마이크론, 목표가 하향(2022.06.14)

2022.06.14

요약: PC와 스마트폰의 판매가 감소하고 있고, 스마트폰 부품사에 대한 주문 감소가 현실화되고 있는등

소비자 부문 매출이 비중이 큰 마이크론의 목표가 하향이 이루어지고 있다.

디램 현물가는 지속적으로 하락하고 있다.

 

시장에서는  PC와 스마트폰의 판매가 감소로 인한 메모리 매출 감소를 데이터센터향 매출 증가로

상쇄하기는 힘들 것이라는 의견이 우세해지고 있다.

 

마이크론에 대한 투자등급이 기존 매수에서 보유 또는 중립으로 하향되는 중.

 

Summit Insights Group은 마이크론 투자등급을 매수에서 보유로 하향.

UBS는 투자등급은 매수로 유지. 목표가를 120달러에서 115달러로 낮췄으나 긍정적인 시각을 유지.

 

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Micron - Demand And Pricing Declines On The Way (NASDAQ:MU) | Seeking Alpha

 

Summary

• We move Micron stock to a hold/neutral because the weaker consumer market will reduce data center and enterprise demand in the coming quarters.
• 우리는 마이크론의 투자 등급을 보유 또는 중립으로 하향. 이유는 소비자 시장의 수요 약화가 데이터센터와 기업용 수요를 감소시킬 것이기 때문이다.
•  
• We continue to see further weakness in the consumer PC and smartphone markets as inflation takes a toll on people's finances.
• 우리는 인플레이션이 소비자의 금융에 타격을 입히기때문에 소비자용 PC와 스마트폰 시장이 더욱 약해지는
• 것을 보고있다.
•  
• We expect more downward pressure on DRAM and NAND prices which could result in further gross margin pressure.
• 우리는 디램과 낸드 가격이 더 하락할 것으로 예상하며, 그것은 마이크론의 매출총이익에 영향을 줄것이다.
•  
• While the stock is cheap, we do not expect the stock to do much as long as the demand continues to slacken.
• 현재 주가는 싸지만, 우리는 수요가 활발하지 않는한 주가가 상승할 것으로 기대하지 않는다.

 

We downgrade Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) to hold after our buy rating in early April.

우리는 마이크론을 지난 4월의 매수 등급에서 보유로 하향한다.

 

MU is a giant memory company in the global semiconductor industry. Our job as technology analysts is to understand the market and the company's business. In the case of MU, we love the company, but the stock might not work in the near term.

 

We believe MU is overexposed to the declining consumer markets: PC and smartphones. We expect significant demand headwinds in consumer markets and believe MU will feel the negative repercussions from demand declines in coming quarters. We will revisit the stock when the demand normalizes or improves.

MU is on thin ice if consumer demand continues to decline.

Currently, MU revenue can be broken down into 15% from Automotive, Industrial, and networking segments,

30% from Data Center and graphics, and 55% from PC's/Mobile devices.

MU is heavily exposed to the consumer segment of the market, and its revenue and earnings are at risk.

The following slide exhibits MU's current markets and its intentions to reduce consumer market exposure by FY2025.

 

MU의 부문별 매출은 자동차와 산업, 네트워크 부문이 15%, 데이터센터와 그래픽 부문이 30%,

PC와 스마트폰 부문이 55%를 차지한다.

MU는 소비자향 부문( PC와 스마트폰 부문)에 과도하게 노출돼 있기때문에 매출과 이익이 위험하다.

아래 슬라이드는 MU의 시장별 매출을 나타내며 2025년까지 소비자향 부문 매출을 줄이려는

MU의 의도를 나타낸 것이다.

 

마이크론은 2025년까지 PC와 스마트폰부문의 매출 비중을 현재 55%에서 38%로 낮추고, 데이터센터 부문 매출 비중을

현재 30%에서 42%로, 자동차와 산업부문매출 비중은 15%에서 20%로 높일 계획이다.

