마이크론 호실적 발표/약한 가이던스로 시간외 하락(2020.09.29)

캘린더 2020년-->2020년1월-12월말

마이크론 회계년도 2020년-->2019년9월초-2020년8월말마이크론 회계년도 2020년4분기-->2020년6월-8월말

2020.09.30

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/low-expectations-ahead-micron-technology-152908333.html

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4376896-micron-technology-inc-2020-q4-results-earnings-call-presentation?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=mu-micron-technology-inc-2020-q4-results-earnings-call-presentation&utm_campaign=rta-stock-article&utm_content=link-2

 

회계년도 2020년4분기(2020년6월-8월말) 실적 발표.

오늘 아침 마감한 미국장에서 마이크론은 1.99% 상승했으나.

마감후 실적 발표에서 시장 컨센서스에 못미치는 가이던스로 시간외 3.53% 하락.

 

4분기 매출 61억달러, 순이익 12억달러, EPS 1.08달러 달성.

연간매출 214억달러, 순이익 32억달러, EPS 2.83달러 달성.

시장예상치 상회.

 

다음분기 매출 52억달러(플러스 마이너스 2억달러), 주당순이익 0.47달러(플러스마이너스 0.07달러)로

시장 예상치 하회.

 

1. 4분기 디램은 매출의 72% 차지. 전분기대비 22%증가, 전년 동기대비 29% 증가.

 평균 판매 가격은 전분기대비 한자릿수 전반대 하락.

 

2. 4분기 낸드 매출은 매출의 25% 차지. 전분기대비 8%  감소. 전년 동기대비 27% 감소.

낸드 출하량은 전분기와 비슷. 평균판매 가격은 한자릿수 후반 하락.

 

3. 디램 전망

 캘린더 2020년 전체 회사의 디램 빗그로스는 산업 전체 디램 수요 10%대 중반보다는 많을 것이다.

캘린더 2021년 전체 회사의 디램 출하량 증가는 산업 전체 디램 수요 20%대에 약간 부족할 것이다.

장기적인 공급 디램 출하량 증가는 산업 평균 디램 수요 빗그로스인 10%대 중후반 증가와 비슷할 것이다.

 we expect our DRAM bit supply growth to be above industry demand in calendar 2020,

but to moderate to less than industry demand in calendar 2021.

 

4. 낸드 전망

캘린더 2020년 회사의 낸드 빗그로스는 산업 평균 수요 20%대 중반보다 많이 적을 것이다.

캘린더 2021년 회사의 낸드 빗그로스는 산업 평균 수요 30%보다 다소 적을 듯.

장기적의 회사의 낸드 빗그로스는 산업 수요 빗그로스 30%와 비슷할 것.

 

5.CAPEX (시설투자 비용)

2020년 회계년도는 79억달러.

2021년 회계년도 예상 캐펙스는 90억달러 이하로 집행할 것.

 

6.재고

4분기말 재고는 56억달러어치 또는 135일치이다. 지난 분기 재고는 131일치였다.

이것은 목표치 110일어치보다 많은 것이다.

우리는 이들 재고가 회계년도안에 정상화 되기를 기대한다.

Ending FQ4 inventory was $5.6 billion or 135 days versus 131 days last quarter.

This is above our 110-day target due in part to elevated NAND inventory as we continue to transition to replacement gate. We are also holding higher levels of raw material during this period of supply uncertainty.

We expect inventory levels to normalize over the course of the fiscal year.

 

7. 다음 분기(2020년9월-11월말) 실적 전망

매출-->52억달러 플러스 마이너스 2억달러.

매출총이익-->27.5% 플러스마이너스 1%

주당순이익-->0.47달러 플러스마이너스 0.07달러.

 

With all these factors in mind, our non-GAAP guidance for FQ1 is as follows.

We expect revenue to be $5.2 billion, plus or minus $200 million, gross margin to be in the range of 27.5% plus or minus 100 basis points, and operating expenses to be approximately $825 million, plus or minus $25 million.

Finally, based on a share count of approximately 1.15 billion fully diluted shares,

we expect EPS to be $0.47, plus or minus $0.07.

