 20–25% in Q2—marking the highest rise across all product lines.

 

북미와 중국의 CSP(클라우드 서비스 제공업체)로부터 증가하는 수요 덕분에 엔터프라이즈 SSD는 올해 상반기에 분기 대비 구매량이 증가할 것으로 예상됩니다. 

대용량 SSD 주문의 낮은 주문 충족률을 경험하면서, 공급업체들은 계속해서 가격 추세에 영향을 미치며, 구매자들이 더 높은 가격을 받아들일 수밖에 없게 만들 것으로 보입니다. 일부 구매자들이 2H24의 성수기 전에 재고 수준을 높이려고 시도함에 따라, 엔터프라이즈 SSD 계약 가격은 2분기에 20~25% 급등할 것으로 예측되며, 이는 모든 제품 라인 중에서 가장 높은 상승률을 표시합니다.

Client SSDs are seeing a more cautious buying strategy due to the off-season in-end sales, with some PC OEMs cutting their 2Q24 orders. The rapid price rebound will likely curb the growth of orders in the second half of the year, with PC client SSD Q2 contract price increases projected to be less than those of enterprise SSDs, at about 10–15%.

 

Post-Lunar New Year sales have continued to decline for NAND Flash wafers as downstream customers show no need for stockpiling. However, the price increase has led suppliers to fail to meet orders from Chinese smartphone brands, causing a shift to module makers.

 

As a result, Chinese module makers continue to maintain high inventory needs to expand cooperation with smartphone brands. With manufacturers keen on reaching profit targets quickly, NAND Flash wafer contract prices continue to rise. Still, the increase is expected to be significantly more moderate than in Q1, estimated at 5–10% due to subdued demand in the retail market.