TSMC 의 5년후 위치

2021.07.20

TSM 116.40 1.05 0.91% : Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited - Yahoo Finance

Where Will TSMC Be in 5 Years?

 

Key Points

• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing produces the world’s most advanced chips.
• TSMC is likely to maintain that technological and production lead over the next five years.
• The market’s insatiable demand for new semiconductor chips will drive TSMC's growth.
  

글로벌 1위 파운드리업체인 TSMC는 굳건한 성장률을 유지하기 위한 계획으로 밝은 미래를 가진다.

 

1.TSMC는 세계에서 가장 앞선 공정으로 반도체를 만든다.

2.TSMC는 향후 5년간 다른 업체보다 앞선 기술과 생산을 유지할 것같다.

3. 시장의 새로운 반도체에 대한 끊임없는 수요는 TSMC의 성장을 견인할 것이다.

 

 

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) operates the world's most advanced chip foundries.

It manufactures the industry's smallest and most power-efficient chips for chipmakers like Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD), Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM), NVIDIA, and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL).

 

TSMC는 세계에서 가장 앞선 반도체 파운드리 공장을 운영한다.

TSMC는 AMD, 퀄컴, 엔비디아와 애플등을 위한 세계에서 가장 작고, 가장 전력 효율이 좋은 반도체를 만든다.

 

As a linchpin of the global semiconductor industry, TSMC profits from the market's current insatiable appetite for new chips. Over the past five years, its stock price has more than quadrupled as faster wireless connections, the expansion of the data center and Internet of Things (IoT) markets, new 5G and AI applications, and more advanced electronic devices have all sparked feverish demand for new chips.

 

TSMC는 글로벌 반도체 산업의 중요업체로 시장의 끊임없는 새로운 반도체에 대한 수요로부터 이익을 취한다.

더 빠른 무선통신, 데이터센터와 사물인터넷의 증가, 또 5G와 인공지능과 첨단 기기등이

요구하는 새로운 반도체 수요로 지난 5년간 TSMC의 주가는  4배로 상승하였다

 

TSMC has clearly been a great long-term investment, but can it maintain its momentum over the next five years? Let's take a fresh look at its technological roadmap and near-term challenges to decide.

How far is TSMC ahead of the competition?

TSMC는 다른업체보다 얼마나 앞서있는가?

 

TSMC started mass producing 5nm chips, which contain the smallest microprocessors in the world, in the second quarter of 2020. Samsung, its closest competitor, crossed that sizing milestone shortly afterward, but its 5nm chips still aren't as dense as TSMC's 5nm chips.

 

TSMC는 세계에서 가장 작은 반도체인 5나노공정으로 제조한 칩을 2020년2분기부터 양산하고 있다.

 TSMC의 가장 근접한 경쟁자인 삼성은 곧 뒤따라왔지만, 삼성의 5나노 칩은 집적도에서 TSMC에 뒤쳐진다.

(칩 1개당 TSMC가 만든 칩의 트랜지스터 포함 개수가 더 많다)

 

Denser chips pack more transistors into a smaller space, so leading "fabless" chipmakers like AMD, NVIDIA, and Apple still prefer to outsource their highest-end chips to TSMC instead of Samsung.

칩당 더 많은 트랜지스터를 집적할 수있는 이런 기술 때문에  AMD, NVIDIA와 Apple같은 유수 팹리스업체들이  

삼성대신에  TSMC를 선택하는 이유이다.

 

But TSMC and Samsung both remain far ahead of Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), which struggled to make the mass-production leap from 10nm to 7nm chips. Intel originally planned to launch its first 7nm chips in late 2021, but they've been postponed to 2023 following a series of manufacturing mishaps.

TSMC와 삼성은 모두 인텔보다는 기술이 앞서있다.

인텔은 10나노공정에서 7나노공정으로 넘어가는데 어려움을 겪고있다.

인텔은 원래 2021년말 7나노공정 제품을 생산하려고했으나, 여러 어려움으로 2023년으로 연기하였다.

 

What's TSMC's roadmap for the next five years?

TSMC의 향후 5년간 로드맵은?

 

Looking back at TSMC's historic roadmap from the past 34 years, we'll see why Intel and so many other foundries have struggled to manufacture smaller chips.

