Micron은 상승할 준비가 되어 있다

2021.04.09

Micron Technology: A Stock Which Can Go Up Significantly (NASDAQ:MU) | Seeking Alpha

• DRAM and NAND industries are growing quite fast.
• 디램과 낸드 산업은 빠르게 성장하고 있다.
•  
• Micron Technology stock is significantly undervalued.
• 마이크론 주식은 상당히 저평가 상태이다.
•  
• Based on 2022 EPS estimates, the stock could rise to the $200 level.
• 2022년 주당순이익을 기준으로 추정하면 마이크론 주가는 200달러 수준까지 상승할 수있다.

1.2021년 5G 스마트폰 출하량은 5억대 정도 달할 것이다. 202년 5G 스마트폰 출하량은 2억대에서 2.5억대  정도.

  5G 스마트폰은 더 많은 디램을 필요로 한다.

 

2.2021년4월 발매되는 인텔의 3세대 제온 서버 CPU는 디램 모듈 소켓 지원이 16개로 서버당 2개의 CPU가

장착되는 것으로 보았을 때 2세대 CPU  12개X2=24개에 비해 소켓 지원이 8개 증가한다.

서버에 32GB 모듈램을 사용했을 때 서버 1대당 256GB 정도의 서버 디램이 더 사용된다.

1년에 연간 16백만대의 서버가 팔리는 것으로 봤을 때 연간 40.96억GB의 서버 디램이 더 사용된다.

 

인공지능 서버는 일반 서버에 비해 6배 정도의 디램을 필요로한다. 이런 디램 수요를 따라갈 공급이

향후 3년간은 부족할 것으로 생각한다.

 

왜냐하면 마이크론은 설비 투자를 절제하겠다는 것이 현재의 방침이고, 삼성전자는 파운드리 설비 투자로

디램 투자 여력이 부족하고, 하이닉스는 인텔 낸드 사업부 인수로 필요한 자금 10조원을 2년간 집행해야 하기 때문이다.

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2021.04.09

Micron: This Stock Is Set To Break Out

Micron (MU) Stock Is A Buy Amid Semiconductor Shortage | Seeking Alpha

Summary

• Micron doubled its valuation in 6 months. But MU is still undervalued relative to what is happening in the industry and its potential.
• 마이크론 주가는 지난 6개월간 2배가되었다. 하지만 아직도 저평가 상태이다.
•  
• Severe DRAM shortage has positive pricing impacts. The outlook for the industry is very bullish.
• 심각한 디램 공급 부족은 가격 상승에 긍정적이다. 산업 전망이 매우 긍정적이다.
•  
• Micron’s FQ3-21 outlook calls for a 15% Q/Q revenue increase and a 41% gross margin with more room to grow gross margins in FY 2021.
• 마이크론의 회계년도 3분기(3월-5월)전망은 매출은 2분기대비 15%증가, 매출 총이익은 41%증가할 것이고,
• 2021 회계년도 전체로도 더 증가할 여지가 있다.
•  
• Micron is poised to outperform revenue and gross margin expectations.
• 마이크론은 매출과 매출총이익이 시장 기대치를 뛰어 넘을 것이다.

Micron (NASDAQ:MU) is set to break out.마이크론 주가는 폭발할 준비가 되어 있다.

After good earnings were reported in March, persistent supply chain problems point to more capital growth and a big increase in gross margins this year. Based on FY 2023 earnings projections, Micron is undervalued and a buy.

 

The technical setup is bullish and points to a breakout which could unleash new momentum, short term.

Micron is up about 100% since October and if you had the foresight to buy Micron at $50 in October last year, you made a good decision as Micron trades at $94 now. Despite the strong revaluation, Micron can go even higher.

Why Micron is a buy

The chief reason: Micron benefits from a massive chip shortage in the electronics industry and growing lead times, partly due to COVID-19-related shutdowns and faster than expected increases in demand from the automotive and consumer electronics sectors. This shortage in semiconductors is affecting both chip demand and prices … negatively for buyers and positively for producers/sellers of semiconductors.

왜 마이크론을 매수해야하나?

마이크론은 전자 산업에서의 대량의 칩 부족과 길어지는 인도 기간으로 부터 수혜를 받고 있다.

부분적으로 코로나 사태로 인한 칩 부족도 원인이지만 자동차와 소비자 가전으로부터의 수요 증가가 예상보다 빠른데 기인한다.

이런 공급 부족은 칩 수요와 가격에 영향을 미치는데.... 수요자에게는 부정적으로 공급자에게는 긍정적인 영향을 미친다.

 

Supply chain challenges are likely here to stay until year-end 2021 and should drive revenue and earnings outperformance of semiconductor firms that ship DRAM.

The DRAM market is seriously undersupplied right now and a shortage of products that are in demand typically creates a seller market in which prices increase. DRAM is Micron's largest source of revenues (71%) and created $4.4b in revenues in FQ2-21.

디램 시장은 심각한 공급 부족 상태로 디램 시장에서는 가격 상승을 이끄는 전형적이 공급자 주도의 시장이 되었다.

디램 매출은 마이크론 매출의 71%를 차지하고, 2분기 44억달러의 매출을 이끌었다.