 

Micron

It is not a matter of "if" but a matter of "when"

We believe is no longer a question of if consumer markets will decline, but when. PC and smartphone chip demand is dropping already. Chen Junsheng, chairman of Acer, which competes as the world's 4th largest PC supplier, said in early June that the entire PC market had turned over, and the "supply exceeds demand." Demand headwinds are manifesting in the smartphone market as well. According to IDC, worldwide shipments have already declined by 8.9% year over year in 1Q22. We expect such declines to continue and intensify with inflationary pressures. We believe MU's exposure to the declining consumer market will cause the stock to underperform.

DRAM is not MU's safe haven anymore

DRAM makes up most of MU' s revenue, making up 73%, while NAND makes up most of the remaining 27%. We believe MU cannot escape upcoming demand headwinds, even with its DRAM data center business. We had previously been optimistic about MU's prospects in the cloud business. However, we believe the declines in consumer spending in terms of PC and smartphones will cause cloud CAPEX to be cut. In turn, we believe the cut in cloud CAPEX will take a toll on MU's DRAM revenue. We believe DRAM and cloud data centers are not immune to the impacts of the declining consumer markets. The following table shows MU's revenue breakdown by technology/products.

Micron

We also believe pricing headwinds are underway in the DRAM market. We see price declines in DRAM products, as shown in the following graph. We believe the supply is ahead of demand. We expect the market to see demand headwinds over the next couple of quarters and downgrade the stock to hold. The following chart from Piper Sandler shows a DRAM pricing decline.

Piper Sandler

Valuation

MU is trading at $59. The stock is cheap. On the P/E basis, MU is trading at 4.6x C2023, with EPS of around $10 compared to 13.9x for the semiconductor peer group. The stock is trading at 1.6x EV/C2023 sales versus the peer group average of 4.5x. Adjusted for growth, MU is trading at 0.1x C2023 compared to the group average of 0.7x. The following chart illustrates the semiconductor peer group valuation.

Refinitiv and Techstockpros

Word on wall street

Market consensus on MU is an overwhelming buy. Out of the 38 analysts, the majority, 31, are buy-rated, six are hold-rated, and one is sell-rated. Growing analyst optimism is reflected in the extreme upside of the sell-side price targets presented. MU is currently trading at around $59. The sell-side median price target is $108, and the mean is $109, for an upside of 83-85%. The following chart indicates MU's sell-side ratings and price targets:

Refinitiv

 

What to do with the stock

Despite being cheap, MU does not present a favorable risk-reward situation. We believe MU will feel the impact of consumer demand headwinds because the company's revenue is highly exposed to consumer segments. We also do not believe the cloud business can bail MU out of the upcoming demand slowdown. We expect the stock to decline or remain rangebound in the near term. We will get back to the stock when demand normalizes. Therefore, we recommend investors wait for a better entry point for the stock.

 

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2022.06.14

Summit downgrades Micron to hold, UBS cuts PT (NASDAQ:MU) | Seeking Alpha

• Summit Insights Group downgraded Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) while UBS cut its price target on the stock, which has seen around -6% decline today and -38.28% YTD.
•  
• Summit downgraded Micron to hold from buy, with analyst KinNgai Chan saying "We no longer expect the memory market dynamics to turn favorable in H2/2022. In addition to seeing lower-than-expected demand in the second half of the year, MU could also see gross-margin headwinds."
•  
• Chan also noted "continued sluggishness" in the smartphone market and "continued decline in the PC client demand." Summit's hold rating is in contrast with SA's quant rating of a strong buy.
•  
• UBS was more positive than Summit, lowering its price target from $120 to $115 but maintaining its buy rating. Analysts behind the price target cut said that "concerns around consumer demand" have pushed the stock down,
• but Micron (MU) is still positioned well enough to benefit from strong pricing support heading into 2023 as "industry growth in bit supply is set to compress significantly".
•  
•  
• UBS has lowered its PC and smartphone forecasts for 2022 and 2023 but maintained its server estimates, suggesting demand should be buoyed by cloud as new server platforms with bigger memory ramp up in 2023.