'21년 4분기 낸드 매출 2.1% 감소

2022.02.22

 

2021년4분기 글로벌 낸드 매출은 전분기대비 2.1% 감소한 148.81억달러,

연간 매출은 전년비 21.1% 증가한  686억달러 달성.

 

DRAMeXchange - 【Market View】Total NAND Flash Revenue Drops 2.1% QoQ in 4Q21 Due to Slowing Demand and Falling Prices, Says TrendForce

 

2021년4분기 글로벌 낸드 매출은 수요 감소와 가격 하락으로 전분기대비 2.1% 감소.

 

Total NAND Flash Revenue Drops 2.1% QoQ in 4Q21 Due to Slowing Demand and Falling Prices, Says TrendForce

 

In 4Q21, NAND Flash bit shipments grew by only 3.3% QoQ, a significant decrease from the nearly 10% in 3Q21, according to TrendForce’s investigations.

4분기 낸드 출하량은 3분기 10% 증가보다는 적은 3.3% 증가에 그쳤다.

 

ASP fell by nearly 5% and the overall industry posted revenue of US$18.5 billion, a QoQ decrease of 2.1%.

This was primarily due to a decline in the purchase demand of various products and a market shift to oversupply causing a drop in contract prices.

In 4Q21, with the exception of enterprise SSD, the supply of which was limited by insufficient upstream components, the prices of other NAND Flash products such as eMMC, UFS, and client SSD, all fell.

 

평균 판매 가격은 약 5% 하락하였고, 전체 매출은 2.1% 감소한 185억달러였다.

이는 전적으로 제품 구매 수요 감소와 시장이 공급 과잉되어 계약 가격이 하락했기  때문이다.

기업용 SSD 가격은 불충분한 부품 공그배문에 가격 하락에서 예외였다.

 eMMC, UFS와 소비자용 SSD등 그밖의 모든 낸드 제품 가격은 하락하였다.

 

TrendForce’s summary of NAND Flash market sales performance in 2021 is as follows:

although there have been signs of weakening since 2H21, thanks to remote services and cloud demand driven by the pandemic, revenue performance still grew significantly compared to 2020.

Revenue reached US$68.6 billion, up 21.1% YoY, the second-biggest increase since 2018.

 

2021년 연간 매출은  전년비 21.1% 증가한  686억달러 달성.

 

NAND Flash revenue fell for most manufactures in 4Q21 due to PC OEM destocking

4분기 낸드 매출은 PC OEM회사의 기존 재고 사용 전략으로 감소했다.

 

There were some changes to the top three NAND Flash revenue rankings in 4Q21 compared 3Q21, Samsung and Kioxia remained in the top two while third place was replaced by Western Digital (WDC).

 

4분기 낸드 매출 순위에서 1위와 2위는 삼성과 키오시아가 차지하면서 변동이 없었으나 3위는 SK하이닉스 대신에

WDC가 차지했다.

(분석: 실제로는 SK하이닉스의 100% 자회사가 된 솔리다임의 점유율 5.4%를 합하면  SK하이닉스의 점유율은

19.5%에 달해 키옥시아를 제치고 점유율 2위가 된다)

 

Although there was still demand coming from data centers, as PC OEMs continued to deplete client SSD inventories and demand from China's smartphone market weakened, stocking momentum was affected by component mismatch issues, resulting in a decline of approximately 5% in Samsung Electronics' bit shipments in 4Q21.

 

데이터센터로 부터의 수요가 발생하고 있지만, PC OEM회사들은 SSD재고를 소진하고 있고,

중국 스마트폰 제조사들의 수요가 약했기 때문에 재고 축적 수요는 부품 수급 불균형으로 영향을 받아,

삼성전자의 출하량은 5%가까이 감소했다.

 

 

After the market shifted to oversupply, ASP also fell by approximately 5%, leading to Samsung Electronics posting 4Q21 revenue of US$6.110 billion, a QoQ decrease of 6.1%.

 

시장이 공급과잉이 되면서 평균 판매 가격은 5% 가까이 하락하면서 삼성전자의 매출은 전분기대비 6.1% 하락한

61.1억달러에 달했다.

 

Second ranked Kioxia continued seeing strong demand from data center clients in 4Q21 but this was offset by inventory adjustment and reduced purchasing on the part of PC OEMs. Bit shipments declined slightly by 1% and ASP remained flat even in the face of weakening market demand, which was better performance than that of other suppliers in the same period. Revenue in 4Q21 reached US$3.543 billion, a QoQ decrease of 2.6%.

 

WDC was another company that benefited from continued strong stocking demand from major US smartphone clients for new 5G flagship phones which offset the impact of weak client and enterprise SSD sales, for bit shipment growth of 13%. However, as the proportion of consumer goods grew, ASP declined by 6%. WDC’s NAND Flash division posted 4Q21 revenue of US$2.62 billion, a QoQ increase of 5.2%.

 

Benefiting from continued stocking from data center clients and US-based smartphone brands, SK hynix's bit shipment growth remained above 10%, in line with original forecasts.

However, ASP was affected by weaker mobile phone shipments in China and inventory adjustment at PC OEMs. Pricing fell by nearly 10% which offset overall growth momentum.

Revenue posted by SK hynix's NAND Flash division in 4Q21 increased by 2.8% to US$2.615 billion.

 

하이닉스는 데이터센터 고객과 미국 스마트폰 회사의 재고 쌓기로 원래 예상대로 출하량이 10%이상 증가했다.

그러나 판매 가격은 중국 스마트폰 회사의 약한 출하량과  PC회사들의 재고 조정으로 하락하였다.

하이닉스의 4분기 낸드 매출은 전분기 대비 2.8% 증가한 26.15억달러에 달했다.

 

Micron was similarly affected by inventory adjustments undertaken on the part of PC OEMs and data center clients.  Although Micron's 176-layer products continue to be adopted, shipments in 4Q21 were flat compared to 3Q21 and ASP fell approximately 5% as the growth rate of supply outpaced demand, leading to a decline of 4.7% in Micron's 4Q21 NAND Flash revenue to US$1.878 billion.

Solidigm's 4Q21 production capacity was still being affected by the impact of supply chains (such as PMIC supply) on enterprise SSD, resulting in a continued decline in bit shipments of nearly 5% in 4Q21. At the same time, while orders for laptops are still strong, Solidigm actively increased bits shipments of PC QLC SSDs in order to reduce production capacity, causing a drop in ASP and a 4Q21 NAND Flash revenue performance of only US$996 million, a 9.9% decline.

Looking forward to 1Q22, TrendForce states that with the advent of the demand off-season, demand for major applications will show a seasonal decline, exacerbating the phenomenon of oversupply and driving the contract price of products to fall further. Falling prices and shrinking volume is expected to further reduce the revenue level of the NAND Flash industry. Referencing information released by TrendForce on Feb. 10, it is worth noting that market expectant psychological factors in 2Q22 generated from the previous Kioxia and WDC raw material pollution incidents will change the supply and demand situation after February and certain products with additional orders and non-quarterly contract prices will immediately reflect a pricing increase. This will help reduce the decline in the output value of NAND Flash in 1Q22.