IMAGE SOURCE: TSMC.

 

Up until the end of the 20th century, each new node was much smaller than the previous one. But since then, it has become increasingly difficult and expensive to manufacture smaller and denser chips on a mass scale.

 

That's why many chipmakers gave up on becoming IDMs (integrated device manufacturers) like Intel, which designs and manufactures its own chips. Today, most IDMs -- like Texas Instruments and Skyworks Solutions -- manufacture larger chips instead of producing tiny high-end chips.

 

TSMC plans to start mass-producing 3nm chips in the second half of 2022. It expects these chips to provide 70% more logic density than its 5nm chips, as well as 15% more speed at the same power levels and a 30% power reduction at the same speeds.

 

TSMC는 2022년 하반기에 3나노공정으로 양산할 계획이다. 

3나노공정은 5나노공정대비 집적도가 70%가 향상될 것이다.

3나노공정 제품은 5나조공정 제품대비 동작 속도가 15%빠르고 30% 전력이 절감된다.

 

Upcoming chips, including AMD's Zen 5 CPUs, Apple's new first-party processors, and Qualcomm's next-gen Snapdragons, will all be manufactured with TSMC's 3nm process. Even Intel, which recently doubled down on its domestic foundry plans, will outsource some of its chips to TSMC's 3nm supply lines.

That's why TSMC's 3nm node has already been entirely booked through 2024.

 

향후 발매될 AMD젠5 CPU, 애플의 신규 CPU와 퀄컴의 차세대 스냅드래곤등은 TSMC의 3나노 공정으로 만들어

질것이다.

심지어 최근 미국내 파운드리 투자를 2배로 늘린 인텔조차도 TSMC의 3나노 공정을 이용할 것으로

알려졌다.

이것이 TSMC의 3나노 공정이 2024년까지 이미 예약 완료된 이유다.

 

To meet that demand and maintain its lead, TSMC plans to increase its capex from $17.2 billion in 2020 to roughly $30 billion this year, and collectively spend about $100 billion over the next three years.

It's also already started developing 2nm chips, and mass production could kick off in 2026.

이러한 수요를 맞추기위해 TSMC는 시설투자액을 2020년 172억달러에서 2021년 300억달러로 증가시켰다.

또 향후 3년간은 1000억달러를 투자할 것이다.

2나노공정을 이미 개발중이며, 2026년에 양산을 시작할 것이다.

But what about the competition?

Based on these facts, the ongoing chip shortage and robust demand for new 5nm chips should support TSMC's sales growth through 2024. But TSMC should still keep an eye on the competition.

지속되는 반도체 부족과 5나노공정에 대한  강한 수요로 TSMC는 2024년까지 매출 성장을 이룰 것이지만.

경쟁 회사들에 대한 경계도 주시하고있다.

 

Samsung also plans to mass-produce 3nm chips in 2022, but it's expected to remain behind TSMC and Intel in terms of overall density. IC Insights expects Samsung's chipmaking capex to remain nearly flat year over year at $28.1 billion this year, so it doesn't seem intent on overtaking TSMC.

삼성 역시 2022년에 3나노공정 양산을 시작할 것이지만, 집적도면에서 TSMC나 인텔에는 뒤쳐질 것이다.

삼성의 2021년 투자금액은 281억달러로 TSMC를 추월할 것같지는 않다.

 

Intel remains an unpredictable contender since its foundry expansion plans could be supported by big subsidies in the U.S. and Europe. It's also reportedly interested in acquiring GlobalFoundries, AMD's former foundry partner, which would significantly accelerate those efforts.

Intel probably won't ever surpass TSMC in the "process race" to create smaller chips, but it could pick up third-party orders for lower-end chips at larger nodes. This could be a threat to TSMC, which still generated 59% of its revenue from older nodes (larger than 5nm and 7nm) last year.

So where will TSMC be in five years?

I believe TSMC will remain the world's top contract chipmaker over the next five years, despite its geopolitical threats and aggressive spending measures. I'm not sure if it can replicate its monstrous gains from the past five years through 2026, but the secular growth of the semiconductor market should propel its stock much higher and enable it to outperform the broader market.

