2021년4분기 PC 디램 계약가 0-5%하락할 것

분석: 아래 기사는 디램 가격 하락 이유 2가지를 예시했다.

하나는 PC제조사들이 적정 재고 이상을 가지고 있고, 코로나 사태로 제한했던

통제가 풀리면서 다시 회사로 출근하므로 4분기에는 노트북 수요가 감소할 것이라 분석했다.

둘은  비트코인같은 암호화폐 가격 하락으로 그래픽 디램 수요도 감소하면서 가격 하락을 예상했다.

 

하지만 현실은 코로나 백신 2차접종을 마친 사람도 돌파 감염되는 현실에 다시 통제를 시작하였고,

그동안 하락했던 암호화폐 가격도 다시 폭등하기 시작했다.

 

즉 트렌드포스가 분석한 2가지 이유 자체가 사실이 아닌 것으로 나타나고 있다.

 

 

2021.08.10

DRAMeXchange - 【Market View】Contract Prices of PC DRAM Expected to Decline by 0-5% in 4Q21 as Spot Prices of DRAM Modules Continue to Weaken, Says TrendForce

 

Contract Prices of PC DRAM Expected to Decline by 0-5% in 4Q21 as Spot Prices of DRAM Modules Continue to Weaken, Says TrendForce

2021년4분기 PC디램 공급 가격은 현물가격이 지속적으로 하락함에 따라 0-5%정도 하락할 것으로 트렌드포스는

예상했다.

 

Now that most negotiations over contract prices of PC DRAM for 3Q21 have concluded, DRAM suppliers’ low inventories and the arrival of the peak season for DRAM procurement have resulted in a 3-8% QoQ increase in PC DRAM contract prices for 3Q21, although this is a relatively muted growth compared to the 25% increase experienced in 2Q21, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations.

시장 조사 기관트렌드포스의 최근 조사에 의하면, 3분기 PC디램 계약 가격은 디램 공급업체의 낮은 재고와

디램 호황기에 따라서 3-8% 인상되었으나 지난 2분기 25% 인상에 비하면 상대적으로 낮은 인상이었다.

 

However, demand for PC DRAM in the spot market began to show signs of bearish movement in early July ahead of time, as DRAM suppliers continued to lower prices in order to adjust their DRAM inventories.

Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage.

(분기별로 체결되는) 계약 가격 시장에서는 PC  OEM 회사들은 상대적으로 많은 재고(8-10주 정도보유)를 가지고있는데, 이들은 향후 디램 공급 부족을 예상하여 미리 재고를 많이 쌓아 놓았다.(적정 재고는 3-4주정도)

 

Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM,

but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.

TrendForce therefore forecasts a 0-5% QoQ decline in PC DRAM contract prices for 4Q21.

PC제조사들의 많은 디램 재고는 가격 상승에 압박을 가할뿐 아니라, 유럽과 미국의 코로나로 인한 통제를

점차적으로 해제함에 따라 노트북 컴퓨터에 대한 전반적인 수요를 낮추고 있다.

그래서 트렌드포스는 4분기 디램 계약 가격이 3분기대비 0-5%정도 하락할 것으로 예상한다.

 

Regarding spot prices of DRAM modules, most major module suppliers have also started to lower prices in an attempt at inventory reduction, leading to a persistent downward trend for spot prices of PC DRAM modules throughout August.

디램 모듈 현물가격을 보면, 대부분 모듈 공급사들이 그들의 재고를 줄이기위해 더 낮은 가격을 제시하기 시작했고,

이는 지속적인 디램 모듈 가격 하락시키고 있다.

 

According to TrendForce’s findings, this decline in spot prices of mainstream PC DRAM modules,

which began on May 20th, accumulated to 32% as of August 3.

Furthermore, spot prices of PC DRAM modules have, for the first time in 2021, now fallen below contract prices for 3Q21 by almost as much as 20% and are unlikely to experience a price hike in the short run.

주요 PC 디램 모듈 가격의 하락은  5월20일부터 시작해 8월3일까지 32% 하락했다.

게다가 2021년 처음으로 디램 모듈 가격이 2021년3분기 계약가 이하로 20%가까이 하락했는데,

이는 단기간에는 회복될 것같지 않다.

 

Since PC OEMs still keep a high inventory of PC DRAM, their upcoming procurement activities for PC DRAM will likely remain sluggish

PC제조사들도 PC 디램 재고가 많은데, 이들의 pC 디램 구매가 적극적이지 않을 것같다.

 

An overview of the PC DRAM market throughout 2021 shows that, as the COVID-19 pandemic reached its peak in 2Q21, most purchasers aggressively stocked up on various components, including memory solutions, in order to avoid possible shortages, and these stock-up activities were particularly bullish in the PC market.

2021년 디램 시장을 살펴보면,  2021년2분기에 코로나 사태가 최고조로 확산되었기 때문에 대부분 구매자들이

향후 발생할 공급 부족에 대비해 메모리 반도체를 포함한 갖가지 부품을 적극적으로 구매하여 재고를 축적하였다.

