미국 모기지 30년 고정 금리 6.61%로 하락(2023.12.28)

2023.12.28

Mortgage rates slide again to lowest level since May (yahoo.com)

 

Mortgage rates are down again this week — the lowest level since May.

이번 주 주택담보대출 금리가 다시 내렸습니다. 이번 주 금리는 5월 이후로 최저 수준입니다.

 

The rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage declined to 6.61% from 6.67% the week prior, according to data released by Freddie Mac on Thursday. Rates fell for the ninth consecutive week.

Overall, rates have fallen over a full point from 7.79% in October.

 

데일리데이터에 따르면, 30년 고정금리 주택담보대출 금리는 지난 주의 6.67%에서 6.61%로 하락했습니다. 

이는 연 이주째 주택담보대출 금리가 하락했으며, 전반적으로 10월의 7.79%로부터 1% 이상 하락했습니다.

 

For potential homebuyers, the recent improvement should, in theory, provide relief. But the limited inventory of existing homes on the market continues to be a challenge when it comes to affordability.

 

잠재적인 주택 구매자들에게는 최근의 개선이 이론상으로는 안도감을 줄 것으로 예상됩니다. 

그러나 시장에 존재하는 기존 주택의 제한된 공급량은 주택 구매의 가용성에 어려움을 줍니다.

 

Said Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH.com: “A drop in rates makes it more likely that prices will start heading higher earlier than normal in 2024, and higher prices will erase some of the benefits of lower mortgage rates.”

HSH.com의 부사장 Keith Gumbinger는 "금리 하락은 주택 가격이 2024년에 일찍 상승할 가능성이 높아져서,

높아지는 가격이 낮은 주택담보대출 금리의 일부 혜택을 상쇄시킬 것"이라고 말했습니다.

 

 

 

Mortgage rates held steady this week as they tracked the yield on the 10-year Treasury, which remained around 3.9% after the Federal Reserve announced its decision to hold its benchmark rate steady in December.

 

이번 주 주택담보대출 금리는 10년 만기 미국 국채 수익률을 추적하며 안정을 유지했습니다. 미 연방준비제도(Fed)가 

12월에 기준금리를 유지하기로 결정한 이후 10년 만기 국채 수익률은 약 3.9%로 유지되었습니다.

 

The Fed also signaled plans to cut rates up to three times in 2024, improving economists' outlook for mortgage rates. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) forecasted rates to average 6.3% in 2024, while economists at Realtor.com said they expect rates to average 6.8% for the majority of the year before dipping to 6.5% by year-end.

 

Fed는 또한 2024년에 최대 세 차례 금리를 인하할 계획을 시사하여, 주택담보대출 금리에 대한 경제학자들의 전망을 

개선했습니다. 미국 부동산협회(NAR)는 2024년 평균 금리를 6.3%로 예측했으며, Realtor.com의 경제학자들은 

해당 연도 대부분의 기간 동안 평균 금리가 6.8%로 유지된 뒤 연말에는 6.5%로 떨어질 것으로 예상했습니다.

 

Though homebuyers have been slow to respond to the recent decline in rates, as is typical during holiday season, that may soon shift in the new year.

 

“If rates remain low into the middle of next month, there's a good likelihood that we'll see a fairly strong response on the part of potential homebuyers,” Gumbinger said.

 

최근 금리 하락에 대한 주택 구매자들의 반응은 휴일 시즌에 일반적인 것처럼 느리게 나타났지만, 새해에는 이에 변화가 있을 것으로 예상됩니다.

Gumbinger는 "만약 금리가 다음 달 중순까지 낮은 수준을 유지한다면, 잠재적인 주택 구매자들의 꽤 강한 반응이 예상될 가능성이 높습니다"라고 말했습니다.

 

Some homeowners may even be enticed to sell if they think they can get a good interest rate. Though for the most part, folks seem to be happy with their current rates.

 

일부 주택 소유주들은 좋은 이자율을 얻을 수 있다고 생각한다면 집을 팔기에 유혹될 수도 있습니다. 

하지만 대부분의 경우, 사람들은 현재의 금리에 만족하는 것으로 보입니다.

 

According to Realtor.com roughly two-thirds of outstanding mortgages have a rate under 4% and more than 90% have a rate less than 6%. In November, though, there were 7.5% more newly listed homes on the market compared to last year — a sign of some more action from sellers.

 

Realtor.com에 따르면 현재 아웃스탠딩(미상환) 중인 주택담보대출의 대략 2/3가 4% 이하의 금리를 갖고 있으며, 

90% 이상은 6% 미만의 금리를 가지고 있습니다. 그러나 지난 11월에는 작년과 비교하여 시장에 신규로 나온 주택의

모가자 금리는  7.5%이상 이었 습니다. 이는 판매자들로부터 몇몇 활동의 징후입니다.

 

“There are more sellers coming into the market, but it’s still limited,”Jeffrey Ruben, president of WSFS Mortgage, told Yahoo Finance. “The overall story for the housing market is that there are fewer homes available compared to the number of people who want to buy a home.”

