중요-클라우드 컴퓨팅이 AMD 주가를 최고가로 만들 것

2022.03.08

 

2022년3월8일 AMD의 주가는 105.53달러, 시가총액은 1717.35억달러이다.

 

 

AMD Stock: Cloud Computing Will Bring It To New Heights (NASDAQ:AMD) | Seeking Alpha

클라우드 컴퓨팅이 AMD 주가를 최고가로 만들 것이다.

 

Summary

• AMD is gaining ground with a 10.7% market share in the global server CPU market as of Q4'21 while reporting blockbuster revenues of $4.1B for that particular segment in FY2021.
• AMD는 2021년4분기 현재  글로벌 서버 CPU 시장에서 연매출 41억달러로 10.7%의 점유율을 차지했다.
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• AMD's products power global cloud providers such as Amazon Web Services, Inc., Google Cloud, Microsoft, Alibaba, and IBM.
• AMD의 서버 CPU는 아마존, 구글, 마이크로소프트, 알리바바와 IBM등에 공급된다.
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• A new generation of AMD EPYC processors, Genoa and Bergamo, designed specifically for cloud computing could threaten INTC's current server and data center dominance.
• AMD의 에픽 프로세서, 제노아와 베르가모는 특별히 클라우드 컴퓨팅을 위해 설계되었는데,
• 이들이 현재 서버와 데이터센터를 지배하고있는 인텔을 위협할 수있다.
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• Moving forward, we expect robust demand for AMD's new cloud-optimized processors as the global data center market grows to $519B by 2025, at a CAGR of 21%.
• 더 나아가, AMD의 클라우드에 최적화된 서버 CPU의 수요는 매우 강할 것으로 예상된다.
• 글로벌 데이터센터 시장은 2025년까지 연율 21%씩 성장하여 5190억달러에 달할것으로 예상된다.
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• As a result of the $12B share repurchase program, AMD is also expected to report improved EPS moving forward, which will counter share dilution from the Xilinx acquisition.
• AMD의 120억달러 상당의 자사주 매입으로, 자일링스 합병으로 인한 주식 증가를 희석시키며,
• 주당순이익을 증가시킬 것이다.
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Investment Thesis

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is one of the rising stars in the semiconductor market, given how its revenues have jumped 68.3% YoY in FY2021 despite the global supply chain issues.

AMD는 회계년도 2021년 매출이 공급망 문제에도 불구하고 전년대비 68.3% 증가한 떠오르는 스타 주식중 하나이다.

 

Its stellar performance also shows the superiority of its products in the face of intense competition from other producers, such as Intel Corporation (INTC) and NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA). Its cloud-based products could potentially undermine INTC's current server and data center dominance, given the upcoming launch of AMD's 4th Generation EPYC cloud-optimized processors, Genoa and Bergamo.

In this article, we shall focus on AMD's data center/cloud computing-related products.

 

AMD의 뛰어난 실적은 인텔과 엔비디아에 비해 제품의 우수성에 있다.

클라우드에 최적화된 4세대 에픽프로세서인 제노아와 베르가모가 인텔을 대신할 수있다.

이 글에서 우리는 AMD의 데이터센터와 클라우드 컴퓨팅 관련 제품에만 집중할 것이다.

Cloud (And Gaming) Are The Future Of Semiconductor Chips

클라우드와 게이밍은 반도체 칩의 미래다.

 

INTC has been the undisputed pioneer in the development of semiconductor chips for Data Center applications.

In the past five years, the company grew its revenues at a CAGR of 8.43%, from $17.23B in FY2016 to $25.82B in FY2021, for its Data Center Group segment.

인텔은 데이터센터 부문의 반도체 발전의 두말할 필요없는 개척자였다.

지난 5년간, 인텔의 데이터센터 부문 매출은 2016년 172.3억달러에서 2021년 258.2억달러까지

연율 8.43%로 성장하였다.

 

However, we have noticed an apparent decline in INTC's revenue growth in FY2021, where its Data Center Group segment reported a -1% YoY decline from $26.1B in FY2020 to $25.82B in FY2021.

하지만 인텔의 2021년 매출 성장은 하락했고, 데이터센터 매출은 전년대비 1%감소한 258.2억달러로 하락했다.

 

In the meantime, its newer and younger competitors, such as AMD and NVDA, are gaining critical market shares in the segment.

반면에 인텔의 새로운 경쟁자인 AMD와 NVDA가  데이터센터 부문에서 점유율을 높여가고 있다.

 

For example, in its recent earnings call, AMD reported approximately $4.1B for its overall data center revenue,

which is mostly attributed to its EPYC server processors and Instinct data center GPUs.

These products contributed "a mid-20 percentage of its total revenue in FY2021," representing an estimated YoY growth of 25%.

예를들면 최근 AMD 실적 발표에서 전체적 데이터센터 매출이 41억달러에 달했다.

