왜 8월 고용 보고서가 연준의 25bp(기준금리 0.25%포인트) 인하를 계속 유도하는가(2024.09.07)

2024.09.07

'The time has come': Why the August jobs report keeps the Fed on track for a 25 basis point rate cut (yahoo.com)

 

'The time has come': Why the August jobs report keeps the Fed on track for a 25 basis point rate cut

'때가 되었다': 왜 8월 고용 보고서가 연준의 25bp(기준금리 0.25%포인트) 인하를 계속 유도하는가

 

A rebound in the job market in August that still showed signs of cooling is likely to keep the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point this month.

The results: 142,000 jobs were created in the month of August, compared with economists' expectations for 165,000 and up from 89,000 in July that was revised down from 114,000. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2% from 4.3% in July.

 

8월 고용시장이 반등했지만 여전히 둔화의 징후를 보였으며, 이는 연준이 이번 달에 금리를 0.25%포인트 인하하는 방향으로 나아가게 할 가능성이 높습니다.

결과는 다음과 같습니다. 8월에 14만 2천 개의 일자리가 창출되었으며, 이는 경제학자들이 예상한 16만 5천 개보다 적지만 7월의 8만 9천 개(기존 11만 4천 개에서 수정된 수치)보다 증가한 수치입니다. 실업률은 7월의 4.3%에서 4.2%로 소폭 하락했습니다.

 

 

With continued cooling in the job market and confidence that inflation is now dropping back toward the central bank's 2% target, two members of the Fed said Friday the time has come to cut rates but stopped short of telegraphing by how much.

"I believe the time has come to lower the target range for the federal funds rate at our upcoming meeting," Fed governor Chris Waller said in a speech at the University of Notre Dame titled "The time has come."

Read more: What the Fed rate decision means for bank accounts, CDs, loans, and credit cards

 

고용 시장의 지속적인 둔화와 인플레이션이 이제 중앙은행의 2% 목표로 되돌아가고 있다는 확신 속에서, 연준의 두 명의 위원은 금요일에 금리를 인하할 때가 되었다고 말했지만, 구체적인 인하 폭에 대해서는 언급하지 않았습니다.

"다가오는 회의에서 연방기금 금리 목표 범위를 낮출 때가 되었다고 생각합니다,"라고 연준 이사인 크리스 월러는 노트르담 대학교에서 "때가 되었다"라는 제목의 연설에서 말했습니다.

더 읽기: 연준의 금리 결정이 은행 계좌, 예금증서(CD), 대출, 신용카드에 미치는 영향

 

Meanwhile, in prepared remarks before the Council on Foreign Relations, New York Fed president John Williams said, “It is now appropriate to dial down the degree of restrictiveness in the stance of policy by reducing the target range for the federal funds rate.”

한편, 뉴욕 연방준비은행 총재 존 윌리엄스는 외교협회에서 사전 준비된 발언에서 "연방기금 금리 목표 범위를 줄여 정책의 제약 정도를 완화하는 것이 이제 적절하다"고 말했습니다.

 

Williams said this is a natural step and that interest rates can move down to a more “neutral stance over time.”

The central bank, which is set to meet September 17 and 18, is laser focused on the job market now, as the labor market has weakened. At the same time officials who were worried about inflation — the other half of the Fed’s dual mandate — are more confident inflation is cooling sustainably back to their 2% target.

윌리엄스는 이것이 자연스러운 단계이며, 시간이 지남에 따라 금리가 더 "중립적인 입장"으로 이동할 수 있다고 말했습니다.

연준은 9월 17일과 18일에 열릴 회의를 앞두고 현재 고용 시장에 집중하고 있습니다. 노동 시장이 약화된 상태이기 때문입니다. 동시에, 연준의 이중 임무 중 다른 한 축인 인플레이션에 대해 걱정하던 관계자들도 인플레이션이 지속 가능하게 2% 목표로 안정되고 있다는 자신감을 더 가지고 있습니다.

 

Bets by investors on how much the Fed could cut rates at its next meeting, based on the CME Fed Watch tool, have fluctuated wildly all day from around a 50-50 chance the central bank could cut by a quarter or half a percentage point to greater odds — a nearly 60% chance — the Fed will cut by half a percent.

Fears swirled after a weaker-than-expected jobs report in July stoked recession fears and caused the central bank to shift greater focus toward the job market. The August jobs report confirmed the cooling trend and underscored that the sky isn't falling.

 

CME Fed Watch 도구를 기반으로 한 투자자들의 다음 연준 회의에서 금리를 얼마나 인하할지에 대한 베팅은 하루 종일 크게 변동했습니다. 중앙은행이 0.25%포인트 또는 0.5%포인트 인하할 가능성이 50대 50이었던 것이, 0.5%포인트 인하할 가능성이 거의 60%에 달하는 쪽으로 기울어졌습니다.

7월 고용 보고서가 예상보다 약하게 나오면서 경기 침체에 대한 우려를 불러일으켰고, 중앙은행은 고용 시장에 더 큰 중점을 두기 시작했습니다. 8월 고용 보고서는 이러한 둔화 추세를 확인하면서도 상황이 그렇게 심각하지 않음을 보여주었습니다.

 

Fed governor Waller said the jobs report for August supports the story of ongoing moderation in the labor market.

