말레이시아 무기한 봉쇄 조치로 MLCC 공급 타격(2021.07.01)

2021.07.01

말레이시아 무기한 봉쇄 조치로 MLCC 공급에 문제가 된다는데 삼성전기가 수혜를 입을 것같군요.

 

DRAMeXchange - 【Market View】Malaysia's Indefinite Extension of MCO 3.0 Expected to Obstruct MLCC Supply, Particularly for High-End MLCC, Says TrendForce

Malaysia's Indefinite Extension of MCO 3.0 Expected to Obstruct MLCC Supply, Particularly for High-End MLCC, Says TrendForce

말레이시아 무기한 봉쇄 조치로 MLCC 공급 타격, 특히 고품질 MLCC가 타격이 클 것.

 

The indefinite extension of Malaysia’s MCO (movement control order) 3.0 has posed severe challenges for the global MLCC market, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations.

말레이시아 이동제한 명령이 무기한 연장되면서 글로벌 MLCC시장에 심각한 문제가 생겼다.

 

The high-end MLCC segment, in particular, is expected to suffer the most severe shortage, and products that feature high-end MLCC, such as smartphones, notebooks, networking products, server, and 5G base station components, will likely experience a corresponding impact as well. With the imminent arrival of the traditional peak season for electronic products, ODMs may need to defer their whole-unit shipments due to potential delays in some MLCC shipments.

특히 고품질 MLCC를 사용하는 스마트폰, 노트북, 네트워킹 기기, 서버와 5G기지국 부품등이 영향을 받을 것이다.

 

TrendForce indicates that some Japanese companies (MLCC suppliers Taiyo Yuden, crystal suppliers NDK and Epson, and electrolytic capacitor supplier Panasonic), as well as Taiwanese companies (R-Chip supplier Walsin Technology, etc.) have had their Malaysia-based manufacturing operations and lead times disrupted as a result of the latest MCO 3.0 extension. Notably, Taiyo Yuden was able to partially resume its Malaysian fab operations on June 14 and activate about 60% of its work force in accordance with domestic regulations, thereby gradually ramping up its domestic capacity utilization rate to 80%. However, given the extension of MCO 3.0 through July, Taiyo Yuden will unlikely be able to raise its production capacity any further.

대만업체뿐만 아니라 일본업체들도 말레이시아에 공장이 있기 때문에 이번 이동제한 명령이 무기한 연장되면서

MLCC 주문후 인수까지 걸리는 시간이 방해받을 것이다.

특히 일본의 타이요 유덴은 말레이시아 공장을 6월14일에 재가동할 수있어서, 법규에 맞춰 60% 인력을 투입하였고,

점차적으로 80%까지 투입 예정이었으나, 7월 이동제한 명령으로 더 이상 생산 능력을 늘릴 수없게 되었다.

 

According to TrendForce’s latest findings, most MLCC suppliers currently carry a healthy level of about 60 days’ worth of low-end and mid-range MLCC inventory as of June, although Japanese suppliers are still carrying less than 30 days’ worth of high-end MLCC inventory. In view of the persistent MCO 3.0 restrictions in Malaysia, MLCC suppliers with Japan-based manufacturing operations, such as Murata, Kyocera, and Samsung, are expected to benefit from client orders redirected from suppliers whose operations are primarily based in Malaysia.

6월까지 대부분 MLCC 생산업체들은 중저품질 제품의 재고는 양호한 60일정도 보유하고,

일본 생산업체들은 고품질 재고를 30일치에 조금  못미치게 보유하고 있다.

일본에 생산기지를 가진 무라타나 교세라, 한국에 생산기지가 있는 삼성전기등은 수혜를 입을 것으로 보인다.

 

Japanese suppliers are scrambling to ramp up capacity utilization rates in response to influx of orders from ODMs in 3Q21

2021년3분기 일본 생산업체들은 ODM업체들로부터 밀려드는 주문을 소화하기 위해 앞다투어 공장 가동률을

높이고 있다.

 

With regards to various end products, Murata, Taiyo Yuden, and Kyocera, all of which are major suppliers of MLCC for iPhone and MacBook Pro, will see peak demand from 3Q21 to 4Q21 due to Apple’s upcoming release of new products in 3Q21. It should be pointed out that the MLCC used in Apple devices features specifications that are compatible with many notebooks, servers, and networking products from other manufacturers. Given Taiyo Yuden’s inability to raise its capacity utilization rates in July, ODMs are expected to aggressively compete for this particular type of MLCC in 3Q21.

2021년3분기는 애플의 아이폰이나 맥북같은 신제품 출시를 앞두고 있어서, 이 제품 생산을 위한 MLCC 주요 공급선인

무라타,타이요유덴과 교세라는 2021년3분기와 4분기 수요가 급증하는 것을 볼 수있다.

 

On the other hand, demand for servers is expected to undergo a steady growth in 3Q21. Hence, not only are ODMs closely monitoring the supply of various ICs, but the extended restrictions in Malaysia has also hindered the supply of certain passive components, such as SP-Caps, Tan caps (tantalum capacitors), and high-end MLCC.

한편 서버향 수요도 201년3분기에 꾸준한 성장을할 것으로 예상된다.

 

To mitigate potential risks of their ODM clients redirecting orders for the aforementioned components elsewhere, Murata and Kyocera have now been placing a top priority on expanding their production capacities to meet client demand.

 

Finally, the overall demand for other IT products such as Chromebooks will likely experience a slowdown in 4Q21 as increased vaccinations in Europe and the US lead to a gradual easing of border restrictions.

In addition, ODMs currently carry a relatively high level of low-end and mid-range MLCC inventory on average.

As a result, low-end MLCC suppliers, such as Yageo, Walsin, and Samsung, will likely face pressure from certain clients lowering their orders for low-end MLCC.

 

마지막으로 크롬북과 같은 IT제품향 수요는 2021년4분기에 미국과 유럽의 백신 접종률 증가로 약할 것같다.

게다가 중저품 MLCC 재고는 상대적으로 많은 수준이다.

이런 부품을 공급하는 야게오, 왈신과 삼성전기등은 고객들로부터 주문 감소에 직면할 수도 있을 것이다.