 

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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing: The world's largest and most advanced chip fabricator

When it comes to semiconductor giants, look no further than Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM). The company churned out an incredible $48 billion in sales over the last year (though it still trails behind Intel's industry-leading $78 billion in sales), and is still growing at a swift pace (Intel, not so much). 

 

TSM has the most advanced chip manufacturing capabilities around. Its 7- and 5-nanometer technology foundries (making the smallest, most energy-efficient designs out there) represented half of all revenue in Q2 2021.

TSMC의 2021년2분기 매출중 절반이 7나노와 5나노 공정 매출이었다.

 

As auto technology advances and needs become increasingly complex (for EV powertrains, advanced safety and self-driving systems, in-car connectivity, etc.), TSM's automotive end-markets will grow. In fact, management chalked up last quarter's year-over-year growth of 20% to the high-end computing and automotive divisions.

 

Though it's handily in the lead on the chip fab front, TSM isn't resting on its laurels. The company's 4- and 3-nanometer chip foundries are on track to fire up in 2022, representing even more compact and power-efficient semiconductor designs that will eventually lead to more advanced auto capabilities -- all while eating up less battery capacity. For EV makers, increasing vehicle range on a charge is a critical part of winning the battle for consumer attention, so the auto industry certainly has a vested interest in TSM's improving prowess at building more power-efficient silicon. 

TSMC는 4나노와 3나노 공정을 2022년에 양산 예정.

 

TSM stock trades at an elevated price to free cash flow metric of 65 times trailing 12-month results. In part, that's because the company is lapping last year's depressed earnings during the first round of economic lockdowns, and it's also spending at an elevated rate right now to bring extra fabrication capacity online (like a new facility in Arizona). But this metric will improve in the coming quarters as TSM steadily grows, and a dividend currently yielding 1.5% doesn't hurt. This semiconductor industry leader is flush with net cash and has a clear roadmap to further expand in the EV market and other related technologies in the decade ahead.

 

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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is also leading the pack in foundries

The world's largest and most capable semiconductor foundry will also benefit handsomely in the 5G era.

TSMC는 글로벌 1위의 파운드리업체로서 5G 시대에 혜택을 받을 것이다.

 

5G requires more advanced leading-edge chips, and Taiwan Semi now has a multiyear lead over rivals in pulling off the most exacting, complicated semiconductor manufacturing processes.

5G는 더욱더 미세 공정으로 만든 칩을 필요로하는데 TSMC는 가장 정확하고 복잡한 공정을 수행하는데 있어서

경쟁자들에 비해 몇년 앞서있다.

 

Since it pulled ahead of rival Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) on the leading edge several years ago, TSM's stock has rallied; however, TSM's stock is actually down about 18% off its all-time highs.

 

The culprit could be the massive spending plans announced by rivals Samsung and Intel, which intend to catch up to TSM and build their own third-party foundry capabilities over the next several years. And while TSM posted strong 28% revenue growth last quarter, margins slipped, perhaps also dampening enthusiasm.

 

However, TSM has announced its own $100 billion spending plan over the next three years to satisfy booming demand and cement its industry-leading position. The U.S. government is also subsidizing TSM to build capacity in Arizona, because of its clear manufacturing lead.

TSMC는 증가하는 수요를 대비하고 산업내 1위 위치를 공고히하기 위하여, 향후 3년간 1000억달러를 

투자할 것이라고 발표했다.

 

In addition, margin compression was due to foreign exchange fluctuations, plus the faster ramp-up of the leading-edge 5-nanometer node. When a new node ramps, its margins are lower, but they expand as production matures. So neither of the reasons for the margin compression are really causes for concern.

 

Meanwhile, the long-term picture is exceptionally bullish. Management said it now expects to grow revenue at the high end of its 10%-15% five-year annualized growth rate -- and even that is probably conservative. Also encouraging, CEO C.C. Wei claimed that any sort of future semiconductor industry slowdown is likely to be less severe than in the past, because of the dual 5G and artificial-intelligence megatrends likely to grow every year this decade.

 

With the stock trading around 30 times earnings, and with its 1.5% dividend sure to grow over the next five years and beyond, now looks like a good time to add to this 5G leader.