Moody's는 미국이 주택 위기를 해결하기 위해 '빌드, 베이비, 빌드'가 필요하다고 말합니다.(2024.09.24)

2024.09.24

America needs to ‘build, baby, build’ to fix the housing crisis, Moody’s says (yahoo.com)

 

Supply is the crux of housing woes—we’re missing millions of homes. Mortgage rates matter, too, but not nearly enough. A Moody’s economist, Nick Villa, has said it before: an interest rate cut won’t fix the housing crisis.

Now that the Federal Reserve has cut its key interest rate by half a point, he’s saying it again, with a plan.

“So, while rate relief is one part of the equation, the other, more important part, in my opinion, is supply,” Villa wrote in an analysis following the Fed cut. “Naturally, increased homebuilding comes to mind, but the type of properties that do get built should reflect varying price points and not just be concentrated on the upper end of the market.”

 

공급이 주택 문제의 핵심입니다. 우리는 수백만 채의 주택이 부족합니다. 모기지 금리도 중요한 요소이지만, 그것만으로는 충분하지 않습니다. Moody's 경제학자인 닉 빌라는 이미 여러 차례 말한 바 있습니다. 금리를 인하한다고 해서 주택 위기가 해결되지 않는다는 것입니다.

이제 연방준비제도(Fed)가 기준 금리를 0.5%포인트 인하한 후, 그는 다시 한 번 같은 말을 하고 있으며, 이번에는 해결책을 제시하고 있습니다.

“따라서 금리 인하는 하나의 해결책이긴 하지만, 더 중요한 부분은 공급입니다.” 빌라는 연준의 금리 인하 이후 분석에서 이렇게 적었습니다. “자연스럽게 주택 건설이 떠오르지만, 건설되는 주택의 유형은 다양한 가격대를 반영해야 하며, 고급 주택에만 집중되어서는 안 됩니다.”

 

In the last 25 years, the share of class A multifamily units—upscale, luxury apartments targeted at rich tenants—rose 18%, making up slightly more than 50% of the multifamily sector.

In other words, the share of class B and C multifamily units has fallen by 18 percentage points, as developers have been prioritizing buildings that command higher rents, he explained.

Class B apartments are older but considered well-maintained; class C are decades old and sometimes charge below market rents. Both are needed because not all Americans can afford luxury apartments, let alone buy their own homes.

 

지난 25년 동안 고급 임대 아파트인 클래스 A 다세대 주택의 비율이 18% 증가하여 다세대 주택 부문의 절반 이상을 차지하게 되었습니다. 

다시 말해, 개발업자들이 높은 임대료를 받을 수 있는 건물을 우선시하면서 클래스 B와 C 다세대 주택의 비율은 18%포인트 하락했다고 그는 설명했습니다.

클래스 B 아파트는 오래되었지만 잘 관리된 것으로 간주되며, 클래스 C 아파트는 수십 년 된 건물로 때로는 시장 임대료보다 저렴한 가격을 받습니다. 두 유형의 아파트는 모두 필요합니다. 모든 미국인이 고급 아파트를 감당할 수 있는 것은 아니며, 주택을 구입할 여유가 있는 사람은 더욱 적기 때문입니다.

 

Still, inventory growth for class A multifamily units increased by nearly 19 percentage points since the end of 2019, yet for class B and C units growth was just 2.6%, Villa said.

And the difference in rents is substantial and expanding. Class A asking rents were 45.4% higher than class B and C. In the first quarter of 2000, they were 41% higher. Basically, developers and builders see more revenue associated with premier buildings, so they’re constructing more.

But there’s demographic changes to account for as well, Villa noted. The share of households in the country earning more than $100,000 increased from 31.9% in 2000 to 37.5% in 2022, he said, citing data from the Census Bureau.

 

닉 빌라에 따르면, 2019년 말 이후 클래스 A 다세대 주택의 재고 증가율은 거의 19%포인트 증가했지만, 클래스 B와 C 유닛의 증가율은 2.6%에 불과했습니다.

그리고 임대료 차이는 상당하고 점점 더 벌어지고 있습니다. 클래스 A의 임대료는 클래스 B와 C보다 45.4% 더 높았으며, 2000년 1분기에는 41% 더 높았습니다. 기본적으로 개발업자와 건설업자들은 고급 건물에서 더 많은 수익을 기대할 수 있기 때문에 더 많이 건설하고 있는 것입니다.

그러나 인구 통계 변화도 고려해야 한다고 빌라는 지적했습니다. 인구 조사국 자료에 따르면, 연간 소득이 10만 달러 이상인 가구의 비율이 2000년에는 31.9%였으나 2022년에는 37.5%로 증가했다고 그는 덧붙였습니다.

 

 

Still, the bottom line for him is more supply across the board.

“Instead of ‘Drill, baby drill!’ maybe it ought to be ‘Build, baby, build!’ Either way, with America’s housing crisis entering the political arena lately, it remains to be seen whether any bipartisan support moves the needle going forward,” Villa wrote.

