노트북 출하량은 향후 5년간 정체될 것(2022.02.14)

2022.02.09

Global notebook shipments to drop slightly in 2022, says DIGITIMES Research

 

Worldwide notebook shipments climbed 23.1% to 247 million units in 2021, after rising over 20% on year in 2020. But shipments are likely to register a slight decrease this year, according to DIGITIMES Research.

 

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2022.02.14

Notebook shipments to plateau for next 5 years (digitimes.com)

노트북 출하량은 향후 5년간 정체될 것.

 

Global notebook shipments reached 247 million units in 2021, an increase of more than 20% over 2020.

The annual growth rate was slightly less than that of 2020, but there was a net increase in shipments of more than 45 million units for the first time.

Compared to the 150-160 million units shipped pre-pandemic, the annual shipment scale of the current market has already risen by nearly 100 million units. Now the market is wondering whether this growth will be sustainable in the future.

 

2021년 글로벌 노트북 출하량은  2020년 20% 성장보다 높은 증가율을 기록하며 2.47억대에 달했다.

성장률은 2020년보다 낮아지만 수량은 더 많았다.

코로나 이전에는 노트북 연간 판매량이 1.5억대에서 1.6억대정도 판매되었으나. 현재는 거의 1억대 정도가

증가되었다. 

시장은 이런 성장이 지속될 수있을지를 의심하고 있다.

 

DIGITIMES Research believes the pandemic brought temporary and fundamental demand increases to the notebook market over the last two years. Most of the market demand in 2020 was temporary, mainly coming from emergency orders to work from home (WFH) and remote learning during the lockdown period in various countries.

This demand gradually disappeared as the pandemic eased and countries began to open up.

 

디지타임즈 리서치는 코로나 사태가 지난 2년간 노트북에 대한 일시적인 또는 근본적인 수요 증가를 가져왔다고 믿는다.

2020년 노트북 수요는 코로나로인한 보왜로 재택근무및 원격 근무에 의한 것이어싸.

이런 수요는 팬데믹이 완화되고 국가들이 봉쇄를 풀면서 점차적으로 사라졌다.

 

However, the risk that a pandemic could disrupt learning and work has caused schools, businesses, and governments to reconsider the importance of digital transformation, as well as re-examine its stock of network-connected devices.

Before the pandemic, students in advanced countries such as the US and Japan were still sharing notebooks and tablets with their peers. Up to mid-2021, as the pandemic progressed, the digital learning gap could not be avoided. Advanced countries have now made it a basic requirement that every student at every level has his or her own connected device. Eventually, other countries will also follow suit, which will lead to fundamental changes in the demand for notebooks for education.

 

 

The fundamental changes that enterprises have gone through during the pandemic have been even more significant. At the start of the pandemic, companies had to provide employees with notebooks to WFH. However, when companies realized the efficiency of their employees during WFH was no worse than when working in the office, many companies took the opportunity to encourage or require employees to continue working from home.

WFH not only saves companies money on office rental space and utilities, but the flexibility also makes it easier for international companies to ask employees to adopt flexible working hours to meet international business demands. Additionally, due to the energy savings, many companies have adopted a hybrid work model of part-home, part-office into their ESG (environmental, social, and governance) planning.

Companies requiring employees to WFH have also resulted in increased requirements for PC reserves. The hybrid work model mandates that workers travel back and forth between home and office, and thus companies mainly purchase notebooks and not desktop computers. These requirements have resulted in fundamental changes to enterprise notebook demand.

According to DIGITIMES Research, the fundamental changes in demand from the educational and enterprise notebook markets have significantly increased the installed base of notebook users. In addition, there is still growth potential in the mid-to-high-end consumer and e-sports segments. This will support future market demand in the next few years as the market experiences annual decreases in 2022 and 2023 due to the gradual waning of the temporary demand growth. From 2024 on, growth will recover with the wave of educational replacements and the maturation of the Arm processor market. Shipments in the next few years are expected to be between 230-250 million units annually.