에픽 서버 프로세서와 데이터센터용 GPU는 2021년 매출 성장율 25%에 공헌하면서 전체 매출의 20% 중반대

점유유을 차지했다.

 

During FQ4'21, EPYC sales also more than doubled YoY, due to cloud providers increasing capacity and introducing new instances.

2021년4분기 에픽 프로세서 매출은 클라우드업체들의  증설과 신규 사용례를 소개하면서 전년대비 2배로 증가하였다.

 

The company's revenue from data center GPUs also doubled in FQ4'21, due to the robust demand for AMD's Instinct MI200 released in November 2021. On the other hand, NVDA's data center-related sales also reported an excellent 58.4% YoY growth from $6.6B in FY2021 to $10.6B in FY2022 (the calendar year 2021).

 

AMD의 데이터센터용 GPU 매출도 2021년4분기 2배로 증가하였다.

한편 엔비디아의 데이터센터 관련 매출도 회계년도 2021년 66억달러에서 2022년 106억달러로 58.4% 증가하였다.

 

Its ambition in powering global cloud computing was hinted at when AMD acquired Xilinx in 2020. AMD gained a stronger position in cloud computing through Xilinx's innovative processing technological platforms.

 

By Q4'21, AMD's chips are powering high-profile major cloud providers, such as Amazon Web Services, Inc. (AMZN), Google Cloud (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Alibaba (BABA), and IBM (IBM). Atos, Dell (NYSE:DELL), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (NYSE:HPE), and Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) (OTCPK:LNVGF) will also launch servers with AMD's Instinct MI200 GPUs by March 2022.

 

 Cockroach Labs' research found that AMD-powered cloud instances outperform Intel versions in 16-core performance tests, which may be the exact reason why many prefer AMD's products.

 

According to Mercury Research, AMD had managed to capture 10.7% of the data center market, in terms of quarterly shipments as of Q4'21. It is a massive YoY improvement by 3.6 percentage points from Q4'20 at 7.1% of market share.

 

머큐리 리서치에 의하면 AMD의 대이터센터 점유율은  2020년4분기 7.1%에서 2022년4분기 10.7%로

큰폭으로 증가하였다. 

 

아래 그래프는 인텔과 AMD의 분기별 서버,데스크탑과 모바일CPU 출하량 점유율.

 

INTC and AMD CPU Share By Quarterly Shipments

Mercury Research

 

 

In addition, AMD is also collaborating with Meta (FB) on its "cloud-scale, single-socket server, based on AMD EPYC Milan-X CPUs" for the latter's “North Dome” systems, effectively replacing a part initially designed for INTC's Xeon D CPUs.

 

 Meta has also been on a spending spree while building its Metaverse infrastructure through multiple data centers nationwide. The company spent $19B in 2021, while guiding a further investment in the range of $29B to $34B in data center-related CAPEX in 2022. As a result, it is evident that the popularity of AMD's products has partly contributed to the gradual erosion of INTC's market dominance over time.

 

메타는 데이터센터 관련 시설투자에 2021년 190억달러를 사용했으나 2022년에는 290억-340억달러 수준을

투자할 것으로 예상한다.

 

On the other hand, the cloud gaming sector is experiencing a massive boom, with Tencent's (OTCPK:TCEHY) recent launch of a custom graphics card, Xinghai Wisdom Wood Series GA01. It is based on a custom-designed AMD graphics processing unit (GPU) Radeon PRO V620 card with 32GB of GDDR6 memory. Tencent reported that the graphic card performed 120% faster than other graphics cards while delivering superior rendering, encoding/decoding, and image processing.

 

By offering cloud-centric GPUs, AMD also stands to chip away NVDA's current dominance in the gaming sector. NVDA reported $12.4B of revenues for its gaming-based products in FY2022, increasing 61% YoY. As a result, we expect intense competition amongst the two as AMC enhances its GPU offerings moving forward.

 

The global semiconductor market is projected to grow from $452B in 2021 to $803.B in 2028 at a CAGR of 8.6%, due to durable demand from the gaming, automotive, PC, smartphones, etc. In 2021 alone, the sales for x86 units is at 471M units for a total sum of $74B, representing an increase of 10.7% YoY. Assuming a similar growth trajectory to the market predictions of 8.6%, we may expect to see sustained annual sales of x86 for up to 650M units, with total revenue of up to $102B by 2025.

 

With an average market share of over 23% in FY2021 (and definitely increasing by 2025), AMD would easily ship over 150M units of x86 by then. Therefore, we expect that AMD will continue to report robust revenues and gain in market share over Intel every quarter, with no sign that it will slow down, at least through 2024.

AMD's Push Into The Next Generation Data Server Products

AMD

 

AMD will be launching its cloud-based 4th Generation EPYC processors, Genoa with up to 96 Zen 4 cores in 2022 and Bergamo with up to 128 Zen 4c cores in 2023. Through these 2 chips, AMD is transitioning from an etching process that uses 7 nanometers to one that uses 5 nanometers from Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM). Since both are based on Zen 4 core (Bergamo - Zen 4c core), users will experience a significant improvement in Instructions Per Clock (IPC) by approximately 29% compared to the older Zen 3 core.

