TSMC의 큰 캐펙스 증가는 인텔과 관련?

2021.01.15(금) TSMC 종가는 125.23달러, 시총은 5556.17억달러(원화 1100원 계산시/ 611조1787억원)

2020년 매출은 원화로 52조5541억원, 순이익은 20조7160억원이다.

PER은 29.5배 수준이다.

TSM 125.23 -1.22 -0.96% : Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur - Yahoo Finance

 

삼성전자 파운드리와 TSMC를 비교하면(추정치)

전체 글로벌 파운드리 매출 점유율은  삼성 17%: TSMC 54%

10나노-7나노 공정 매출은              삼성 30%: TSMC 70%

  5나노 공정 매출은                      삼성 40%: TSMC 60%

 

TSMC의 공정별 매출 점유률은

5나노 공정 매출이 전체 매출의 20% 차지, 7나노는 29%, 16나노는 13%차지했으며 16나노공정이하의 미세공정 매출이

전체 매출의 62% 차지.

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2021.02.15

삼성전자 월 306만장

삼성전자, 대만 TSMC 제치고 글로벌 웨이퍼 생산 능력 세계 1위 (g-enews.com)

회사별 웨이퍼 생산 능력(월 천장)

 

 

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202101.14

TSMC's Big 2021 Capex Budget Might Have Something to Do With Intel - RealMoney (thestreet.com)

 

TSMC's Big 2021 Capex Budget Might Have Something to Do With Intel

2021년 TSMC의 큰 캐펙스 예산은 인텔과 관련이 있을지도 모른다.

 

The very aggressive 2021 capex forecast that TSMC (TSM)  shared in its Q4 report on Thursday might be

a by-product of both expected demand from current major clients and expectations of large future orders

from a well-known chip giant.

2021년 거대한 투자 예산은 현존하는 고객의 수요와 잘알려진 거대 칩회사의 향후 주문의 부산물 일수도있다.

 

As usual, TSMC's Q4 sales ($12.68 billion, up 22% annually) were already known via monthly sales reports.

And with top customers such as Apple (AAPL) , AMD (AMD) , Nvidia (NVDA) , Qualcomm (QCOM) and Mediatek seeing pretty healthy demand right now, TSMC's Q1 guidance for revenue of $12.7 billion to $13 billion -- up 23%-26% annually and above a $12.3 billion FactSet consensus -- wasn't a total shock, either.

 

2020년4분기 TSMC의 매출은 126.8억달러로 전년동기대비 22% 증가하였다.

애플, AMD, 엔비디아, 퀄컴과 미디어텍과 같은 탑 고객들의 수요는 매우 강할 것으로 보이면서,

TSMC의 1분기 매출 예상치는 전년 동기대비 23%-26%증가한 127억달러에서 130억달러 수준이며,

이는 팩트셋의 컨센서스 123억달러를 상회했다. 

 

What was surprising was TSMC's decision to set a $25 billion to $28 billion capex budget.

That's far above TSMC's reported 2020 capex of $17.2 billion, and at its midpoint is more than 150% above reported 2018 capex of $10.5 billion. It's also far above Intel's  (INTC) 2020 capex budget of $14.2 billion to $14.5 billion, and easily tops the $20 billion to $22 billion range that TSMC was recently reported to be thinking about setting.

 

TSMC의 2021년 설비투자금액 250억달러에서 280억달러 수준은 놀랄만한 일이다.

이는 TSMC가 2020년 캐펙스는 172억달러로 2019년 캐펙스 105억달러의 150%이상이었다.

또 이는 기존 TSMC가 투자할 것으로 보도되었던 200억달러-220억달러를 상회하는 투자 금액이다.

 

In addition, TSMC CFO Jen-Chau Huang suggested that -- with TSMC now expecting its revenue to grow at a 10% to 15% compound annual rate (CAGR) from 2020 to 2025 -- his firm's capex will remain elevated beyond 2021.

Chip equipment stocks are naturally taking the news pretty well. Applied Materials (AMAT) , KLA (KLAC) and Lam Research  (LRCX) are all up more than 6% in Thursday trading as of the time of this article, and several other industry names are up over 5%. TSMC, meanwhile, is up 8% to new highs.

 

TSMC 재무담당 사장은 TSMC의 매출은 2020년부터 2025년까지 매년 복리로 10%에서 15%사이로 증가할 것으로 예상.

