2024년2분기 글로벌 디램 매출 24.8% 증가,3분기 공급 가격도 상승(2024.08.15)

2024.08.15

주의--->현재 디램 가격의 상승은 중국이 9월 미국의 또 다른 제재에 대비해 재고 쌓기때문으로 생각되므로 시장 상황을 조금 더 세밀히 주시할 필요성이 있다.단, 디램 가격 상승이 HBM생산에 생산 라인이 집중되었기 때문이라면, 가격 상승은 길어질 수가 있다고 본다.또 기존 재고 축소로 가격 상승이 이어질 수도 있다.

 

"중국 CSP(클라우드 서비스 공급업체)들은 2분기부터 AI 칩이나 메모리 구매에 대한 미국의 새로운 제재를 우려하고 있었습니다. 이에 대응하여 이들은 지난해 같은 기간에 비해 두 배 규모로 적극적으로 재고를 쌓고 있으며, 이는 DRAM 제조업체들이 더 높은 가격을 고정하도록 만들었고, 미국 CSP들에게도 조달 가격을 인상하도록 압박했습니다. 서버 DRAM 가격 상승은 PC DRAM 계약 가격 협상에도 긍정적인 영향을 미쳤습니다."

 

 

--------------------------------------------

DRAMeXchange - 【Market View】DRAM Industry Revenue Surges 24.8% in 2Q24, Upward Revision of Contract Price Increase for Q3, Says TrendForce

 

DRAM Industry Revenue Surges 24.8% in 2Q24, Upward Revision of Contract Price Increase for Q3, Says TrendForce

2024년2분기 글로벌 디램 매출 전분기 대비 24.8% 증가,3분기 공급 가격도 상승

 

TrendForce’s latest findings reveal that the DRAM industry saw a significant revenue increase to US$22.9 billion in the second quarter of 2024—a QoQ growth of 24.8%. This surge was driven by expanded shipments of mainstream products that boosted revenue for most manufacturers. Contract prices remained on an upward trend in the second quarter, and due to geopolitical factors, the increase in conventional DRAM contract prices for the third quarter is now expected to exceed previous forecasts.

 

TrendForce의 최신 보고에 따르면, 2024년 2분기 DRAM 업계의 매출이 229억 달러에 달하며 전 분기 대비 24.8%의 성장률을 기록했습니다. 이러한 급증은 주요 제품 출하량의 확대로 인해 대부분의 제조업체들의 매출이 증가한 결과입니다. 2분기 동안 계약 가격이 계속 상승세를 보였으며, 지정학적 요인으로 인해 3분기 전통적인 DRAM 계약 가격의 상승 폭이 이전 예상치를 초과할 것으로 예상됩니다.

 

Key players Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron all reported increased shipments in Q2 compared to the previous quarter. ASP also continued to rise following the first quarter’s trend. Contributing factors included the earthquake that struck Taiwan in early April and the high demand for HBM products, which shifted DRAM buyers toward more aggressive procurement strategies. Consequently, Q2 contract prices saw a final adjustment of 13%–18%.

 

주요 업체인 삼성, SK 하이닉스, 마이크론 모두 2분기 출하량이 전 분기 대비 증가했다고 보고했습니다. 평균 판매 가격(ASP)도 1분기의 추세를 이어 계속 상승했습니다. 이러한 상승 요인으로는 4월 초 대만에서 발생한 지진과 HBM 제품에 대한 높은 수요가 있었으며, 이로 인해 DRAM 구매자들이 더 공격적인 구매 전략으로 전환했습니다. 그 결과, 2분기 계약 가격은 최종적으로 13%에서 18% 사이로 조정되었습니다.

 

TrendForce highlighted that Samsung benefited from a 17%–19% increase in ASP, with bit shipments also rising slightly, leading to revenue growth for DRAM of 22% to $9.82 billion as the company maintained its market-leading position. SK hynix saw its bit shipments increase by over 20%—driven by the certification and mass shipment of its HBM3e products—resulting in a substantial revenue increase of 38.7% to $7.91 billion. Micron’s Q2 revenue rose by 14.1% to $4.5 billion despite a slight decrease in ASP, as bit shipments grew by 15%–16%. However, the company’s aggressive clearance of low-cost 1-beta nm DDR5 inventory in Q2 caused it to lag behind its major competitors.

 

TrendForce는 삼성이 평균 판매 가격(ASP)이 17%에서 19% 증가하고 비트 출하량도 소폭 상승하여 DRAM 매출이 22% 증가한 98억 2천만 달러에 이르렀으며, 이를 통해 시장 선두 자리를 유지했다고 강조했습니다. SK 하이닉스는 HBM3e 제품의 인증 및 대량 출하로 인해 비트 출하량이 20% 이상 증가하여 매출이 38.7% 급증한 79억 1천만 달러를 기록했습니다. 마이크론의 2분기 매출은 ASP가 약간 감소했음에도 불구하고 비트 출하량이 15%에서 16% 증가하여 14.1% 상승한 45억 달러를 기록했습니다. 그러나 2분기 동안 저가의 1-beta nm DDR5 재고를 적극적으로 처분한 결과, 주요 경쟁업체들에 비해 뒤처지게 되었습니다.