그럼에도 불구하고, 빌라가 강조하는 핵심은 전반적인 공급 확대입니다.

“‘드릴, 베이비, 드릴!’ 대신에 ‘빌드, 베이비, 빌드!’가 되어야 할지도 모릅니다. 어쨌든 최근 미국의 주택 위기가 정치적인 문제로 떠오르면서, 앞으로 초당적 지지가 실제로 변화를 이끌어낼 수 있을지는 지켜봐야 할 일입니다,”라고 빌라는 적었습니다.

 

In fact, both presidential candidates have weighed in on housing. Kamala Harris's plan incentivizes more construction and offers first-time homebuyers some assistance. Donald Trump has vowed to get rates lower, cut out red tape, and crack down on immigration.

 

실제로 두 명의 대선 후보 모두 주택 문제에 대해 의견을 표명한 바 있습니다. 카말라 해리스의 계획은 더 많은 주택 건설을 장려하고, 첫 주택 구매자에게 일부 지원을 제공하는 것을 목표로 합니다. 반면 도널드 트럼프는 금리를 낮추고, 규제를 철폐하며, 이민을 엄격히 단속하겠다고 약속했습니다.

 

In recent years, I’ve interviewed high-earners who are renting instead of buying; while they all had their own circumstances, affordability was a key reason. One couple, whom I spoke to last year, lived in a one-bedroom condominium in Los Angeles; they’ve since moved. But at the time, he and his partner earned more than $200,000 a year, and still the idea of owning a home in the city was laughable to him.

최근 몇 년 동안, 저는 집을 사는 대신 임대하는 고소득자들을 인터뷰해왔습니다. 그들은 각자의 상황이 있었지만, 공통적인 이유는 주택의 경제적 부담이었습니다. 작년에 제가 인터뷰한 한 커플은 로스앤젤레스의 1베드룸 콘도에 살고 있었습니다. 그들은 그 후 이사를 했지만, 당시 이 커플은 연봉이 20만 달러가 넘었음에도 불구하고 도시에서 집을 소유하는 것은 그에게 말도 안 되는 생각이었습니다.

 

On the other hand, the Wall Street Journal recently published a story with the headline: “These Millionaires Can Afford Their Dream Home. They’re Renting Instead.” Either way, people who make good money are renting and choosing apartments that fulfill their higher standards—builders can see that.

But for someone making the median income or less in Los Angeles, which is $79,701 a year, they need class B and C buildings. So it isn’t just about building homes, it’s about building all kinds of homes for everyone. That isn’t something the Fed can do, and Chair Jerome Powell even said that after delivering the rate cut.

 

반면, 월스트리트 저널은 최근 “이 백만장자들은 꿈의 집을 살 수 있지만, 대신 임대하고 있다”라는 제목의 기사를 게재했습니다. 어쨌든, 좋은 수입을 올리는 사람들조차 임대를 선택하며, 더 높은 기준을 충족하는 아파트를 찾고 있습니다. 건설업자들도 이를 인식하고 있습니다.

하지만 로스앤젤레스에서 연 소득 중간값인 79,701달러 이하를 버는 사람들에게는 클래스 B와 C 건물이 필요합니다. 그래서 단순히 주택을 짓는 것만이 아니라, 모든 사람을 위한 다양한 종류의 주택을 건설하는 것이 중요합니다. 이것은 연준이 할 수 있는 일이 아니며, 제롬 파월 의장도 금리 인하 발표 후 이를 언급했습니다.

 

“I mean, the real issue with housing is that we have had and are on track to continue to have not enough housing, and so it’s going to be challenging,” Powell said. “It’s hard…to zone lots that are in places where people want to live…All of the aspects of housing are more and more difficult, and you know, where are we going to get the supply? And this is not something that the Fed can really fix.”

Powell later added that it was up to the market and government to deal with. But clearly it isn’t easy to build homes, or else it would be happening, whether it be because of land-use regulation or local controls.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

America needs to ‘build, baby, build’ to fix the housing crisis, Moody’s says

 

 

“제 생각에 주택 문제의 진짜 핵심은 우리가 충분한 주택을 갖지 못했고, 앞으로도 계속 부족할 것으로 예상된다는 점입니다. 그래서 이는 매우 도전적인 과제입니다,”라고 파월 의장은 말했습니다. “사람들이 살고 싶어하는 곳에 부지를 지정하는 것은 어렵습니다... 주택과 관련된 모든 측면이 점점 더 어려워지고 있습니다. 공급을 어디서 확보할 수 있을지... 이는 연준이 해결할 수 있는 문제가 아닙니다.”

파월 의장은 이후 시장과 정부가 이 문제를 해결해야 한다고 덧붙였습니다. 하지만 주택을 짓는 일이 쉬운 것이 아니며, 그렇지 않았다면 이미 건설되고 있을 것입니다. 이는 토지 이용 규제나 지역 통제 등 여러 요인 때문일 수 있습니다.

이 이야기는 원래 Fortune.com에 게재되었습니다.