이런 소식에 목요일 주식 시장에서 반도체 장비주 주가도 6%이상 상승했다.

 

With reports already swirling about Intel holding talks with TSMC and Samsung about potentially using one or both of the foundries to make some of its most advanced CPUs, TSMC's 2021 capex budget can't help but heighten speculation that the company expects major orders from Intel over the next couple of years. And some of the responses that TSMC execs gave on its Q4 earnings call to analyst questions didn't exactly cool such speculation.

 

When asked about whether TSMC's share of x86 CPU production -- a market that Intel and AMD control between them -- will rise as it rolls out its 3-nanometer (3nm) process node, which is set to enter volume production in the second half of 2022, IR chief Jeff Su said that TSMC's expects its "exposure to x86 continue to increase" with 3nm. CEO C.C. Wei then jumped in and added that TSMC doesn't "specifically comment" on sales of particular types of products.

 

TSMC는 3나노 공정은 2022년 하반기부터 양산할 예정.

 

Later, when asked about TSMC's 2020-2025 growth outlook, Wei forecast TSMC's sales involving "HPC" applications (a catch-all term used by TSMC to cover sales of CPUs, GPUs and other PC and data center products) would grow faster than the company's total revenue growth.

 

Also, though this fits to an extent with how much of TSMC's capex has been historically spent, Huang said that the 80% of TSMC's 2021 capex that will be dedicated to advanced process nodes (including 3nm, 5nm and 7nm) will "primarily" be related to capacity arriving in future years.

 

2021년 캐펙스의 80%는 3나노,5나노와 7나노 공정에 투자될 것이다.

 

Intel, which already uses TSMC to manufacture some of its less advanced chips and plans to lean on foundries to help reduce the fallout from the 7nm manufacturing setback it disclosed in July, said in October that it would share details about its manufacturing plans at the time of its Q4 report, which will arrive on Jan. 21.

 

With Intel announcing on Wednesday that former CTO Pat Gelsinger will be replacing Bob Swan as CEO on Feb. 15, it's possible that the company will hold off on formally making any major announcements about its manufacturing plans until Gelsinger takes charge.

 

Also, Intel did say on Wednesday (without elaborating) that it has made "strong progress" with its 7nm node, which is roughly competitive with TSMC's recently-commercialized 5nm node and is now set to reach volume production around the same time as TSMC's 3nm node, and will share more on Jan. 21.

 

One could also add that even if Intel is set to place large orders with TSMC for wafers made using cutting-edge processes, the strength of the demand that TSMC is now seeing from current major clients -- fueled by growing sales of smartphones, cars, notebooks, game consoles, cloud servers, AI accelerators and much else -- also likely has something to do with its 2021 capex budget. This demand has already led TSMC to see wafer capacity tightness, particularly for mature process nodes.

But between recent media reports, the magnitude of TSMC's capex hike and TSMC's earnings call commentary, as well as the pressure that Intel is now facing from activist Dan Loeb, it definitely wouldn't be surprising to see Intel announce a high-end CPU outsourcing deal with TSMC sometime soon.

Apple, AMD, and Nvidia are holdings in Jim Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS Charitable Trust Portfolio. Want to be alerted before Cramer buys or sells these stocks? Learn more now.

 

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20210.01.14

CPU 기술유출 우려, 인텔 삼성 대신 TSMC 손 잡을 듯 (sedaily.com)

 

인텔이 일부 반도체 생산을 삼성전자나 대만 TSMC에 맡기는 방안을 검토하면서 어느 업체를 최종 선택할지 관심이 쏠린다.

인텔이 반도체 생산 아웃소싱을 추진하는 것은 7나노(㎚·10억 분의 1m) 이하 미세 공정 도입에 어려움을 겪고 있어서다. 전 세계 파운드리(반도체 위탁 생산) 업체 중 인텔이 원하는 7나노 이하 반도체를 만들 수 있는 곳은 삼성전자와 TSMC밖에 없다. 인텔은 오는 21일(현지 시간) 지난해 4·4분기 실적을 발표하며 관련 내용을 공개할 것으로 예상된다.

14일 외신 및 업계에 따르면 인텔의 위탁 생산 물량은 TSMC가 가져갈 가능성이 높아 보인다.

