반도체 D램 가격 1분기 20% 급락(2023.03.29)

2023.03.29

TrendForce 보고에 따르면  마이크론과 SK하이닉스 등 여러 공급업체들이 DRAM 생산을 축소하기 시작했다.

DRAM의 ASP는 1Q23에 20% 급락했으며, 이번 분기에는 하락폭이 10~15%로 낮아질 것으로 예상된다.

수요가 2H23에 회복될지 여부는 불확실하다.

따라서, 공급업체들의 재고 수준이 높아 DRAM의 ASP는 계속해서 하락하고,

생산량이 크게 감소하지 않는 한 가격은 오르지 않을 것이다.

 

 

 

"반도체 D램 가격 1분기 20% 급락…당분간 하락세 지속" | 연합뉴스 (yna.co.kr)

"반도체 D램 가격 1분기 20% 급락…당분간 하락세 지속" | 연합뉴스

 

---------------------------------------------------

Decline in DRAM ASP Narrows to 10~15% in 2Q23 with No End in Sight, Says TrendForce

TrendForce 보고에 따르면  2Q23에 DRAM ASP 하락폭은 10~15%로 좁아지지만 하락의 끝이 보이지 않는다.

 

TrendForce reports that several suppliers, such as Micron and SK hynix, have started scaling back DRAM production. The ASP of DRAM plunged 20% in 1Q23, and this price decline is predicted to slow down to 10~15% next quarter.

It’s uncertain whether or not demand will recover in 2H23.

Therefore, the ASP of DRAM has continued to fall as inventory levels are high from the suppliers’ side,

and prices will only rebound if there is a significant decrease in production.

 

TrendForce 보고에 따르면  마이크론과 SK하이닉스 등 여러 공급업체들이 DRAM 생산을 축소하기 시작했다.

DRAM의 ASP는 1Q23에 20% 급락했으며, 이번 분기에는 하락폭이 10~15%로 낮아질 것으로 예상된다.

수요가 2H23에 회복될지 여부는 불확실하다.

따라서, 공급업체들의 재고 수준이 높아 DRAM의 ASP는 계속해서 하락하고,

생산량이 크게 감소하지 않는 한 가격은 오르지 않을 것이다.

 

PC DRAM: Purchase quantity from buyers has fallen drastically over the past three quarters; buyers have around 9~13 weeks of PC DRAM stock remaining.

PC DRAM: 구매자들의 구매 수량은 지난 3분기 동안 급격하게 감소했으며,

구매자들은 약 9~13주간의 PC DRAM 재고가 남아 있습니다.

 

Despite suppliers having already cut production in the PC DRAM segment, DDR4 8 GB module is still likely to fall by more than 10% in 2Q23. There is a possibility that PC OEMs may purchase more DRAM because prices have been down to a relatively low level, but it is still under observation whether or not this can mitigate the inventory overstock situation from the suppliers’ side. TrendForce predicts the ASP of PC DRAM will fall between 10~15%.

 

공급 업체들이 이미 PC DRAM 세그먼트에서 생산을 줄였음에도 불구하고, DDR4 8GB 모듈의 가격은

2023년2분기에 10% 이상 하락할 것으로 예상됩니다.

PC OEMs가 가격이 비교적 저렴한 수준으로 내려간 상황에서 DRAM을 더 많이 구입할 가능성은 있지만,

이것이 공급 업체 측에서 재고 과다 상황을 완화시킬 수 있는지 여부는 아직 관찰 대상입니다.

TrendForce는 PC DRAM의 ASP가 10~15% 사이로 하락할 것으로 예측합니다.

 

Server DRAM: Demand for server DRAM from OEMs and cloud service providers has been sluggish due to inventory adjustments. In addition, consumer demand looks less than promising, prompting suppliers to increase the ratio of server DRAMs in their product mixes. However, this resulted in a massive inventory pile-up during 1Q23. While most suppliers have lowered their capacity utilization rates, their efforts have yet to make a noticeable impact on declining prices. TrendForce predicts that the ASP of server DRAM will fall 13~18% in 2Q23.

 

Server DRAM: 재고 조정으로 인해 OEM 및 클라우드 서비스 제공업체의 Server DRAM 수요가 부진했습니다. 또한 소비자 수요가 기대에 미치지 못하여 공급업체가 제품 믹스에서 서버 DRAM의 비율을 늘리도록 촉구하고 있습니다. 하지만 이로 인해 2023년 1Q에 대규모 재고가 쌓였습니다. 대부분의 공급업체는 가동률을 낮추었지만 가격 하락에 눈에 띄는 영향을 미치지는 못했습니다. 트렌드포스는 2분기 서버 D램 ASP가 13~18% 하락할 것으로 내다봤다.

 

Mobile DRAM: The DRAM inventories of smartphone brands have returned to a relatively healthy level. However, these brands have mostly adopted a conservative plan of action for smartphone production, which means that buyer demand for mobile DRAM will be constrained in 2Q23. As a result, suppliers are under a great deal of pressure to sell off as much stock as possible. Even with cutbacks being made in mobile DRAM production, reversing their current overstock will continue to be a challenge for these companies. TrendForce predicts the ASP of mobile DRAM to continue falling as we move into 2Q23. Nevertheless, there is a possibility that the decline will shrink to 10~15%.

 

Mobile DRAM: 스마트폰 브랜드의 DRAM 재고는 비교적 양호한 수준으로 회복되었다. 그러나 이들 브랜드는 대부분 스마트폰 생산에 대해 보수적인 행동 계획을 채택했기 때문에 2Q23에는 모바일 DRAM에 대한 구매자 수요가 제한될 것입니다. 그 결과 공급업체는 가능한 한 많은 재고를 매각해야 한다는 엄청난 압력을 받고 있습니다.

 

 모바일 DRAM 생산이 삭감되더라도 현재의 과잉 재고를 되돌리는 것은 이들 회사에게 계속 도전이 될 것입니다. TrendForce는 모바일 DRAM의 ASP가 2Q23으로 넘어가면서 계속 하락할 것으로 예측합니다. 다만 하락률은 10~15%로 축소될 가능성이 있다.

 

Graphics DRAM: Buyers have been stocking up on graphics DRAM rather conservatively, while even AI has failed to make a considerable impact on demand. Taking a mainstream product, the GDDR6 16Gb, for example, TrendForce predicts ASP will fall 10~15% QoQ in 2Q23 due to constrained demand. The DRAM industry is currently in the midst of transitioning from 8 to 16Gb; Samsung’s GDDR6 8 Gb will reach its EOL at the end of the year. Beginning 2024, SK hynix will be the only company still offering 8Gb products. Rolling back production could finally present an opportunity for the price of GDDR6 8Gb to stop fluctuating aggressively.

 

Consumer DRAM: Demand for networking devices has been relatively stable. However, buyers have dialed back their procurement activities as of late given that existing orders have been completed. These buyers appear to have conservative estimations of the growth potential of network-related demand this year, and the application market, which includes television, will be unable to support demand for the consumer DRAM market. Supply continues to outpace demand even as suppliers reduce their production considerably. TrendForce predicts that the ASP of consumer DRAM will fall 10~15% in 2Q23.