미 0.25% 금리 인상(2023.03.24)

2023.03.24

Sorry, Elon! The Fed Didn't Drop Rates 50 BPS: Here's What the 0.25% Hike Means For Retirees

Sorry, Elon! The Fed Didn't Drop Rates 50 BPS: Here's What the 0.25% Hike Means For Retirees (yahoo.com)

 

연준은 수요일 기준금리를 25bp 더 인상하여 연방기금금리의 목표 범위를 4.75~5%로 높였습니다.

 

 

With the recent collapse of two banks serving as a backdrop, the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates another 25 basis points on Wednesday -- -- despite Elon Musk's public cry for a drop of 50 BPS.

The decision to raise the federal funds rate to a 4.75-5% target range comes on the heels of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank earlier this month. Some speculated about whether the central bank would pause its fight against inflation or even cut interest rates in the wake of the banking sector turmoil. Instead, the hawkish Fed pressed on with another interest rate hike – its ninth consecutive increase since March 2022.

A financial advisor can help you respond to interest rate changes and other financial developments. Find a fiduciary advisor today.

The move to hike the federal funds rate has wide-ranging implications across the economy, especially for retirees and those on fixed incomes. Here’s what you should know about Wednesday’s rate hike.

 

The Basics of Interest Rate Hikes

 

최근 두 은행의 붕괴를 배경으로 연준은 수요일에 금리를 25bp 더 인상했습니다 -- -- 엘론 머스크가 공개적으로 50 BPS 하락을 외쳤음에도 불구하고.

연방기금 금리를 4.75~5% 목표 범위로 인상하기로 한 결정은 이달 초 실리콘 밸리 은행과 시그너처 은행의 붕괴에 뒤이어 나온 것입니다. 일각에서는 중앙은행이 인플레이션과의 싸움을 멈출 것인지 아니면 은행 부문의 혼란으로 인해 금리를 인하할 것인지에 대해 추측했습니다. 대신, 매파적인 연준은 2022년 3월 이후 9번째 연속 인상인 또 다른 금리 인상을 압박했습니다.

재정 고문은 이자율 변경 및 기타 재정 상황에 대응하는 데 도움을 줄 수 있습니다. 오늘 신탁 고문을 찾으십시오.

연방 기금 금리를 인상하려는 움직임은 경제 전반에 걸쳐 광범위한 영향을 미치며 특히 퇴직자와 고정 소득자에게 영향을 미칩니다. 수요일 금리 인상에 대해 알아야 할 사항은 다음과 같습니다.

금리 인상의 기본

 

The federal funds rate is the target interest rate at which banks borrow and lend money to each other. Set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the federal funds rate impacts everything from mortgage rates and auto loans to your credit card’s interest rate.

When interest rates rise, borrowing money becomes more expensive – both for consumers and businesses. This typically causes economic growth to slow. But that’s a worthwhile sacrifice to make in the eyes of the Fed, which is using rate hikes to cool down the economy and curb persistent inflation.

While the central bank previously said inflation was “transitory” and would eventually abate, it’s had to escalate the fight against inflation. In just over a year, the Fed has dramatically raised the federal funds rate target range from 0-0.25% all the way to 4.75-5%.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) – the benchmark by which inflation is measured – rose 6% from March 2022 through February 2023. While inflation has come down since hitting a 40-year high of 9.1% in June, it’s still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, necessitating the Fed’s hawkish stance.

As a result, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told the Senate Banking Committee on March 7 that more aggressive rate hikes may be required. But that was before the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, leading some to speculate that the Fed could pause or even cut interest rates.

 

연방 기금 금리는 은행이 서로 돈을 빌리고 빌려주는 목표 금리입니다. FOMC(Federal Open Market Committee)에서 설정한 연방 기금 금리는 모기지 금리 및 자동차 대출에서 신용 카드 금리에 이르기까지 모든 것에 영향을 미칩니다.

금리가 오르면 돈을 빌리는 것이 소비자와 기업 모두에게 더 비싸집니다. 이것은 일반적으로 경제 성장을 둔화시킵니다. 그러나 그것은 경제를 식히고 지속적인 인플레이션을 억제하기 위해 금리 인상을 사용하는 연준의 눈에는 가치 있는 희생입니다.

중앙은행은 이전에 인플레이션이 "일시적"이며 결국 완화될 것이라고 말했지만 인플레이션과의 싸움을 확대해야 했습니다. 불과 1년여 만에 연준은 연방기금 금리 목표 범위를 0-0.25%에서 4.75-5%로 대폭 인상했습니다.

인플레이션을 측정하는 벤치마크인 모든 도시 소비자를 위한 소비자 물가 지수(CPI-U)는 2022년 3월부터 2023년 2월까지 6% 상승했습니다. 여전히 연준의 목표치인 2%를 훨씬 상회하고 있어 연준의 매파적 입장이 필요합니다.

그 결과 제롬 파월 연준 의장은 3월 7일 상원 은행위원회에서 보다 공격적인 금리 인상이 필요할 수 있다고 말했습니다. 그러나 그것은 Silicon Valley Bank와 Signature Bank가 붕괴되기 전이었고 일부에서는 연준이 금리를 일시 중지하거나 심지어 인하할 수 있다고 추측했습니다.

