2021년4분기 회사별 디램 점유율

2022.02.18

회사별 디램 점유율: 삼성 42.3, 하이닉스 29.7%. 마이크론 22.3%, 난야 3.1%

 

DRAMeXchange - 【Market View】Overall DRAM Output Decreased Nearly 6% QoQ in 4Q21 Due to Decline in Shipments and Pricing, Says TrendForce

 

Overall DRAM Output Decreased Nearly 6% QoQ in 4Q21 Due to Decline in Shipments and Pricing, Says TrendForce

2021년4분기 디램 매출은 출하와 가격 하락으로 전분기대비 약6% 감소하였다.

 

The pandemic has impeded the supply of many end-user devices such as smartphones, servers, PCs,

and niche consumer electronics components, indirectly leading to a decline in a willingness on the procurement-end to stock relatively abundant memory chips, according to TrendForce research.

 

트렌드포스 조사에 따르면 팬데믹은 스마트폰이나 서버, PC와 틈새 전자제품등과 같은 기기들의 공급을 방해하였다.

이는 상대적으로 풍부한 메모리 반도체를 확보하려는 의지를 저하시켰다.

 

This is most obvious in the stance of PC OEMs holding more than 10 weeks or more of DRAM inventory.

Therefore, most DRAM fabs experienced a drop in shipments in the fourth quarter of 2021

and declining purchasing momentum has also led to a downward trend in DRAM price quotations.

 

이는 PC OEM회사들이 10주 이상의디램 재고를 보유하고 있는 것이 명백하다.

그러므로 모든 디램 제조사들은 2021년 4분기 출하량 감소를 겪었다.

감소하는 디램 구매 의욕은 가격 하락으로 이어졌다.

 

Total 4Q21 DRAM output value decreased by 5.8% QoQ, reaching US$25.03 billion,

with only a few suppliers such as SK hynix bucking this trend.

 

2021년4분기 디램 매출은 전분기대비 5.8% 감소한 250.3억달러에 달했고,

SK하이닉스만 이런 하락 추세를 피했다.

 

Looking forward to 1Q22, although material shortages for some components can be alleviated,

the first quarter is already an off season for demand and buyers’ inventories are still flush.

 

2022년1분기는 반도체 소재의 부족 완화에도 불구하고,

이미 계절적으로 비수기이고 수요자의 재고도 풍부한  수준이다.

 

Thus, the purchasing-side will largely concentrate on destocking, with overall purchasing momentum remaining sluggish. Thus, DRAM pricing in the first quarter of this year is expected to face greater pressure than in the fourth quarter of last year and overall DRAM output value may fall further.

 

구매자측 에서는 전반적인 구매 모멘텀이 약하기 때문에 재고 감소에 크게 집중할 것이다.

그래서 1분기 디램 가격은 4분기보다 더 큰 하락 압력을 받을 것이고, 디램  매출은 더 감소할 것이다.

 

4Q21 DRAM price drop causes downturn in manufacturer profit levels

 

In terms of revenue performance, price quotations from the three major DRAM manufacturers all declined with slightly differing shipments trends. Shipments from both Samsung and Micron fell due to poor end-user demand, with revenue down 9% and 8%, respectively.

 

In terms of market share, Samsung dropped slightly to 42.3% while still ranking first, SK hynix climbed to nearly 30%, ranking second, and Micron dropped slightly to 22.3%. 

 

Pricing gaps between these three DRAM manufacturers in 1Q22 is expected to be narrow, but since SK hynix had a relatively high base period of shipment in the 4Q21, the company expects a decline in its shipments slightly higher than the industry average which will reduce its 1Q22 market share slightly.

 

In terms of profit performance, the operating profit margins of Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron (September-November financial reporting) fell to 50%, 45%, and 41%, respectively, due to the cost optimization resulting from an increase in the proportion of advanced processes not being  enough to make up for the decline in price quotations.

 

TrendForce believes that the downturn trend in profit margins is likely to intensify in 1Q22 and DRAM suppliers will face sharper profit decline. Manufacturers can only increase the proportion of advanced processes and optimize their product portfolio to reduce the impact brought on by price pressure. 

 

 

Specialty DRAM market conditions also weak in 4Q21, with Taiwanese manufacturer revenue falling as well

 

As the demand for specialty DRAM end-user applications such as TVs and consumer electronics products dropped significantly in 4Q21, coupled with the impact of material shortages in the supply chain, client demand for DRAM shipments also cooled substantially. The 4Q21 specialty DRAM price decline was also comparable to that of mainstream products, in turn impacting the revenue performance of Taiwanese manufacturers focused mainly on the consumer market. From the perspective of Nanya Tech, the combination of falling volume and price reduced its revenue in 4Q21 by approximately 10%, while its operating profit rate fell to 37.5% due to the decline in price quotations. Winbond's small-capacity (1/2Gb) market was also affected by components mismatch issues, but the impact was relatively small and its 4Q21 revenue fell slightly by close to 4%. PSMC’s (revenue calculation is primarily based on its self-produced standard DRAM products and does not include its DRAM foundry business) revenue fell slightly by approximately 1%. If its foundry revenue is added, then its revenue grew by 6%, reversing a downward trend. This demonstrates that locking-in long-term contracts early is a good strategy.

Faced with reversal in the DRAM market, it is TrendForce’s understanding that the solutions of the three major Taiwanese manufacturers are as follows: Nanya Tech can allocate 20nm production capacity to produce DDR3 (better gross profit) when DDR4 market conditions are poor and invest more resources in the research and development of new 1X nm processes.  If yield improves rapidly, this will provide some contribution before the completion of its new factory in 2024. In addition to continuing to focus on niche small-capacity products, Winbond is also strengthening research and development of 25 nm and next-generation 20 nm products, expected to be introduced directly when its Kaohsiung Lujhu factory starts mass production. As for PSMC, by locking clients into long-term contracts, it can plan 2022 production in advance and continue to maximize its greatest advantages. In accordance with market conditions and gross profit levels, it will allocate production capacity between logic IC and memory products.