마이크론-폭등이 가까울 수도 있다(2020.11.06)

2020.11.06

11월6일 마이크론테크놀로지 종가 55.16달러, 시총은 614.05억달러(원화 약 68.78조원).

참고로 SK하이닉스 시총은 62.83조원.

 

seekingalpha.com/article/4386014-microns-stock-may-be-nearing-big-breakout?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha#alt2&mail_subject=mu-micron-s-stock-may-be-nearing-a-big-breakout&utm_campaign=rta-stock-article&utm_content=link-2

 

Summary

Micron's stock has been steadily rising.

The stock may be on its way back to $61.50, based on an analysis of the chart.

The bullish views come despite weak gross margins.

마이크론 주식은 꾸준히 올라서 전 고점인 61.50달러로 갈수도 있다.

약한 실적 전망에도 불구하고 강세 견해가 나타나고 있다.

 

Micron's (NASDAQ:MU) stock may be heading to prices not seen since the middle of February, as the shares near a potential breakout and options trades show bullish activity. The optimism follows lackluster fiscal first-quarter guidance, which has resulted in analysts taking down estimates.

 

Meanwhile, the company reported fiscal fourth-quarter gross profit margins of 34.9%, which missed analysts' estimates of 35.2%. Additionally, gross profit margins for the fiscal first quarter missed estimates, with analysts now looking for margins of 27.5% versus prior estimates of 33.2%.

마이크론은 4분기(6월-8월말) 실적 발표에서 매출총이익률이 시장 기대치 35.2%에 못미치는 34.9%이라고 발표.

다음 분기 매출총이익률도 시장 기대치 33.2%에 못미치는 27.5%로 발표.

 

Surprisingly, a bullish narrative plays out in the stock despite margins missing estimates for the fiscal fourth quarter and the weak fiscal guidance.

시장 기대치에도 못미치는 실적과 실적 예상치 발표에도, 주식은 강세 의견이 펼쳐지고 있다.

 

The stock's performance in the past has largely centered around its profit margins. With the stock rising in advance of improving margins and falling in advance of falling margins. So while the company has had bad margins that appear to be getting worse next quarter, the stock has been rising.

과거에 마이크론 주가는 실적에 집중했다. 실적이 좋아지면 앞서서 주가는 상승하고 실적이 나빠지면

주가는 앞서서 하락한다. 그런데 다음 분기 실적이 나빠지는데 주가는 상승하고 있다.

 

What is surprising is that for the most part, since 1995, the stock has seen its peaks and troughs coincide with peaks in the gross margins. But more recently, specifically, this year, we can see a divergence in this pattern. The market may be anticipating an uptick in margins, or it could be that the market has it wrong.

1995년이래 대부분 주가의 꼭지와 바닥은 실적과 동행했다. 하지만 올해는 이 패턴이 다르게 움직이는 것을 볼수있다

시장은 실적이 예상치보다 좋을 것으로 생각하거나, 시장이 틀릴 수도 있다고 생각하는 것같다.

 

However, some betting is still taking place in the options market that suggests it continues to rise. The open interest for the January 15 $57.50 calls rose by 7,500 contracts on November 6. The data shows that a trader bought these contracts and paid around $2.76 per contract. It means that the stock would need to rise to around $60.25 for the trader to break even on the purchase by the expiration date. That would be a gain of about 9.5% from its current price of roughly $55 on November 6.

하지만 주가가 계속 상승할 것이라는데에  베팅하는 일이 옵션 시장에서 일어나고 있다.

내년 1월15일 결제일에 마이크론 주가가 57.50달러이상이면 그 차익만큼의 몇배에 해당하는 이익을 얻을 수있는

콜옵션 매수가 11월6일 현재 7,500 계약에 달했다. 그들이 매수한 1옵션 계약 가격은 2.76달러였다.

 

The stock has been rising in a trading channel higher since bottoming on August 17. In fact, the stock is now nearing resistance around $55.60, and if it should break out above that level of resistance, it is likely to go on and climb to around $61.50. Additionally, the relative strength index has been rising, suggesting momentum has been coming into the shares in recent weeks.

 

The stock clearly has the bullish momentum behind it to lift the shares. Investors may choose not to focus on the business's fundamentals until it gets closer to earnings for the company that doesn't come until the middle of December. It means the stock may get a free pass to continue to run for some time leading into those results, especially with the tailwind of a strong sector and overall stock market.

But investors should be kept on notice that over time, the stock does seem to reflect the trends in margins, and if those margins continue to remain weak, the shares may be under considerable pressure.