 

In addition, AMD expects Genoa to be "the world's highest performance processor for general-purpose computing... for a broad range of data center workloads from enterprise to HPC." The company also created a differentiated cloud-native chip for data centers through Bergamo. Though functionally similar, the 128 Zen 4c core chip will be able to deliver twice the transistor density and power efficiency, while increasing switching performance by 25% through a similar ISO frequency. It is likely that Bergamo will also expand both ways in the power window beyond the usual 65-280W to accommodate specific cloud use cases. As an added benefit, both chips will be socket compatible, which is an important feature to hyperscalers and cloud builders alike. It would definitely ease the future upgrade to Bergamo, given its improved performance and cloud-oriented design. This feature alone ensures the durability of AMD's future sales and product stickiness moving forward.

In addition, it is quite clear that the market will experience a massive boom in the next few years, given the enormous demand for server-related products from multiple global cloud providers and enterprises as discussed above. The data center market predicted growth from $230B to $519B by 2025, at a CAGR of 21%. Based on our aggressive estimates, we may see AMD's data center-related market share to rise from 10.7% in 2021 to 20% in 2025, with further growth in the x86 market from 25.6% in 2021 to over 35% by 2025. However, we also expect to see its growth rate decelerate over time, given the easing of the global supply chain issues from 2024 onwards.

AMD Reported Record-Breaking Revenues In FY2021

AMD Revenue and Gross Margin

S&P Capital IQ

In the past three years, AMD recorded massive revenue growth at a CAGR of 56.25%. In FY2021, the company reported revenues of $16.43B, representing excellent increases of 68.3% YoY and 244% from FY2019 levels. In addition, the company has been gradually improving its gross margins from 42.6% in FY2019 to 48.2% in FY2021, with it reaching an impressive 50.3% in FQ4'21. These are mostly attributed to the robust sales for its high-margin products such as server GPUs and CPUs, due to a growing number of cloud and enterprise customers adopting AMD EPYC processors. This consecutively doubled AMD's YoY cloud revenue in FY2021.

In addition, AMD reported $4.83B of revenues and $0.8 of EPS in FQ4'21, beating consensus estimates of $4.52B and $0.76, respectively. It is also important to note that the company has been beating consensus estimates for the past seven quarters. With its total of $12B share repurchase program, we expect the company to improve its EPS moving forward, with $3B already exercised. The share buyback will also counter some of the share dilutions from the Xilinx acquisition.

So, Is AMD Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AMD Projected Revenue

S&P Capital IQ

 

For FQ1'22, AMD guided revenues of approximately $5B and gross margins of 50.5%, representing a remarkable increase of 3.5% QoQ and 44.9% YoY. For FY2022, consensus estimates that the company will report revenues of $25.37B, representing an impressive 54.4% YoY growth. However, AMD had guided slightly lower revenues of $21.5B at 31% YoY growth, with gross margins at 51%.

 

2022년1분기   AMD의 매출은 50억달러, 매출총이익률은 50.5%로 예상된다.

이는 전분기대비 3.5%, 전년 동기대비 44.9% 증가하는 것이다.

2022년 전체 매출은 253.7억달러로 전년비 54.4% 증가할 것으로 예상된다.

 

Nonetheless, over the next four years, AMD is expected to report somewhat choppy revenue growth at a CAGR of 15.25%. Based on this chart, consensus estimates AMD's future revenue will decline slightly by -7.9% in FY2024, due to the easing of global supply chain issues, which will improve semiconductor chip supply from the current shortfall. In addition, we suspect AMD may face some competition from INTC due to its data-centric processor launches of P-Core Granite Rapids Xeon SP v6 CPU and E-Core Intel 3 'Sierra Forest' CPU in 2024. As a result, investors who add now must be aware of the potential moderation in AMD's valuation two years later.

Nonetheless, over the next four years, AMD is expected to report somewhat choppy revenue growth at a CAGR of 15.25%. Based on this chart, consensus estimates AMD's future revenue will decline slightly by -7.9% in FY2024, due to the easing of global supply chain issues, which will improve semiconductor chip supply from the current shortfall. In addition, we suspect AMD may face some competition from INTC due to its data-centric processor launches of P-Core Granite Rapids Xeon SP v6 CPU and E-Core Intel 3 'Sierra Forest' CPU in 2024. As a result, investors who add now must be aware of the potential moderation in AMD's valuation two years later.

 

 

 

AMD is currently trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 7.48x, higher than its 3Y mean of 6.84x. However, its stock price has slightly moderated from its highs of $161.91 from November 2021 to $108.41 on 4th March 2022. In addition, the company's substantial revenue guidance for FY2022 makes AMD stock attractive right now, given its splendid performance in FY2021 and the robust demand for superior cloud-based chips. The dip may therefore provide a good entry point to interested investors.