 

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Micron (NASDAQ:MU) beat FQ4 results on the top and bottom lines and outlines the DRAM/NAND performance and general industry forecasts in the investor presentation.

 

DRAM accounted for 72% of total revenue in FQ4, up from 66% last quarter. Revenue was up 22% Q/Q and 29% Y/Y. Average selling prices were down by a lower-single-digit percent range Q/Q.

 

NAND represented 25% of revenue, down from 31% last quarter. Revenue was down 8% Q/Q and 27% Y/Y.

Bit shipments were flat on the quarter, and ASPs were down by the upper-single-digit percent range.

 

Last quarter, DRAM revenue was up 16%Q/Q and 6% Y/Y with ASPs up in the mid-single-digit percent range Q/Q. NAND sales were up 10% Q/Q and over 50% Y/Y with ASPs up in the low single-digit range.

 

For the DRAM outlook, Micron expects CY20 bit supply growth to be above industry demand (mid-teens percent), CY21 bit supplies at moderate to less than industry demand (about 20%), and long-term bit supply CAGR in-line with demand (mid-to-high teens percent).

For FY21, Micron expects cost reductions in mid-single-digit range, impacted by the product mix.

 

For NAND, Micron expects CY20 bit supplies well below industry demand (mid-20% range), CY21 supplies somewhat below the industry's 30% forecast, and long-term bit supply CAGR in-line with the industry's 30% demand.

FY21 cost reductions will be in the low-to-mid-teens percent range.

End market trends: Micron says smartphone, auto, and consumer have started to recover and expects further demand improvements ahead.

 

Cloud and laptop demand remains healthy, driven by the pandemic's work from home trend.

Micron says the short-term outlook has weakened and enterprise demand is softer due to lower IT spending.

Micron halted shipments to Huawei on September 14 and expects to offset the impact by the end of Q2 FY21.

Micron shares are now down 3.4% AH. Peer Western Digital (NASDAQ:WDC) is down 2.1%.

 

Micron Technology Inc. (MU) reports Q4 2020 earnings after the U.S. closing bell on Tuesday, with Wall Street analysts expecting a profit of $0.94 per-share on $5.54 billion in revenue. The stock rose 4.8% after beating Q3 top and bottom line estimates on June 29th but industry headwinds then kicked into gear and the stock failed to break out of a 13-point trading range that’s now entered its 6th month.

Micron Technology Lowers Q4 Guidance

Micron sentiment soured in August when management told a KeyBank conference that Q4 earnings would be weaker than previously expected due to supply issues that continue to weigh on dynamic random access memory (DRAM) prices. Analysts lowered estimates after the disclosure but no one is sure about performance in the second half of the third quarter.  That confusion came into play on Monday morning when Citigroup placed the stock on the ‘Negative Catalyst Watch’, expecting Tuesday’s metrics to be below reduced guidance.

However, not everyone is bearish on Micron’s outlook. Cleveland Research analyst Chandler Converse upgraded the stock from ‘Neutral’ to ‘Buy’ last week, noting his channel checks continue to “point to a turn in DRAM and NAND pricing in Q2”. He is looking for even higher prices in the first half of 2021 and believes Micron could “outperform consensus expectations in the second half” and head into a strong 2022, underpinned by more bullish supply and demand expectations.

Wall Street And Technical Outlook

Wall Street consensus is stronger than recent price action, maintaining a ‘Moderate Buy’ rating based upon 17 ‘Buy’, 5 ‘Hold’, and just 1 ‘Sell’ recommendation. Price targets currently range from a low of $35 to a street-high $100 while the stock is now trading about $14 below the median $63 target. This humble placement could generate a high percentage ‘buy-the-news’ reaction if Tuesday’s report exceeds expectations.

The stock is dead in the water technically-speaking, stuck in a 5-month trading range that reflects broad investor indecision. Price action has crisscrossed the 50- and 200-day moving averages multiple times during this period while the broad-based PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) has exhibited leadership, lifting into a series of new highs. Micron will need to surprise market watchers with upbeat results and forward guidance to shake off this laggard status.