 

(Source: Micron Investor Presentation)

 

The outlook for DRAM is super bullish in FY 2021 because the industry is expected to see demand growth of 20% with supply being unable to match demand for the foreseeable future. NAND demand growth is expected to be in the low to mid 30% range.

2021년 회계년도 디램 시장에서 수요는 전년대비 20%증가할 것으로 예상된다. 하지만 공급은 이에 미치지 못할 것이다.

이는 빠르게 디램 가격을 상승시킬 것이다.

낸드 시장의 수요는 전년대비 30%초중반 증가할 것이다.

 

2021년도 마이크론의 디램과 낸드 공급은 시장 수요 증가에 못미칠 것이다.

장기적으로는 마이크론의 디램과 낸드 공급은 시장 성장과 비슷할 것이다.

 

 

Constraint-driven dynamics in the chip market are driving revenue outperformance expectations for the sector. Almost all firms asked in KPMG's Semiconductor Survey 2021 are expecting at least single digit revenue growth in FY 2021.

(Source: KPMG Semiconductor Survey 2021)

 

Optimism is independent of product category. Microprocessors, memory and optoelectronics all have an improved outlook in 2021.

(Source: KPMG Semiconductor Survey 2021)

 

Once the supply-demand imbalance in the semiconductor business has been corrected, which could last from a few months to a year, DRAM and NAND industry growth rates are likely going to decline but are still expected to grow long term.

일단 반도체 시장에서 수요와 공급이 불균형이 되면, 이 상태는 수개월에서 1년간 지속될 수있다.

그러면 디램과 낸드 산업의 성장률이 하락할 것이나 장기적ㅇㅡ로는 성장이 지속될 것이다.

 

For now, this supply problem creates a favorable backdrop for Micron which made record DRAM shipments in the last quarter. Micron's total FQ2-21 revenues got a 44% Y/Y to $6.2b and the forecast calls for even more revenue growth in FQ3.

 

 

Turning to gross margins …

Gross margin is often used to compare the profitability of businesses that produce processors. Gross margin is revenue minus production costs and gives you an idea how production costs relate to revenues. A high gross margin means that a company keeps more money from every dollar in sales.

Micron's FQ2-20 gross margin was 29% which expanded to 31% in FQ1-21 and another 2%-points in FQ2-21.

(Source: Micron)

What makes Micron attractive is that management expects a continued improvement in its gross margin in FQ3-21 ... and likely for the rest of the year.

Micron's FQ3-21 guidance calls for $7.1b in revenues and a gross margin of 41.5% ... so revenues are expected to grow 15% Q/Q and the gross margin is expected to grow another 8.5%-points. Micron's FQ2-21 revenues were up 8% Q/Q and 30% Y/Y.

(Source: Micron)

Micron's gross margin has been super cyclical over time and between 20-40% for the most time … a gross margin above 40%, which is forecast for FQ3-21, is attributable to temporary supply problems.

Micron's gross margins have historically been just as cyclical as industry demand but are in a long term uptrend. Looking at Micron's long term gross margin pattern depicted below, you could argue that the current semiconductor shortage is once again driving a cyclical expansion in the industry where gross margins that could drive up gross margins to 50% or even 60%, short term.

(Source: Macrotrends)

Micron is cheap ... despite ultra-fast revenue and earnings growth

Rarely do you come a company whose valuation has doubled in six months, but is still cheap!

So let me introduce to you to some valuation points for Micron that will show you that the semiconductor company is still not overvalued … far from it.

Based on FY 2023 earnings estimates, Micron is expected to earn $11-share.

The distribution of earnings estimates is shown in this table …

(Source: Seekingalpha)

The P-E ratio for Micron is just 8.8x which seems low given its double digit revenue growth Y/Y and exploding gross margins.

Data by YCharts

 

Micron can be compared to other semiconductor firms, most of which are also cheap based on their P-E ratios. Micron is trading well below the industry average, making it the most exciting semiconductor chip to own in the sector.

아래 표에서 보듯이 마이크론의 포워드 PER는 8.8배이고, PBR은 2.6배로 동료 반도체 업체의 평균 PER 15.8배와

PBR 9.0배에 못미친다.

 

 

Technical analysis

The setup for MU looks very supportive and could indicate a potential breakout.

MU is an uptrend since October 2020 and the share price bounced off the lower trend line multiple times. MU has positive momentum which could drive it past its double top at $95 … also a resistance area. A positive break immediately clears the way for $100.

 

 

(Source: Finviz)

Closing thoughts

The stars currently align for Micron ... the supply shortage and cyclically-driven improvements in gross margins are creating more valuation runway. 2021 is going to be a stellar year for Micron and gross margins could extend even more for the rest of the year.

Micron's share price has doubled since October but Micron can go even higher ... because MU is undervalued based on FY 2023 earnings estimates and the technical setup is also highly favorable. With this favorable context, it should be only a matter of time for Micron to break out above its double top and attack new highs.

마이크론의 주가는 작년 10월이후 2배가되었지만, 회계년도 2023년(2021.09-2022.08)의 실적 추정치에 비해서는 

저평가 상태이다.