2021년 2분기 디램 가격 18-23% 상승할 것

2021.04.20

2분기 디램 상승률 예상치-->평균 18~23%

PC 디램--> 23~28%

서버 디램--> 20~25%

 

 

DRAM Prices Projected to Rise by 18-23% QoQ in 2Q21 Owing to Peak Season Demand, Says TrendForce

TrendForce’s investigations find that DRAM suppliers and major PC OEMs are currently participating in the critical period of negotiating with each other over contract prices for 2Q21.

시장조사업체 트렌드포스에 따르면 디램 제조사와 PC제조사간에 2021년 2분기 계약 가격 협상중이다.

 

Although these negotiations have yet to be finalized, the ASP of mainstream DDR4 1G*8 2666Mbps modules has already increased by nearly 25% QoQ as of now, according to data on ongoing transactions.

현재 가격 협상이 마무리 되지는 않았지만, DDR4 1G*8 2666Mbps 모듈 (8GB 모듈)1개당 가격은 전분기 대비

25% 정도 상승할 것이다.

 

This represents a higher price hike than TrendForce's prior forecast of “nearly 20%”. On the other hand, prices are likewise rising across various DRAM product categories in 2Q21, including DDR3/4 specialty DRAM, mobile DRAM, graphics DRAM, and in particular server DRAM, which is highly related to PC DRAM and is therefore also undergoing a higher price hike than previously expected.

이는 트렌드포스의 이전 예상치 20%보다 더 큰 상승치이다. 

한편 2분기 디램 가격 상승은 여러가지 디램 종류에서 나타날 것이다. DDR3/4 스페셜티 DRAM, 모바일 디램,

그래픽 디램과 특히 서버 디램 등이 포함된다.

 

TrendForce is therefore revising up its forecast of overall DRAM price hike for 2Q21 from 13-18% QoQ to 18-23% QoQ instead. However, the actual increase in prices of various DRAM product categories will depend on the production capacities allocated to the respective products by DRAM suppliers.

트렌드포스는 지난번 디램 상승률 예상치 18-23%에서 18-23%로 상향 조정 했다.

하지만 실제로 디램 가격의 상승률은 디램 제조사들이 각 종류별 디램에 얼마나 많은 생산 캐파 할당하냐에 달려있다.

 

PC DRAM prices are now expected to undergo a 23-28% QoQ growth in 2Q21 due to the increased production of notebook computers

2분기 PC 디램 가격은 노트북 생산 증가에 따라 23-28% 상승할 것으로 예상.

 

PC DRAM contract prices are rising by a higher margin than previously expected for 2Q21 primarily because major PC OEMs are now aggressively expanding their production targets. Furthermore, as second quarters are generally peak seasons for notebook production, PC ODMs are now estimated to increase their quarterly production of notebook computers by about 7.9% QoQ in 2Q21.

2분기는 원래 노트북 생산이 활발한 시기로 주요 PC업체의 적극적인 생산 증가로 PC 디램 가격은

이전 예상치 보다 더 상승하고 있다. 2분기 노트북 출하량은 전분기대비 7.9% 상승할 것이다.

 

Finally, with regards to the COVID-19 pandemic, vaccination rates remain relatively low across the globe, meaning WFH and distance education are likely to persist and create continued demand for notebook computers, thereby further expanding the hike in PC DRAM prices.

 

DRAM Suppliers will enjoy increased bargaining power in price negotiations as server DRAM prices are expected to increase by 20-25% QoQ in 2Q21

 

Apart from the issue of short DRAM supply, server DRAM procurement in 2Q21 has benefitted from the positive turn in the view of enterprises toward IT investments as well as the stronger-than-expected demand related to cloud migration. There was already a supply gap in 1Q21, and these developments will further drive up demand in 2Q21. Hence, difficulty has increased for buyers and suppliers in reaching an agreement on price. Suppliers are in a more advantageous position in contract negotiations since the DRAM market is an oligopoly. Therefore, compared to the previous forecast of nearly 20%, TrendForce is now expecting server DRAM contract prices to increase by 20-25% QoQ in 2Q21.