 

In terms of profitability, the rise in DRAM contract prices, full utilization of production capacity, reversal of inventory write-down losses, and higher sales of premium products such as DDR5 and HBM allowed manufacturers to maintain profitability in Q2. Samsung’s operating profit margin increased from 22% in the previous quarter to 37%, SK hynix saw a rise from 33% to 45%, while Micron’s operating profit margin improved from 6.9% to 13.1% due to lower contributions from HBM products.

 

수익성 측면에서 DRAM 계약 가격의 상승, 생산 능력의 완전 가동, 재고 평가손실의 반전, DDR5 및 HBM과 같은 프리미엄 제품의 판매 증가 덕분에 제조업체들은 2분기 동안 수익성을 유지할 수 있었습니다. 삼성의 영업 이익률은 전 분기의 22%에서 37%로 증가했으며, SK 하이닉스는 33%에서 45%로 상승했습니다. 반면, 마이크론은 HBM 제품의 기여도가 낮아졌음에도 불구하고 영업 이익률이 6.9%에서 13.1%로 개선되었습니다.

 

Taiwanese manufacturers showed varied performances in Q2. Nanya Technology experienced a slight decline in shipments due to weaker consumer DRAM sales, but higher ASPs improved its operating margin from -30.7% to -23.4%. Winbond increased contract prices for high-density products and boosted ASP by 24%–26%. This led to a 3.7% QoQ revenue growth to $168 million, which was also driven by higher sales of low-density, high-priced products. PSMC saw a 13.5% decline in consumer DRAM revenue but a 2.2% increase in total revenue when including foundry services that reflected their clients’ proactive inventory buildup.

 

대만 제조업체들은 2분기 동안 다양한 성과를 보였습니다. 난야 테크놀로지는 소비자용 DRAM 판매 부진으로 인해 출하량이 소폭 감소했으나, 평균 판매 가격(ASP) 상승 덕분에 영업 이익률이 -30.7%에서 -23.4%로 개선되었습니다. 윈본드는 고밀도 제품의 계약 가격을 인상하고 ASP를 24%에서 26%까지 올렸습니다. 이에 따라 1억 6,800만 달러로 전 분기 대비 3.7%의 매출 성장을 기록했으며, 이는 저밀도, 고가격 제품의 판매 증가에 힘입은 것이기도 했습니다. PSMC는 소비자용 DRAM 매출이 13.5% 감소했지만, 고객들의 적극적인 재고 확보로 인해 파운드리 서비스가 포함된 총 매출은 2.2% 증가했습니다.

 

 

Upward revision of Q3 DRAM contract prices reflects geopolitical factors

 

 

TrendForce notes that most DRAM manufacturers concluded Q3 contract price negotiations with PC OEMs and CSPs in late July 2024, with results exceeding expectations. Consequently, TrendForce has revised the Q3 contract price increase for conventional DRAM to 8%–13%—approximately 5 percentage points higher than the previous forecast.

 

TrendForce는 대부분의 DRAM 제조업체들이 2024년 7월 말에 PC OEM 및 CSP와의 3분기 계약 가격 협상을 마무리했으며, 결과는 기대치를 초과했다고 언급했습니다. 이에 따라 TrendForce는 기존 DRAM의 3분기 계약 가격 상승률을 8%–13%로 수정했으며, 이는 이전 전망보다 약 5%포인트 높은 수치입니다.

 

Chinese CSPs have been fearing new US sanctions on their AI chips or memory purchases since Q2. In response, they have been aggressively stockpiling, doubling their procurement scale compared to the same period last year. This has driven DRAM manufacturers to lock in higher prices and pressured US CSPs to adjust their procurement prices upward. The increased server DRAM prices have also positively impacted negotiations for PC DRAM contract prices.

 

중국 CSP들은 2분기부터 AI 칩이나 메모리 구매에 대한 미국의 새로운 제재를 우려하고 있었습니다. 이에 대응하여 이들은 지난해 같은 기간에 비해 두 배 규모로 적극적으로 재고를 쌓고 있으며, 이는 DRAM 제조업체들이 더 높은 가격을 고정하도록 만들었고, 미국 CSP들에게도 조달 가격을 인상하도록 압박했습니다. 서버 DRAM 가격 상승은 PC DRAM 계약 가격 협상에도 긍정적인 영향을 미쳤습니다.

 

Furthermore, Samsung has started producing HBM3e wafers in its factories to ensure timely shipments following HBM3e product verification. This will likely affect DDR5 production schedules for the second half of 2024. Manufacturers are finalizing their 2025 capacity plans, with SK hynix and Samsung prioritizing HBM production over DDR5, indicating that DRAM prices are unlikely to fall in the coming quarters.