2025년에 HBM3e 12단 소비가 40%까지 증가할 것(2024.08.08)

2024.08.08

 

NVIDIA to Launch Blackwell Ultra and B200A in 2025, Increasing HBM3e 12hi Consumption to 40%, Says TrendForce

트렌드포스(TrendForce)에 따르면, NVIDIA는 2025년에 Blackwell Ultra와 B200A를 출시할 예정이며, 이로 인해 HBM3e 12hi 소비가 40%까지 증가할 것이라고 합니다.

 

TrendForce's latest findings on HBM report that the HBM capacity per single chip is increasing significantly with the iteration of AI chips. Currently, NVIDIA is the largest buyer in the HBM market, and it is anticipated that NVIDIA's procurement share in the HBM market will exceed 70% with the launch of products like Blackwell Ultra and B200A in 2025.

트렌드포스(TrendForce)의 최신 HBM 보고서에 따르면, AI 칩의 발전과 함께 단일 칩당 HBM 용량이 크게 증가하고 있습니다. 현재 NVIDIA는 HBM 시장에서 가장 큰 구매자로, 2025년에 Blackwell Ultra와 B200A와 같은 제품이 출시되면 NVIDIA의 HBM 시장 점유율이 70%를 초과할 것으로 예상됩니다.

 

TrendForce also noted that the first-generation H100 chip in NVIDIA's Hopper series was equipped with 80 GB of HBM, whereas the H200—to be released in 2024—will boast a capacity of 144 GB. The combined growth of AI chips and single-chip capacity will substantially increase overall HBM consumption. It is estimated that the annual growth rate for 2024 will surpass 200%, and HBM consumption is expected to double again in 2025.

 

트렌드포스는 또한 NVIDIA의 Hopper 시리즈의 첫 번째 H100 칩이 80GB의 HBM을 장착했으며, 2024년에 출시될 H200은 144GB의 용량을 가질 것이라고 언급했습니다. AI 칩의 성장과 단일 칩 용량의 증가로 인해 전체 HBM 소비가 크게 증가할 것으로 보입니다. 2024년의 연간 성장률은 200%를 초과할 것으로 예상되며, HBM 소비는 2025년에 다시 두 배로 증가할 것으로 예상됩니다.

 

Further TrendForce investigations indicate that NVIDIA plans to offer a scaled-down version of the B200A to OEM customers, which utilizes four HBM3e 12hi stacks—half the number used in other B-series chips. Despite the smaller HBM capacity of the B200A, the overall consumption of HBM will not be affected, as the diversification of chip options will encourage procurement by small and medium-sized customers.

트렌드포스의 추가 조사에 따르면, NVIDIA는 OEM 고객을 위해 HBM3e 12hi 스택 4개를 사용하는 축소된 버전의 B200A를 제공할 계획입니다. B200A의 HBM 용량은 다른 B 시리즈 칩에 비해 적지만, 칩 옵션의 다양성이 중소 고객들의 구매를 촉진시켜 전체 HBM 소비에 영향을 미치지 않을 것이라고 분석했습니다.

 

NVIDIA's HBM3e consumption expected to cross 85%

TrendForce reports that although SK hynix and Micron only began mass production of HBM3e in 2Q24, the shipment of NVIDIA's H200 will drive the company's HBM3e consumption share to over 60% for 2024. In 2025, the comprehensive adoption of HBM3e on the Blackwell platform, the increase in product layers, and the rise in single-chip HBM capacity will further boost NVIDIA's HBM3e consumption to over 85%.

 

트렌드포스(TrendForce)는 SK하이닉스와 마이크론이 2024년 2분기에 HBM3e의 대량 생산을 시작했음에도 불구하고, NVIDIA의 H200 출하가 2024년 NVIDIA의 HBM3e 소비 점유율을 60% 이상으로 끌어올릴 것이라고 보고했습니다. 2025년에는 Blackwell 플랫폼의 전면적인 HBM3e 채택, 제품 층의 증가, 단일 칩 HBM 용량의 상승으로 인해 NVIDIA의 HBM3e 소비가 85%를 넘을 것으로 예상됩니다.

 

The market's focus in the second half of 2024 will be on HBM3e 12hi. TrendForce predicts that the Blackwell Ultra, slated for release in 2025, will utilize eight HBM3e 12hi stacks. The GB200 might also see an upgrade alongside the planned B200A. As a result, it is estimated that the proportion of 12hi products in HBM3e will rise to 40% in 2025, with a potential for further increase.

 

2024년 하반기 시장의 초점은 HBM3e 12hi에 맞춰질 것입니다. 트렌드포스는 2025년에 출시될 예정인 Blackwell Ultra가 8개의 HBM3e 12hi 스택을 사용할 것으로 예상하고 있습니다. GB200도 예정된 B200A와 함께 업그레이드를 받을 가능성이 있습니다. 그 결과, 2025년 HBM3e에서 12hi 제품의 비율이 40%까지 상승할 것으로 추정되며, 추가 증가 가능성도 있습니다.

 

TrendForce believes that the technological difficulty at the HBM3e 12hi stage is also rising, making the validation process more critical. The sequence of completed validations may influence the order distribution. Currently, all three major HBM suppliers are undergoing product validation, with Samsung being particularly proactive in increasing market share. However, the production capacity for this year remains largely fixed and primarily focused on HBM3e 8hi, with significant growth in HBM3e 12hi output expected mainly in 2025.

트렌드포스는 HBM3e 12hi 단계에서 기술적 난이도가 증가하고 있어 검증 과정이 더욱 중요해질 것이라고 보고 있습니다. 완료된 검증의 순서가 주문 배분에 영향을 미칠 수 있으며, 현재 주요 HBM 공급업체 3곳 모두 제품 검증을 진행 중이며, 삼성은 특히 시장 점유율을 확대하기 위해 적극적으로 나서고 있습니다. 그러나 올해의 생산 능력은 대부분 HBM3e 8hi에 집중되어 있고, HBM3e 12hi의 출력 증가는 주로 2025년에 크게 증가할 것으로 예상됩니다.