시장조사 기관 트렌드포스는 이날 인텔이 차세대 중앙처리장치(CPU) 생산을 TSMC에 맡길 계획이라고 전했다.

 

TSMC는 인텔의 차세대 코어 i3 CPU를 5나노 공정으로 생산하고 내년에는 더 미세한 3나노 공정을 적용할 것으로

알려졌다. 인텔이 TSMC에 아웃소싱하는 CPU는 전체의 15~20% 정도일 것으로 관측됐다.

출처 : https://www.sedaily.com/NewsView/22H95KEP4B

 

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2021.01.15

5나노 장착 TSMC 화웨이 없이도 4분기 최대 실적 | 한경닷컴 (hankyung.com)

 

세계 최대 반도체 수탁생산업체(파운드리)인 대만 TSMC가 지난해 4분기에 5나노 공정 매출 본격화에 힘입어

분기 기준 역대 최대 실적을 올렸다.

최대 고객사 중 하나인 화웨이가 미국의 제재로 이탈했으나 애플과 샤오미 등이 주문을 더 늘린 것으로 분석된다.

TSMC는 2020년 4분기에 매출 3615억대만달러(약 14조1400억원)를 거뒀다고 14일 발표했다.

전년 동기 대비 14% 증가했다. 순이익은 1427억대만달러로 23% 늘었다.

순이익률은 같은 기간 36.6%에서 39.5%로 올라갔다. 매출과 순이익 모두 분기 기준 최대다.

류더인 TSMC 회장은 실적 설명회에서 "4분기에 공장 가동률이 높았고 환율 조건도 좋았다"며 "장기적으로 이익률은 50% 안팎을 유지할 것"이라고 말했다.

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TSMC expects another record in 1Q21 revenue (digitimes.com)

 

5나노 공정 매출이 전체의 20%차지.

7나노와 16나노는 각각 29%와 13% 차지.

 

SMC expects to post revenues of between US$12.7 billion and US$13 billion in the first quarter of 2021,

which is a 1.3% sequential increase at the midpoint. Gross margin and operating margin for the quarter are estimated at 50.5-52.5% and 39.5-41.5%, respectively.

 

TSMC also disclosed its capex target this year will be US$25-28 billion, with 80% of the sum to be allocated for advanced technologies including 3nm.

 

TSMC reported net profits grew 23% on year and 4% sequentially to NT$142.77 billion (US$5.1 billion) in the fourth quarter of 2020. EPS for the quarter came to NT$5.51, or US$0.97 per ADR unit.

 

TSMC posted net sales of NT$361.53 billion for the fourth quarter, up 1.4% sequentially and 14% from the same period in 2019. Gross margin arrived at 54% compared with 53.4% in the prior quarter and 50.2% a year earlier, while operating margin climbed 1.4pp on quarter and 4.3pp on year to 43.5%.

 

In US dollars, TSMC's fourth-quarter revenue came to US$12.68 billion representing increases of 22% on year and 4.4% sequentially.

 

TSMC disclosed 5nm chip shipments accounted for 20% of its total wafer revenue in the fourth quarter of 2020, while shipments of 7nm and 16nm chips accounted for 29% and 13%, respectively, of the revenue. Advanced technologies, defined as 16nm and more advanced technologies, accounted for 62% of TSMC total wafer revenue in the fourth quarter.

5나노 공정 매출이 전체 매출의 20% 차지, 7나노는 29%, 16나노는 13%차지했으며 16나노공정이하의 미세공정 매출이

전체 매출의 62% 차지.

 

TSMC credited its robust 5nm chip shipments during the fourth quarter to demand for 5G smartphones and HPC-related applications. TSMC saw its shipments for smartphones represent 51% of the foundry's total wafer revenue in the fourth quarter, followed by those for HPC-related applications with 31%.

North America remained the largest market of TSMC in the fourth quarter of 2020. Sales generated from its clients based in North America also grew as a proportion of company revenue to 73% in the fourth quarter.

In all of 2020, TSMC saw sales generated from 5nm process technology account for 8% of its total wafer revenue. Sales generated from orders for smartphones accounted for 48% of the foundry's total revenue last year, while the North America market generated 62% of the revenue.

TSMC expects to continue outperforming the industry average this year, with sales growth in the mid-teens range.