이런 행동은 특히 PC 시장에서 적극적이었다.

 

As a result, PC DRAM prices underwent a massive 25% increase in April, and demand bits also saw a surge during the quarter.

이런 결과로 PC 디램 계약 가격은 4월에 전월대비 25% 상승하였고 비트 수요도 증가하였다.

 

Moving into 3Q21, buyers and sellers in the PC DRAM and server DRAM markets found it difficult to reach an agreement while negotiating over contract prices throughout the end of July.

3분기들어서면서 PC 디램과 서버 디램 시장에서 판매자와 구매자 모두 7월말까지 계약 가겨 협의에

도달하는게 어렵다고 느꼈다.

 

As such, the increase in PC DRAM prices for 3Q21, along with the increase in PC DRAM sales bits, is significantly weaker compared to 2Q21. In addition, TrendForce indicated at the end of June that most PC OEMs were carrying about 8 to 10 weeks’ worth of PC DRAM inventory, with some even surpassing 10 weeks.

그래서 3분기에 PC디램 가격 상승률은 PC디램 출하량 증가와 같이  2분기에 비해 매우 약해졌다.

트렌드포스는 6월말 대부분 PC제조사들의 디램 재고 수준이 8주에서 10주정도이고, 일부는 10주가 넘는다고

분석했다. 

 

Their inventories have not undergone significant improvements as of early August. As these PC OEMs gradually take delivery of DRAM they procured for 3Q21, some of them now carry inventories exceeding 12 weeks’ supply. TrendForce therefore believes that the persistently growing inventories of PC OEMs will likely result in a further weakening of PC DRAM contract prices in 4Q21.

이러한 과잉 재고는 8월초까지 나아지지 않았다. PC제조사들은 3분기용 디램을 인수하기 시작하였기 때문에

그들중 일부는 현재 재고 수준이 12주를 넘어섰다.

그래서 트렌드포스는 재고가 점점 증가하므로 Pc 디램 계약가격이 4분기에는 약할 것으로 믿는다.

 

Looking ahead to 4Q21, TrendForce expects PC shipment, particularly Chromebook shipment, to remain in a downward trajectory following increased vaccinations in Europe and the US. The latest data show that branded Chromebook shipment peaked in 2Q21 and subsequently underwent monthly declines following this peak.

 

Furthermore, the overall demand for notebook computers has started waning as the general public resumes its day to day activities, such as a return to offices and schools, in light of the gradual lifting of COVID-19 restrictions in Europe and the US. Hence, TrendForce believes that, despite the cyclical upturn of the notebook market in 4Q21,

as well as the commercial segment’s replacement demand, ODMs will likely continue to cut back on notebook production on a quarterly basis, in turn decreasing the overall demand for PC DRAM.

 

Prices of both consumer DRAM and graphics DRAM are expected to enter into a downturn in 4Q21 owing to weak supply and demand

컨슈머 디램과 그래픽 디램 가격도 4분기에는 하락할 것으로 예상.

 

In sum, the sufficiency ratio of PC DRAM increased from -1.13% in 3Q21 to 0.28% in 4Q21.

Hence, TrendForce expects contract prices of PC DRAM to take a downward turn in 4Q21, while prices of DDR4 consumer DRAM, which are highly correlated with PC DRAM prices, will likely undergo a similar decline.

PC 디램의 수요 충족률(공급 나누기 수요)은 마이너스 1.13%(공급 부족)에서 2021년4분기에는

플러스 0.28%(고급 과잉)로 전환될 것이다.

 

Likewise, contract prices of graphics DRAM are expected experience a looming decline as well, since the sudden cryptocurrency downturn resulted in a corresponding plummet in cryptocurrency mining demand and, by extension, spot prices of graphics DRAM, which is used in cryptocurrency mining equipment.

암호화폐 가격도 갑작스런 암호화폐 수요의 급락으로  하락하였고, 채굴 장비에 사용되는 그래픽 디래 혀눌 가격도 하락하였기 때문에 그래픽 디램 계약 가격도 하락할 것으로 예상된다.

(분석: 8월10일 현재 비트코인 가격은 4만6천잘러 돌파/ 박스권 돌파--->암호화폐 하락했다가 다시 상승 중이므로

이 기사의 분석은 틀렸다)

 

Regarding server DRAM, contract prices are expected to mostly hold flat, without noticeable hints of price hikes, in 4Q21. This trend can be attributed to the server industry’s migration to Intel’s new Ice Lake platform, which has been steadily rising in terms of penetration rate, as well as the fact that demand for servers has yet to weaken.

 

However, MoM declines in server DRAM contract prices may potentially take place in November and December. Likewise, mobile DRAM prices are expected to remain relatively unchanged in 4Q21 compared to the previous quarter. The profitability and ASP/Gb of this product category are relatively lower compared to other DRAM products, such as PC DRAM and server DRAM, and it did not experience as much of an uptrend during the prior quarters. Hence, while PC DRAM prices are expected to decline in 4Q21, mobile DRAM prices will remain sustainable, without undergoing a similar decline.