“Today’s jobs report continues the longer-term pattern of a softening of the labor market that is consistent with moderate growth in economic activity," Waller said.

 

연준 이사 월러는 8월 고용 보고서가 노동 시장의 지속적인 완화 추세를 뒷받침한다고 말했습니다.

"오늘 발표된 고용 보고서는 경제 활동의 완만한 성장을 뒷받침하는 노동 시장의 장기적인 완화 패턴을 이어가고 있습니다,"라고 월러는 말했습니다.

 

"While the labor market has clearly cooled, based on the evidence I see, I do not believe the economy is in a recession or necessarily headed for one soon," he added.

Still, Waller argues to maintain economic growth the Fed needs to start cutting rates.

"노동 시장이 분명히 냉각되었지만, 제가 보는 증거에 따르면 경제가 현재 침체에 있거나 곧 침체에 빠질 것이라고 생각하지 않습니다,"라고 그는 덧붙였습니다.
그럼에도 불구하고 월러는 경제 성장을 유지하기 위해 연준이 금리를 인하하기 시작해야 한다고 주장합니다.

 

Comments from Waller and Williams in favor of cutting rates now echo Fed Chair Jay Powell's statement in a speech in Jackson Hole, Wyo., on Aug. 23 that "the time has come for policy to adjust."

 

월러와 윌리엄스의 금리 인하를 지지하는 발언은 8월 23일 와이오밍 잭슨홀에서 연설한 연준 의장 제이 파월의 발언을 반영하고 있습니다. 당시 파월은 "정책 조정의 때가 되었다"고 말했습니다.

 

Powell also said then that the cooling in the labor market has been "unmistakeable" and added that the central bank does not "seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions."

 

파월은 또한 노동 시장의 냉각이 "명확하다"고 언급하며, 중앙은행이 노동 시장 상황의 추가적인 냉각을 "추구하거나 환영하지 않는다"고 덧붙였습니다.

 

Now, the question markets are grappling with is how big that first cut might be and how many cuts will ensue.

이제 시장이 고민하는 질문은 첫 번째 금리 인하가 얼마나 클지, 그리고 몇 번의 추가 인하가 뒤따를 것인지입니다.

 

The rebound in jobs data reinforced the case for a quarter point cut. If there had there been further deterioration, a half percentage point cut would be likely on the table. However, if unemployment continues to rise, an argument could be made that the Fed should move more aggressively.

고용 데이터의 반등은 0.25%포인트 인하의 근거를 강화했습니다. 만약 추가적인 악화가 있었다면 0.5%포인트 인하가 논의될 가능성이 컸을 것입니다. 그러나 실업률이 계속해서 상승한다면, 연준이 더 공격적으로 움직여야 한다는 주장이 나올 수 있습니다.

 

 

(  주:recalibrate 재조정하다)

 

 

Waller said he sees a series of cuts and that "if subsequent data show a significant deterioration in the labor market, the FOMC can act quickly and forcefully to adjust monetary policy."

Williams and several other officials, including Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic and Philadelphia Fed president Patrick Harker, have also said they could cut rates faster if the job market deteriorates more suddenly.

Waller said he’s open-minded about the size and pace of cuts based on the data. If the data supports cuts at consecutive meetings or the need for larger cuts, then he said he would support that.

 

월러는 연속적인 금리 인하를 예상하며, "향후 데이터가 노동 시장의 상당한 악화를 보여준다면, 연방공개시장위원회(FOMC)는 신속하고 강력하게 통화 정책을 조정할 수 있다"고 말했습니다.

윌리엄스와 애틀랜타 연준 총재 라파엘 보스틱, 필라델피아 연준 총재 패트릭 하커를 포함한 여러 관계자들도 노동 시장이 갑자기 더 악화되면 금리를 더 빨리 인하할 수 있다고 언급했습니다.

월러는 데이터에 따라 금리 인하의 규모와 속도에 대해 열린 마음을 가지고 있으며, 만약 데이터가 연속 회의에서 금리 인하를 지지하거나 더 큰 인하가 필요하다고 보여준다면, 이를 지지하겠다고 말했습니다.

 

Also, Waller said he was a big advocate of front-loading rate hikes when inflation accelerated in 2022, and he will be an advocate of front-loading rate cuts if that is appropriate.

Central bank officials will offer markets more specific insight into how they see the path for lowering rates for the rest of the year when they release their interest rate projections, known as the dot plot, at their policy meeting.

Former Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester, who just retired from the interest rate setting committee at the end of June, has said she thinks three 25 basis point cuts are in order.

 

또한 월러는 2022년 인플레이션이 가속화되었을 때 선제적으로 금리 인상을 지지했으며, 만약 적절하다면 선제적으로 금리 인하를 지지할 것이라고 말했습니다.

연준 관계자들은 정책 회의에서 금리 인하 경로에 대한 구체적인 전망을 담은 '점도표(dot plot)'를 발표할 때, 나머지 올해 동안의 금리 인하 경로에 대해 시장에 더 구체적인 통찰을 제공할 것입니다.

6월 말 금리 설정 위원회에서 은퇴한 전 클리블랜드 연준 총재 로레타 메스터는 0.25%포인트씩 세 차례 금리 인하가 필요하다고 생각한다고 말한 바 있습니다.