 

"시장으로 진입하는 판매자가 더 많아지고 있지만, 그럼에도 여전히 제한적입니다," WSFS Mortgage의 회장 Jeffrey Ruben은 Yahoo Finance에 말했습니다. "주택 시장의 전반적인 상황은 많은 사람들이 주택을 구매하길 원하는 인구 대비 주택 수가 적다는 것입니다."

 

'If rates fall … expect bidding wars'     "금리가 하락한다면 ... 경쟁 입찰전을 기대하세요"

 

Although the recent declines in mortgage rates haven’t translated to a recovery in home sales, there have been some subtle signs of life in the market.

최근의 주택담보대출 금리 하락은 주택 판매 회복으로 이어지지 않았지만, 시장에서 약간의 활기를 나타내는 세심한 

신호가 있었습니다.

 

November existing home sales saw an increase for the first time in five months, with NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun noting that more activity could be expected in the resale market if rates continue to plunge.

 

11월 기존 주택 판매 매출은 5개월 만에 처음으로 증가했는데, NAR의 주요 경제학자인 로렌스 윤은 금리가 계속

하락한다면 재판매 시장에서 더 많은 거래가 예상된다고 언급했습니다.

 

The volume of refinance applications also saw a boost the week ending Dec. 8, jumping as much as 19%, according to the MBA. In November, new home purchases also increased 21.8% from a year ago, a reversal from October when high rates caused applications to fall by 12%.

 

주택 담보 재융자 신청량도 MBA(Mortgage Bankers Association)에 따르면 12월 8일 주간에 19%까지 증가했습니다. 11월에는 신규 주택 구매도 지난해 같은 기간 대비 21.8% 증가했는데, 이는 높은 금리로 인해 10월에 신청량이 12% 감소한 것을 반전시킨 것입니다.

 

Still, it will take at least a couple of months for some economic indicators to pick up the shift in the market. Contract signings or pending home sales, for example, take at least one to two months before they register as a fulfilled sale.

 

그러나 일부 경제 지표가 시장의 변화를 반영하는 데는 적어도 몇 달이 걸릴 것입니다. 예를 들어, 계약 서명이나 

보류 중인 주택 매출은 최소한 한 달에서 두 달이 걸리기 때문에 판매로 기록되기까지 시간이 필요합니다.

 

“We may not see any meaningful recovery for at least two or three months, just because even with meaningfully lower mortgage rates, there is a natural time involved [in the homebuying process],” Yun said during the press conference last week. “[And homebuyers] do not change their mindset from being on the sidelines to going into the market in one day.”

지난 주 기자회견에서 윤은 "적어도 두~세 달 동안은 의미 있는 회복을 볼 수 없을 것"이라며 "의미 있는 주택담보대출 금리 하락이 있더라도 주택 구매 과정에는 자연스러운 시간이 필요하며, [주택 구매자들]은 그들의 마음가짐을 그저 하루 만에 변화시키지 않습니다."라고 말했습니다.

 

While inventory of previously owned homes has improved modestly, they are still near historically low levels, pushing home prices higher. For instance, the median sales price for a previously owned home rose 4% year over year to $387,600 in November, according to the NAR, marking the fifth consecutive month of increases.

 

중고 주택 재고가 소폭 개선되었지만, 여전히 역사적으로 낮은 수준에 있어 주택 가격을 끌어올리고 있습니다. 

예를 들어, NAR(National Association of Realtors)에 따르면 11월에 중고 주택의 중간 판매가격은 연간 4% 상승하여 

38만 7천 600달러로 나타났는데, 이는 연속 다섯 달째  상승입니다.

 

The inventory of unsold existing homes also fell 1.7% last month to 1.13 million units at the end of November, equal to 3.5 months of supply. Housing experts recommend at least six months of supply for a balanced market.

 

지난 달 미판매 중인 기존 주택 재고도 11월말에 1.13백만 호로 1.7% 줄어들었는데, 이는 3.5개월치의 공급량에

해당합니다. 주택 전문가들은 균형 잡힌 시장을 위해 적어도 6개월의 공급을 권장합니다.

 

“If rates fall, we will see more buyers come back to the market and with limited inventory that will create bidding wars that push up prices,” Ruben said. “We're seeing a bit of relief on new listings right now with more sellers deciding now is the best time to sell and maybe that will continue into next year.”

 

Ruben은 "만약 금리가 하락한다면, 더 많은 구매자들이 시장으로 돌아오게 되며, 한정된 재고로 인해 가격을 끌어올리는 입찰전이 발생할 것"이라고 말했습니다. "새로운 매물에 대해 현재 약간의 안도감을 볼 수 있으며, 더 많은 판매자들이 지금이 최적의 판매 시기라고 결정하고, 아마도 이러한 경향이 내년에도 이어질 것"이라고 덧붙였습니다.