마이크론-번스타인 컨콜(2020.11.17)

2020.11.17

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다음은 마이크론이 번스타인이 개최한 컨콜에서 질의 응답한 내용인데 요약하면

내년에는 5G 스마트폰 판매 증가등으로 디램 수요가 급증하고 올해대비 20% 수요가 증가할 것으로

예상되는데 디램 공급은 그에 못미칠 것으로 전망.

마이크론의 2020년 장비 투자는 전년대비 40% 감소했다고 말함.

 

분석: 하이닉스 연도별 캐펙스:10.03조원(2017)-->17조원(2018)-->

12.7조원(2019)-->6.8조원(2020년3분기말 현재)

 

마이크론은 올해 5G 스마트폰이 2억대정도 팔리는데 내년에는 2배이상 팔릴 것으로 예상.

(분석: 시장에서는 5억대 팔릴 것으로 예상).

 

4G 스마트폰에서는 디램이 3기가에서 4기가 정도 장착되는데 5G 스마트폰에서는 6GB 장착되고

고가 스마트폰에서는 8GB-12GB 장착되고 심지어는 16GB장착되는 스마트폰도 있다.

 

또 낸드부문에서도 저장 용량이 증가하고 있다. 

 

이는 향후 수년간 메모리 산업에 순풍으로 작용할 것이다,

 

David Zinsner

Yes. So on a unit per - I’ll hit the unit perspective before I talk about 5G content. On the end units for mobile phones, we feel pretty good about next year. We expect growth to probably be double-digit growth year-over-year in the mobile space at the end unit level. Of course, we should do much better than that because of the first question you asked, which was the content. If you look at a 4G phone, it was running somewhere in the 3 to 4 gigs of DRAM.

As we migrate to 5G, if you want or if a mobile customer wants a 5G experience for their end customer, our best read on that is it takes at least 6 gigs of DRAM. We've seen SKUs at 8. We've seen them at 12. We've even seen one at 16.

 

So this is a pretty content-rich story from a DRAM perspective in mobile as we transition to 5G. 5G has done, I think, despite COVID, much, much better than I think I had ever anticipated. I mean, I think early on, people were -- once COVID hit, were suggesting that maybe 5G handset units would be somewhere like 150 million, I think, was one of the numbers I heard. I think it's going to be well north of 200 million for calendar '20.

 

It's going to probably be more than double that in calendar '21.

And given our content increase is there, that's going to be a great story.

 

And another thing we've heard sometimes is that, hey, well, with the faster download speeds, is that actually a headwind on the NAND front, but we just haven't seen that. We've seen content increases on the NAND side as well with 5G. And I think it makes sense. You can download faster. And you're going to download things faster and more. And then you're going to want to store those things, particularly in periods of time where you lose connectivity.

And you have a lot of whatever you downloaded on your device.

 

And so if anything, we think that the content increases on the NAND front in mobile as well. So this should be a huge, a huge tailwind for us next year and for multiple years as 5G becomes a bigger and bigger percentage of the overall mobile units.