 

How the Latest Rate Hike Affects Retirees

 

Here’s a look at some of the implications of Wednesday’s rate hike for retirees and others on fixed incomes:

Cash Becomes More Valuable

When interest rates rise, banks can offer higher annual percentage yields (APYs) on savings accounts and other deposits. While inflation reduces the purchasing power of cash, interest rate hikes mean cash reserves will generate more interest than they would otherwise. This is particularly valuable for retirees who are typically advised to keep between six months’ and two years’ worth of cash on hand to cover their immediate and short-term living expenses. An interest rate hike means that cash will work even harder. In fact, some banks are offering high-yield savings accounts with interest rates north of 4%.

I Bonds and TIPS May Earn Less Interest

Series I savings bonds and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are two types of bonds issued by the U.S. government designed to provide protection against inflation. If inflation falls in response to Wednesday’s rate hike – or subsequent hikes – these assets won’t pay out as much.

Twice a year, the Treasury adjusts the amount of interest that I bonds earn, linking those increases or decreases to the CPI-U. The most recent rate adjustment in November saw I bond interest rates go from 9.62% to 6.89%. The next interest rate adjustment will occur May 1.

TIPS work slightly differently. Instead of the interest rate rising and falling with the CPI-U, the principal value of a TIPS bond changes with inflation.

Will Stocks Fall?

It’s unclear exactly how the latest rate hike will affect stocks in the coming days and weeks. As a general rule, though, stocks tend to drop in value when interest rates rise. That played out on Wednesday when the three major indices – the Dow Jones, NASDAQ and S&P 500 – were each down more than 1.60%. As a general rule, higher interest rates slow down economic growth and make it more difficult for businesses to borrow money.

It’s also unclear whether more rate hikes are coming. In a statement Wednesday, the Fed said “some additional policy firming may be appropriate,” but it didn’t explicitly state that rates will continue to rise.

Bottom Line

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates another 25 basis points on Wednesday, pushing the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.75-5%. For retirees, that means cash deposits will likely continue to earn more interest. Retirees with Series I savings bonds should keep an eye out for the Treasury’s next interest rate adjustment in May to determine how Wednesday’s rate hike could impact their investments. Meanwhile, stocks fell Wednesday in the wake of the Fed’s announcement.

 

다음은 은퇴자 및 기타 고정 수입에 대한 수요일 금리 인상의 의미 중 일부입니다.

현금의 가치가 높아집니다

이자율이 상승하면 은행은 저축예금 및 기타 예금에 대해 더 높은 연이율(APY)을 제공할 수 있습니다. 인플레이션은 현금의 구매력을 감소시키지만, 금리 인상은 현금 준비금이 그렇지 않은 경우보다 더 많은 이자를 발생시킨다는 것을 의미합니다. 이것은 즉시 및 단기 생활비를 충당하기 위해 일반적으로 6개월에서 2년치의 현금을 보유하도록 권고받는 퇴직자에게 특히 유용합니다. 금리 인상은 현금이 더 열심히 작동한다는 것을 의미합니다. 실제로 일부 은행에서는 이자율이 4%가 넘는 고수익 예금 계좌를 제공하고 있습니다.

I 채권과 TIPS는 더 적은 이자를 받을 수 있습니다.

시리즈 I 저축 채권과 TIPS(Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities)는 미국 정부가 인플레이션을 방지하기 위해 발행한 두 가지 유형의 채권입니다. 수요일의 금리 인상 또는 후속 인상으로 인해 인플레이션이 하락하면 이러한 자산은 그만큼 보상을 받지 못할 것입니다.

1년에 두 번 재무부는 I 채권이 벌어들이는 이자의 금액을 조정하여 이러한 증가 또는 감소를 CPI-U에 연결합니다. 가장 최근의 11월 금리 조정에서는 I 채권 금리가 9.62%에서 6.89%로 인하되었습니다. 다음 금리 조정은 5월 1일에 이루어집니다.

팁은 약간 다르게 작동합니다. CPI-U에 따라 금리가 오르내리는 대신 TIPS 채권의 원금 가치는 인플레이션에 따라 변합니다.

주식이 떨어질까요?

최근의 금리 인상이 앞으로 며칠, 몇 주 동안 주식에 어떤 영향을 미칠지는 정확히 불확실합니다. 그러나 일반적으로 주식은 금리가 오르면 가치가 떨어지는 경향이 있습니다. 다우존스, 나스닥, S&P 500 등 3대 주요 지수가 각각 1.60% 이상 하락한 수요일에 이런 상황이 벌어졌습니다. 일반적으로 높은 이자율은 경제 성장을 둔화시키고 기업이 돈을 빌리는 것을 더 어렵게 만듭니다.

추가 금리 인상 여부도 불투명하다. 연준은 수요일 성명에서 "일부 추가 정책 강세가 적절할 수 있다"고 말했지만 금리가 계속 상승할 것이라고 명시적으로 밝히지는 않았습니다.

결론

연준은 수요일 기준금리를 25bp 더 인상하여 연방기금금리의 목표 범위를 4.75~5%로 높였습니다. 퇴직자의 경우 이는 현금 예금이 계속해서 더 많은 이자를 받을 수 있음을 의미합니다. 시리즈 I 저축 채권을 가지고 있는 은퇴자들은 수요일의 금리 인상이 그들의 투자에 어떤 영향을 미칠 수 있는지 결정하기 위해 5월 재무부의 다음 금리 조정을 주시해야 합니다. 한편 수요일 주식은 연준의 발표 이후 하락했습니다.